Nigeria 2015 elections: Electoral Risk and Hot Spot Mapping

Elections are a crucial part of any democratic government and enable citizens to periodically determine who should lead them at every level of government.  Several elections in Nigeria have been marred by violent activities either during or post elections. Examples of this include the 2011 Presidential Elections. Many political sociologists, both locally and internationally, have argued that the greatest obstacle to democratic consolidation in Nigeria is electoral violence which could take many forms; inter-party, intra-party, ethno-religious, etc.

To better understand the mindset of Nigerians in relation to the 2015 General Elections, the CLEEN Foundation in collaboration with the NOI Polls and with funding support from the Open Society Initiative for West Africa (OSIWA) conducted the 2015 Election Perception Survey. The project surveyed 5000 Nigerians across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory as well as representing the 109 Senatorial Districts in Nigeria. The survey provided a very useful opportunity for Nigerians to reflect on their intention to participate in the 2015 elections and to outline their perceptions on elections security as well as the level of preparedness for the election.

Key findings:

1.       Perception of violence and intimidation in the build up to the election was relatively low; Nigerians believe current levels of insecurity would not have direct implications on the elections.

2.       Nigerians are oblivious of the growing challenge posed to their safety by the election.

3.       15% of Nigerians sampled were concerned about violence and intimidation during the 2015 general elections.

4.       Some senatorial districts recorded perception of violence which were significantly higher than the neighbouring districts, suggesting that some threats are so localized in some communities and does not affect the other areas.

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