As Nigerians prepare to vote in the
2015 general elections, Afrobarometer survey findings show that support for
democracy remains the majority view, though weaker than two years ago and
tempered by high levels of dissatisfaction and low approval ratings for elected
officials.
More than half (57%) of citizens say
Nigeria is a democracy “with major problems” or not a democracy at all.
Elected officials at all levels,
including the president and members of the National Assembly, receive weak
approval ratings and are perceived by a majority of citizens as corrupt.
Most Nigerians do not consider the
ballot an effective means of removing leaders who fail to perform in office and
do not see voters as playing a leading role in holding political officials
accountable.
Key findings
§
Two-thirds
(65%) of Nigerians favour democracy as the best form of government, a decrease
from 69% in 2012, and one in five (21%) say non-democratic forms can sometimes
be preferable (Figure 1).
§
While a
majority reject non-democratic alternatives, 15% approve of military rule, 11%
support one-party rule, and 9% approve of one-man rule.
§
Only 29% are
“very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied” with the way democracy is working in
Nigeria, while 68% are “not very” or “not at all” satisfied (Figure 2).
§
Ahead of the
elections, key political office holders receive weak approval ratings on their
performance (Figure 3), and public perceptions are characterized by low levels
of trust and high levels of perceived corruption.
§ Other election-related findings are detailed in Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 18, available at
www.afrobarometer.org, including findings on term limits, checks on political
power, and perceptions of corruption and trust in public officials.
Afrobarometer
Afrobarometer is an African-led,
non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on
democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across more than
30 countries in Africa. Five rounds of surveys were conducted between 1999 and
2013, and Round 6 surveys are currently under way (2014-2015). Afrobarometer
conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice
with nationally representative samples.
Fieldwork for Afrobarometer Round 6 in
Nigeria was conducted by Practical Sampling International (PSI) in
collaboration with the CLEEN Foundation. PSI interviewed 2,400 adult Nigerians
between 5 December 2014 and 19 January 2015. The sample covered 33 of Nigeria’s
36 states, as well as the Federal Capital Territory. It was not possible to
conduct interviews in three states in the North East zone – Adamawa, Borno, and
Yobe – due to unrest in the region, so substitutions of sampling units were
made from neighbouring states in the same zone. Thus, each of the country’s
zones is represented in proportion to its share of the national population. A sample
of this size yields results at the national level with a margin of sampling
error of +/-2% at a 95% confidence level. Previous Afrobarometer surveys have
been conducted in Nigeria in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2012.
Charts
Figure 1: Preferred form of government
| 2012-2014
Respondents were asked: Which of these three statements is closest to
your own opinion? (%)
Statement 1: Democracy is preferable to any
other kind of government.
Statement 2: In some
circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable.
Statement
3: For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have.
Figure 2: Satisfaction with democracy | by region | 2014
Respondents were asked:
Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in Nigeria? (%)
Figure 3: Performance ratings of leaders | 2014
Respondents
were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the following
people have performed their jobs over the past 12 months, or haven’t you heard
enough about them to say? (%)
For more information, please contact:
Kemi
Asiwaju, Executive Director
CLEEN
Foundation
Telephone:
(+234) 1-493-3195
Email: cleen@cleen.org
Follow us on Facebook and
Twitter @Afrobarometer.
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