The 2015 Election Viability Survey Report

As part of the preparation for the 2015 general elections and to better understand the mindset of Nigerians in relation to the elections, the CLEEN Foundation in collaboration with the NOI Polls and with funding support from the Open Society Initiative for West Africa (OSIWA) conducted the 2015 Election Viability Survey. The project surveyed 5000 Nigerians across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory as well as representing the 109 Senatorial Districts in Nigeria.

The fieldwork of the survey commenced in October 2014 and the survey provided a very useful opportunity for Nigerians to reflect on their intention to participate in the 2015 elections and to outline their perceptions on elections security as well as the level of preparedness for the election. The goal of the survey is to provide the government, security agencies, the election management body, the civil society and the general public.

One key factor distinguishing this report from other similar studies is our use of the Senatorial District as the baseline for analysis. Data was collected in all 109 Senatorial District before aggregation to State and Geopolitical Zones. This approach allows for more holistic and in-depth analyses and for reflection on both local and regional patterns.

Key findings based on Survey Objectives are as follows:

• The overwhelming majority of Nigerians (89%) expressed willingness to vote in the 2015 elections. This finding is true across gender, geo-political zones, and age groups.
• The largest proportion of Nigerians (76%) think intimidation and violence would NOT be an issue in the 2015 elections.
• Those who feel intimidation and violence would be an issue, think it would occur at polling units (66%) and Collation centres (52%). Most of them (68%) also think there should be an increase of security agents on electoral duty.

• The larger share of adult Nigerians (36%) think the military would be most effective in providing security in the 2015 elections. However a significant proportion (28%) think a combination of all security agencies would be most effective in providing security.

Key Recommendations and Conclusions from the survey are as follows:

• CLEEN Foundation could support the Federal Government through the means of advocacy to strengthen National security. This could be achieved by empowering the Nigerian Police force and increasing military presence particularly in areas that have been identified as prone to violence to help forestall security threats.
• Enhance security around the Polling Units and Collation Centres, as Nigerians are worried most about violence outbreak in these area.
• The decision to increase security presence (including military) should also be made public as it might sway the 11% of adult Nigerians who are not certain or not willing to vote.
• From past experience in Nigeria electoral violence is often caused by supporters who believe their candidates were illegitimately denied a win by INEC. Currently, 8% of adult Nigerians rated INEC poorly in the registration and dissemination of voters’ cards and as many as 11% of Nigerians mentioned they do not know how to rate INEC. CLEEN Foundation should work in tandem with INEC to identify means of changing the perception of Nigerians since a negative perception can influence voter behaviour.
• Politicians should be used as channels to promote violence free elections and take responsibility of their actions and the actions of their supporters

 

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To download the full report, visit www.cleen.org