2015 GENERAL ELECTIONS SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT

A consolidated Analysis of periodic Security Threat Assessment Reports January 2013 to January 2015

The Security Threat Assessment (STA) is an incidence mapping and reporting tool developed by the CLEEN Foundation with support from the McArthur Foundation. The tool is designed to provide a panoramic view of the security situation across the country as activities build up towards the 2015 elections. Between January 2013 and January 2015, we have published nine STA reports which map the election environment over the past 25 months. This aggregate report combines the 9 periodic STA reports and present a weighed view of the environment for the 2015 elections.

The national aggregation of the STAs reveals that 11 out the 37 states and the FCT (representing 29.7%) are in red, 20 states plus the FCT (56.8%) are in amber and only 5 states (13.5%) are in green. The summary of the status of the 36 states and the FCT is presented below:

•    Red: Adamawa, Benue, Borno, Imo, Kaduna, Kano, Nassarawa, Plateau, Rivers, Taraba and Yobe.
•    Amber: Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Katsina, Kogi, Lagos, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Sokoto, and Zamfara.
•    Green: Cross Rivers, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kwara and Osun.

Overview of Security Threats

A.    Initial Security Threats now resolved or over taken by events
a.    The need for code of conduct against hateful speech (the Abuja Accord)
b.    Merger of opposition parties and possible violent disagreement over leadership and candidates
c.    Zoning of Candidates
d.    Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
e.    Intra-party contentions
f.    Inter-party defections
g.    Review of legal framework

B.    Current National Security threats: Trends and Outlook
a.    Insurgency
b.    Hate and inciting speech
c.    Communal violence and other localized conflict
d.    Militant groups, vigilantes and youth thuggery
e.    Proliferation of small arms and light weapons
f.    Performance of security institutions
g.    Fear of electoral manipulation
h.    Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
i.    Distribution of Permanent Voters Card (PVCs)
j.    Postponement of the elections.

Recommendations
i.    Efforts to contain the insurgency in the northeast, and stop its spread into other regions and states should be intensified; The government, NEMA and security agencies should set up rapid response strategy in the event of a crisis, both humanitarian and security, especially around flash point areas;

ii.    All political parties and candidates should be encouraged to focus on the issues around the election and avoid hate or inciting speech. There should be effective monitoring to ensure that parties and candidates abide by the Abuja Accord;

iii.    The existence and prevalence of informal police groups such as vigilantes across the country underscores the need for collaboration between the formal and informal policing groups in the country, provided there is a framework for such collaboration and partnership. There is a need for mapping, identifying and capacity building and the development of a code of conduct for these groups and issues such recruitment, training, accountability needs to be addressed in the Code of conduct;

iv.    The Inter Agency Coordinating Committee on Election Security (ICCES) must be seen to have synergized response and approach to the perceived threats to security during the election. They should pay special attention to the violence hotspots with a view to ensuring that adequate resources are directed towards contain them. It must also ensure that security officials deployed on election duty are provided with adequate logistics, welfare and are also held accountable for their performance;

v.    INEC should be more aggressive in its distribution of the PVCs and deadlines for collection should be extended as much as practicable; INEC and security agencies must work assiduously to ensure that IDPs are able to exercise their franchise as much as is practicable, and that the location of their camps are well secured throughout the process;

vi.    INEC should maintain transparency in its organisation and conduct of the elections. Where it encounters challenges capable of impacting the electoral process, this should be communicated promptly to stakeholders and immediate measures taken to address the challenge.

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To download the full report, visit www.cleen.org or cleenfoundation.blogspot.com