·
Delay or
non-arrival of election materials and personnel may be misinterpreted as an
attempt to rig the election.
·
History of
electoral violence in the state and incidents of violence that have
characterised the campaign period.
·
Mutual suspicion
of rigging between the parties and candidates, and threats of violence
·
Possibility
of influence from either the federal or regional level
Key Mitigating Factors:
·
Timely
distribution of election materials and personnel by INEC.
·
Enforcement of
code of conduct for political parties and readiness to prosecute electoral
offenders.
·
Training of DPOs,
Area commanders and other security agencies on Election Security Management.
·
Strategic and
early deployment of adequate security to identified areas of threat in the
state.
·
Adequate sensitization of the electorate on the electoral process and
need to eschew violence.
Introduction
The Ekiti state
governorship election scheduled for June 21, 2014 is attracting significant
interest because of the anticipated keen contest expected from the three major
contending political parties and candidates, as well as concern about election
related violence. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is also
being watched by those interested in the conduct and outcome of this election.
After the not-so-impressive conduct of the Ekiti Governorship election, many
regard the Ekiti state election as a test-case of INEC’s preparedness for the 2015
general elections. Attention is also on the security agencies, particularly the
police, with regards to election security. Historically, violence has always
been associated with elections in Ekiti
State, and already
pockets of violence were recorded during party primaries and the on-going
campaigns. Moreover, coming at a time many would regard as the most challenging
for Nigeria
security wise, the Ekiti election will no doubt test the capacity of security
agencies to provide security for future elections. This edition
of CLEEN Foundation’s Election Security Brief (ESB) examines the security
threats and mitigating factors as well as recommends measures to prevent
electoral violence in the Ekiti election.
Brief
History of Ekiti State
Ekiti State, located in South West Nigeria, was created on October 1, 1996 from the old Ondo State by the military government of late General Sani Abacha. It is bounded in the South by Ondo State, on the North by Kwara State, on the East by Kogi State. The state has 3 senatorial districts, 6 federal constituencies, 26 State House of Assembly Seats and 16 Local Government Areas. Ekiti Central and Ekiti North Senatorial Districts both have five local governments each, while Ekiti South Senatorial District has six local government areas. The culturally homogenous people of Ekiti speak the same dialect of the Yoruba language known as Ekiti. However, there are slight variations of the dialect in some areas based on their proximity to Ekiti’s borders with neighbouring States. Agriculture is the main occupation of the people of Ekiti. It provides income and employment for more than 75% of the population of Ekiti State. The state is also blessed with mineral resources which remained mostly untapped. With a population estimate of 2,737,186 and total land mass of 6,353 km2 (2,453 sq mi), Ekiti State is also reputed for the academic prowess of the citizens and holds the record of producing the highest number of professors in Nigeria.
For the 2014
gubernatorial election, Ekiti has 732,166 registered voters, 2,195 polling
units, 2,803 voting points, 117 collation centres and 16 local government
collation centres.
The local government areas are grouped
into three senatorial districts:
S/N
|
Senatorial
District
|
Local government
Areas in each district
|
1.
|
Ekiti
North Senatorial District
|
Ido Osi, Ikole, Ilejemeje, Moba, Oye
|
2.
|
Ekiti
Central Senatorial District
|
Ado Ekiti, Efon, Ekiti West, Ijero, Irepodun/Ifelodun
|
3.
|
Ekiti
South Senatorial District
|
Ekiti East, Ekiti South West, Emure, Gbonyin, Ikere,
Ise/Orun
|
Politics
in Ekiti State
Upon creation, Ekiti State
was administered by two military administrators: Lt. Col. Mohammed Bawa from
October 1996 to August 1998 and Navy Captain Atanda Yusuf from August 1998 to
May 1999. Ondo State, from which Ekiti was carved from,
was known for supporting progressive political parties, but with supports
sometimes changing towards grassroots candidates who may not necessarily belong
to popular progressive platforms. This trait was reflected in the outcome of
the transition election in 1999 with Governor Niyi Adebayo of the Alliance for Democracy
(AD) becoming the first civilian governor of the state. AD was an offshoot of
the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) formed by prominent followers of Chief Obafemi
Awolowo. The Alliance
for Democracy effectively won the six south west states, including Ekiti, in
the 1999 election. Conversely, in 2003 the entire south west states, with the
exception of Lagos
State, were won by the
PDP. Mr. Ayo Fayose of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was elected as
Governor, as part of the PDP almost-clean sweep of the South west. Ayo Fayose’s
tenure was terminated three years later through impeachment by the State House
of Assembly. Fayose’s impeachment on October 16 by the State Assembly (and
brief replacement by Speaker Aderemi) was declared illegal by Federal Government;
the period was followed by a prolonged political crisis.
Ekiti State
was consequently administered by Retired General Tunji Olurin, who was
appointed administrator after the declaration of a state of emergency by
President Olusegun Obasanjo. On April 27, 2007 Olurin was replaced by Tope
Ademiluyi as Acting Governor. Segun Oni emerged from controversial primaries
within the PDP and was elected governor in the 2007 election which was marred
by widespread irregularities. The then Action Congress (AC) candidate, Dr.
Kayode Fayemi challenged his election and forced a rerun in May 2009. The May
2009 rerun was characterized by even worse rigging and the election was
disputed again. Eventually, after three years, the election of Oni was
terminated by the court and Dr. Kayode Fayemi was declared the duly elected
governor of Ekiti
State.
The PDP is keen on
winning back those states the party lost to the opposition in the South west. A
successful outing for the PDP in Ekiti
State may be the needed
booster for recovering its lost political edge in the region. On the other hand, since democratic
transition in 1999, none of the governors have successfully been elected for
two terms. While PDP Ayo Fayose is attempting to return for a second term
(technically), the incumbent Governor, Kayode Fayemi will attempt to come back
for a second term in office. Whichever way the election goes, both the PDP and
APC may have the opportunity to break the one term jinx.
Parties
and Candidates in the Gubernatorial Election
Eighteen (18) political parties have been
cleared to contest and field candidates for the June 21 gubernatorial election
and they include the following:
S/N
|
Political Party
|
Candidate
|
1.
|
Action Alliance (AA)
|
Mr Opeyemi Akinyemi
|
2.
|
All Progressive Congress
(APC)
|
Governor Kayode Fayemi
|
3.
|
Accord Party (AP)
|
Mr Kole Ajayi
|
4.
|
African Democratic Congress (ADC)
|
Mr. Okoko Bola
|
5.
|
African Peoples’ Alliance,
(APA)
|
Mr Adebayo Ogunlola
|
6.
|
Allied Congress Party of Nigeria, (ACPN)
|
Mr Peter Bamigbade
|
7.
|
Alliance for Democracy (AD)
|
Mr Osekita Victor
|
8.
|
Citizens Popular Party (CPP)
|
Mr. Ayodele Olayinka
|
9.
|
KOWA Party (KP)
|
Pastor Ade Joseph
|
10.
|
Labour Party (LP)
|
Mr Opeyemi Bamidele
|
11.
|
Mega Progressive Peoples Party, (MPPP)
|
Mr Akinbola Joseph
|
12.
|
National Conscience Party, (NCP)
|
Mr. Ilesanmi Emmanuel
|
13.
|
People’s Democratic Change (PDC)
|
Mr. banjo Gboyega
|
14.
|
Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN)
|
Mr Gbenga Adekunle
|
15.
|
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
|
Chief Ayo Fayose
|
16.
|
Progressive Peoples’ Alliance (PPA)
|
Mr Animasanu Goke
|
17.
|
Social Democratic Party (SDP)
|
Mr Adekola Ayo
|
18.
|
United Democratic Party, (UDP)
|
Mr. Adeniyi Philip
|
Regardless of the
numbers of parties and candidates, the real contest is expected to be between
APC, PDP and LP.
APC candidate: Kayode Fayemi
Dr.
Kayode Fayemi emerged as the Governor of Ekiti State in 2010 after three years
of contesting the outcome of the 2007 election through the legal system.
Fayemi’s campaign has been centered on what his supporters regards as his
excellent record and performance. Implementation of his 8 points agenda in his
first term was described by many as pace setting. His administration’s 8-point
agenda is centered on: Governance, Infrastructural Development, Modernizing
Agriculture, Education and Human Capital Development, Health Care Services,
Industrial Development, Tourism Development, and Gender Equality and Woman
Empowerment.
Before his foray into
mainstream politics, Dr. Kayode Fayemi was a technocrat of no mean achievement,
though relatively unknown. He was a former Director of the Centre for Democracy
& Development, a research and training institution dedicated to the study
and promotion of democratic development, peace-building and human security in Africa. As such he was better known to civil society
practitioners who saw his interest in politics as a welcome development. He was
a lecturer, journalist, researcher and Strategy Development adviser in Nigeria and the United Kingdom. The incumbent
Governor of Ekiti State was on Saturday 14th April 2014 endorsed as the
governorship candidate of the APC in the state's gubernatorial elections
scheduled for June 21. This endorsement
marked the effort at the constitutional second term of four years which has not
been enjoyed by any past governor. The APC structures in the south-west, Edo State,
Nasarawa and Imo State, etc, have featured prominently in
his campaign.
Labour Party Candidate: Opeyemi Bamidele
Honourable
Opeyemi Bamidele is a trained lawyer, an experienced politician and political
activist. He is a serving Honourable member of the Federal House of Representatives
representing Ekiti
State from the Ado
Ekiti/Ifelodun-Ifelodun (Federal Constituency). He has served in various
capacities in the Lagos State government administration of Chief Bola Ahmed
Tinubu and Incumbent Governor of Lagos
State, Babatunde Fashola.
Elected on the platform of the All Progressive Congress (APC), Honourable
Opeyemi Bamidele decamped to the Labour Party due to political differences with
the leadership of APC. A former President of the National Association of
Nigeria Students (NANS), he was an active member of NADECO, a pro-democracy
group which opposed military annulment of the June 12 election. Starting off
early in politics, he was the National Director of Publicity, Alliance for Democracy (AD) 2000 and 2004. In 1993, He was
National Accreditation Officer of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) National
Convention, where Bashorun MKO Abiola emerged as presidential candidate.
PDP Candidate: Ayo Fayose
Ayo
Fayose, a grassroots politician was the second democratically elected Governor of
Ekiti State. Elected on the platform of the PDP, Fayose and his deputy, Mrs.
Biodun Olujimi, were impeached by 24 of the 26 law makers of Ekiti State House
of Assembly over allegation of corruption. Fayose is still very popular in Ekiti State
and commands good followership, perhaps more than other candidates that
contested the PDP primary against him. His popularity, despite the burden of
impeachment for corrupt enrichment might have informed his preference by the
PDP as its candidate for the June 21 elections. PDP is keen at winning back Ekiti State.
It was no surprise therefore that the ex-governor emerged as the candidate of
the PDP on March 22, having won the party’s primary with 462 votes
out of the 470 votes cast by delegates. Though the declaration of Fayose was
disputed by Senator Gbenga Aluko, who claimed to have emerged as the party’s
consensus candidate out of 13 aspirants, the dispute was later settled with the
Senator accepting the party’s position and expressing his support for Fayose.
The corruption cases against the ex-governor remains an albatross which he
would have to deal with to emerge as a governor for the second time.
Synthesis of Security Threats
The following are the key threats to
security in the 21 June 2014 Ekiti
State gubernatorial election:
·
Non arrival or delay in the arrival of election
materials and personnel is a risk factor which must be avoided. These may be
regarded as a deliberate ploy by the parties, especially when it happens in
areas where they have strength and keen interest.
·
Mutual suspicion by political parties and their
candidates is considered a risk factor. Unsubstantiated claims of recruitment
of mercenaries and plans to rig the election are being spread around the state.
Supporters of political parties eager for electoral victory may be on edge
before, during and after elections if things seem to be working against their
party’s interest.
·
Unregulated utterances and threats of violence
emerging from pre-campaign political gatherings is a major risk factor. Leaders
of leading parties in the elections have publicly threatened violence if the
election is rigged, thereby preparing the minds of their supporters for
electoral violence.
·
Intervention by extra geo-political interests in
the election may lead to violence. Likely use of federal influence in support
of PDP candidate is being insinuated by the APC, while the PDP and LP on the
other hand are claiming that APC leadership based in Lagos is all out to influence the election.
·
The decision of INEC not to use the card reader
for the election as against its earlier plan is a major risk factor for the
election. Some political parties and
their supporters hold the position that the card reader has the advantage of
reducing rigging and other electoral fraud. As such, INEC’s decision not to use
the machine may be an excuse for violence by parties who may lose at polls.
·
Suspicion about bias by security agencies in
favour of any of the parties or candidates is a risk factor for violence during
the Ekiti Poll. There is suspicion among some quarters that the federal
government may use security forces to intimate voters during the election.
·
Inadequate manning of polling units and security
provision for election workers is a major risk factor. Observers noted that there
were inadequate security provisions during the CVR exercise.
Potential
Flash Points
The best strategy to
effectively stem electoral violence during the June 21 election is for security
agencies to be prepared to deal with issues of electoral violence in all the
177 wards and 16 local government areas across Ekiti State.
Additionally, preparing for the worst case scenario may be the best, as contest
for the governorship election increases in intensity. Ishan, the Governor’s area, as well as, every area where major
political figures and appointees comes from need to be watched. Every point of
entry from surrounding states, including Kogi, Ondo and Kwara state, need to be
watched, just as was done during the Ondo state governorship election in 2012.
However, in terms of records of electoral violence occurrences, the following
areas are regarded as the hotspots to pay very careful attention:
Ø
Emure:
historically has always been problematic and right now, every candidate will
want to win there because it is easier to have an LGA once you win in Emure.
Ø
Ikere: has a reputation for being volatile. There
seems to be more sympathy for the PDP though the APC is very strong there. Any
electoral outcome against the popular will of the people may result in violence.
Ø
Ijero and
Ikole: also needs also to be seriously watched
Ø
Irepodun:
PDP’s Ayo Fayose and Labour Party’s Opeyemi Bamidele are from this local
government area. This significantly raises the likelihold of violence.
Ø
Efon and
Oye also need to be watched, particularly Oye where the incumbent Governor,
Kayode Fayemi comes from.
Ø
Ido Osi: The
people of Ido Osi are still bitter that their votes did not count in the
disputed election between Kayode Fayemi and their son, Segun Oni. Despite the
defection of Segun Oni to the APC, the people are said to be prepared to ensure
that their vote counts and particularly they are prepared for Kayode Fayemi.
Ø
Gbonyin: The
Speaker of Ekiti State House of Assembly is from here and it is a spot to
watch.
Threats
mitigation factors
The following are mitigation factors that
may dilute the potency of the threats analysed above:
·
INEC needs to ensure the timely distribution of
election materials and arrival of personnel to the various units. This is
important to ensure timely completion of the process, calm frayed nerves and
remove suspicion of manipulation.
·
Regular stakeholders meeting with political
parties, candidates and supporters is important to caution them about making
claims they cannot substantiate. Importantly, there may be the need for the
application or enforcement of the code of conduct to guide the political parties.
·
Wider publicity to sensitize electorates about
the election process, particularly regarding the non usage of the card reader
is necessary. It is important that INEC gains parties’ and public confidence
that the usage or non-usage of card reader will have no effect on the conduct
and outcome of election.
·
As was done during the Ondo State
governorship elections in 2012, securing Ekiti state access points from
neighboring states will help reduce risk of importation of mercenaries and
thugs for this election.
·
Confidence of the public must be built on the
neutrality and professionalism of security agencies. Importantly, the Police
and other security agencies must ensure 100% neutrality during the elections.
·
Adequate security must be provided for election
materials and officials to deter would-be trouble makers. This is particularly
important in areas identified as hotspots.
·
Lastly, INEC and security agencies must send a
clear and strong signal that they will not condone electoral malfeasance and
that offenders will be duly prosecuted.
Conclusion
and Recommendations
Campaigns for the
Ekiti governorship election have already witnessed some level of inter-party
violence. As noted by observers, the level of violence already witnessed is yet
to be as volatile as those experienced in past elections held in Ekiti State.
This may be due to pro-active steps which stakeholders have been taken.
However, there is the need for greater sensitization of the public, political
parties and their supporters on the need to eschew violence during the
elections. INEC and the police need to caution political party leaders to stop
using words and phrases such as “rig and burn” which may prepare the minds of
their supporters for violence. On the other hand, such violence-coated
statements may intimidate electorates and discourage many from exercising their
electoral franchise. The following recommendations are suggested to further
help deal with the risks to the June 21 election:
·
INEC needs to build the confidence of the public
for them to accept that the non-usage of the card reader machine for the
governorship election will not affect both the its administration and outcome.
·
Logistics
arrangement for early deployment of election materials and personnel should be
firmed up and back-up plans made.
·
The police and other security agencies need to
have plans for early and adequate security at the polling units. Moreover, allowances
for security personnel should be paid up-front to ensure unhindered security
presence at polls.
·
A cross-cutting theme in
every campaign across political parties is mandate protection. There is need
for voter education by the political parties, INEC, NOA, the media and NGOs to
educate the public on mandate protection. Voters who are keen to protect their
mandate should be educated about what mandate protection is all about. This is
necessary to counter the current misperception that mandate protection entails
inflicting violence on perceived perpetrators of electoral fraud.
·
Finally, it is important
that political parties are encouraged to positively engage women and youths in
the electoral process. Rather than being used as foot soldiers or agents of
terror against opposing parties, the knowledge and strength of the youth could
be utilized positively by the parties during campaigns and rallies. Provisions
should be made for women and youths to understudy party administration and
leadership for continuity and sustainability in the parties.
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