ELECTION SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT: TOWARDS THE
2016 GOVERNORSHIP ELECTION IN ONDO STATE
Election
Security Threat Assessment: Towards the 2016 Governorship Election in Ondo state
Introduction
All other things being equal, the people
of Ondo state will go to the poll on 26 November, 2016, to elect a governor who
will lead the state for the next four years. Like all others before it, this
gubernatorial election promises to be, arguably, the most keenly contested in
the recent history of the state, especially under the fourth republic. It also
has potentials for violence for obvious reasons. Above all else, the presence
of election risk factors, most notablya history of electoral violence, contentious
party primaries and candidate selection, intra-party conflict andfractionalization,
litigations, counter-litigations and contradictory court orders/pronouncements
attest to these possibilities.The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and
the All Progressive Congress (APC) would appear to be the worst hit in these
contradictions.Moreover, the electoral stakes are very high and the major
political parties are strategizing to outdo one another. The attendant heating
up of the political temperature of the state, if not well-managed,could
generate violence of immense proportion during and immediate after the
election.This places huge responsibility on the Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC),security agencies, mass media and other stakeholders in the
overall governance of the election. The way these agencies comport themselves
could help to salvage the situation or exacerbate it. This analysis explores
potential security risks and flashpoints during the governorship election in
the state. It also reflects some mitigating factors to could help remedy the
situation.
A Brief
History of Ondo State
Ondo state, popularly referred to as the
“Sunshine State”, was created from the defunct Western State on 3rd
February, 1976. It covers a land area of 14,793 square kilometers with
its administrative capital at Akure. The population of the state in the
1991 census figures was 2,249,548 while year 2006 census puts the population at
3,441,024, comprising 1,761,263 males and 1,679,761 females.
Located in the southwestern zone of Nigeria, the
state is made up of 18 Local Government Areas, and is bounded in the north by
Ekiti and Kogi States, in the east by Edo State; in the west by Osun and Ogun
states and in the south by the Atlantic Ocean. Ondo State is located entirely
within the tropics. The tropical climate of the state is broadly of two
seasons: rainy season (April-October) and dry season (November –
March). A temperature throughout the year ranges between 21oc
to 29oc and humidity is relatively high. The annual rainfall
varies from 2,000mm in the southern areas to 1,150mm in the northern
areas. The state enjoys luxuriant vegetation with high forest zone (rain
forest) in the south and sub-savannah forest in the northern fringe. The state
is also endowed with numerous rivers, creeks and lakes, including Owena, Ala,
Oluwa, Oni, Awara, Ogbese and Ose.
Onso State is peopled predominantly by Yorubas
who speak various dialects of the Yoruba language such as the Akoko, Akure,
Apoi, Idanre, Ijaw, Ikale, Ilaje, Ondo and the Owo. The state is blessed with
resourceful, industrious and hospitable people. Her crop of educated
elite has led to its being classified as one of the most educationally advanced
states in Nigeria. The people are mostly subsistence farmers, fishermen
and traders. The life patterns of the people represent an embodiment of
culture, ranging from the local foodstuff to the mode of dressing, dancing,
wood crafts, such as, carved house posts and decorated doors. Antiquities
and artifacts are also preserved in palaces of traditional rulers some of which
have been declared as National Monuments.
The state has three Senatorial Districts; eight
Federal House of Representative seats, 23 State House of Assembly Seat, 18
Local Government Areas. The three Senatorial Districts are Ondo North made up
of Akoko North East, Akoko North West, Akoko South East, Akoko South West,
Owola and Ose Local Government Areas; Ondo Central consisting of Akure South,
Akure North; Ifedore/Igaraoke, Ondo West and Ondo East; and Ondo South, which
consists of Odigbo, Irele, Ilaje, Ese Odo, Okitipupa and Ile Oluji/Oke Igbo
LGAs. The distribution of LGAs according to Senatorial District is shown in the
table below:
Table I: LGAs by Senatorial Districts in Ondo
state
S/N
|
Senatorial
District
|
LGAs
|
1.
|
Ondo North
|
Akoko North East, Akoko North West, Akoko South
East, Akoko South West, Owola and Ose Local Government Areas
|
2
|
Ondo Central
|
Akure South, Akure North; Ifedore/Igaraoke,
Ondo West and Ondo East
|
3
|
Ondo South
|
Odigbo, Irele, Ilaje, Ese Odo, Okitipupa and
Ile Oluji/Oke Igbo
|
The Economy of Ondo State
The economy of Ondo state is basically agrarian
strong bias in farming, fishing, lumbering and trading. The state is reputed
for large scale production of cocoa, palm produce and rubber. Other crops
like maize, yam and cassava are produced in large quantities. Sixty-five
percent of the state labour force is in the agriculture sub-sector. The
state is also blessed with very rich forest resources where some of the most
exotic timber in Nigeria abounds.
The State is equally blessed with extensive
deposits of crude oil, bitumen, glass sand, kaolin, granites and limestone.
Therefore, the state has great potentials for rapid industrial growth in view
of its raw materials base.
The tourism potentials of the state is also high
as its historical sites, long coastline, lakes, forest and cultural events can
be developed for tourism. However, these very huge investment potentials
in the state remain largely untapped over the years due to a combination of
technical and administrative reasons.
Politics
in Ondo State
As part and parcel of the defunct
Western region, what is today referred to as Ondo state could be said to have a
deep political history that dates back to the anti-colonial struggles under the
influence of the Action Group (AG). It is, therefore, hardly surprising to note
that the politics of the state since independence has manifested progressive
tendencies associated with the AG, which held sway in the region in the first
republic.
During the second republic (1979-1983),
by which time the state had been created, the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN),
AG’s successor in the South West, continued to dominate the politics of the
state. During the period, the late Chief Michael AdekunleAjasin of the UPN won
the governorship election of 1979. However, by the second election of 1983,
Akinwole Michael Omoboriowo, Ajasin’s deputy from 1979-1983, decamped to the
National Party of Nigeria (NPN), the ruling party at the centre, to contest the
governorship race with Ajasin. As it turned out, Omoboriowo was officially declared
winner of the governorship election by the Federal Electoral Commission
(FEDECO). The declaration heralded an unprecedented level of post-election
violence across the state, popularly referred to as operation wet e, during which many lives were lost and properties
worth several billions of Naira destroyed. The state was, as a source puts it,
‘the house of war’ during the period. Ajasin of the UPN eventually reclaimed
his mandate and Omoboriowo flew the state.
During the short-lived third republic
(1992-1993), Chief BamideleOlumilua of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) won
the governorship election. His reign was, however, cut short with the abortion
of the republic via the annulment of 12 June 1999 presidential election by the
Babangida regime. As the country returned to democracy in 1999, following years
of military autocracy, Chief Adebayo Adefarati of the Alliance for Democracy
(AD) was elected Governor of the state. Adefarati, however, lost in his
re-election bid in 2003 when Dr Olusegun Agagu of the PDP was elected the
governor of the state. Agagu, who was earlier declared to have won his
reelection bid in 2007, eventually lost to the incumbent governor of the state,
Olusegun Mimiko of the Labour Party (LP), who happened to be a member of his
inner cabinet, after protracted legal battles over the winner of the election.
The race for the governorship seat in the
20 October, 2012 election was keenly contested among there major parties,
namely the LP, Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN) and PDP. The spate of
decamping, especially from the LP to other parties, added more intensity to the
race. Many had contended that since until then, no governor/party had been able
to win a second term in the state under the fourth republic that Mimiko of LP
would lose to another candidate. However, asit turned out, Mimiko defied the
odds and made history as the first governor to win a second term in the state
under the fourth republic. This feat was attributed to an alleged agreement
between Mimiko and President Jonathan, which required that the former defect to
the PDP after the election. That eventually happened.
In the race for the 2016 governorship
election, it is important that the dramatis
personae in the 2012 governorship election remain key players. Although
Mimiko is no longer contesting having done so and won twice, he is believed to
have been very central in the determination of his successor, showing strong
preference for Jegede over Jimoh Ibrahim. Akeredolu Ale, the APC candidate, was
also the candidate of ACN in 2012. OlusolaOke, one of those who contested the
primary on the platform of APC, but lost out and defected to pick the ticket
for the AD, was the PDP candidate in 2012 election. These add interesting
dimensions to the 2016 gubernatorial election.
Parties
and Candidates in the 26 November, 2016 Gubernatorial Election
The race for the Alagbaka Government house is a
keen contest with 28 political parties fielding candidates. The candidates are:
S/N
|
STATE
|
NAME OF CANDIDATE
|
SEX
|
PARTY
|
AGE
|
QUALIFICATION
|
ONDO
|
||||||
1
|
GOVERNOR
|
AMUDA OLADARE
|
M
|
A
|
55
|
MBA
|
DEPUTY
|
AMBODE ALEXANDER
ABIODUN
|
M
|
A
|
51
|
PHD
|
|
2
|
GOVERNOR
|
YINKA OLOYEDE OROKOTO
|
M
|
AA
|
54
|
LLB, BL.
|
DEPUTY
|
ABIOLA OJO
|
M
|
AA
|
46
|
B. TECH
|
|
3
|
GOVERNOR
|
FRANCIS ADETUWO
OGUNJUMELO
|
M
|
ACPN
|
68
|
FCMA, FCA
|
DEPUTY
|
IKUSIKA GRACE OLANIKE
|
F
|
ACPN
|
63
|
NCE
|
|
4
|
GOVERNOR
|
OLUSOLA ALEX OKE
|
M
|
AD
|
60
|
LLB, BL.
|
DEPUTY
|
DAUDA GANNY OLUWADARE
|
M
|
AD
|
59
|
ADV. DIPLOMA
|
|
5
|
GOVERNOR
|
MARGARETA MODUPE OGUNYOKU (OJO)
|
F
|
ADC
|
60
|
DIPLOMA
|
DEPUTY
|
AGANMAYO ISEOLUWA
|
M
|
ADC
|
34
|
ND
|
|
6
|
GOVERNOR
|
OLUYI FOLASHADE HELLEN
|
F
|
APA
|
47
|
GRADE II
|
DEPUTY
|
OWOEYE DAMILOLA
JONATHAN
|
M
|
APA
|
36
|
NABTEB
|
|
7
|
GOVERNOR
|
OLUWAROTIMI ODUNAYO
AKEREDOLU
|
M
|
APC
|
60
|
LLB, BL
|
DEPUTY
|
ALFRED AGBOOLA AJAYI
|
M
|
APC
|
47
|
WAEC
|
|
8
|
GOVERNOR
|
FRANCIS ADEYEMI ALAO
|
M
|
APGA
|
61
|
MSC
|
DEPUTY
|
FAMUSIPE RUFUS IDOWU
|
M
|
APGA
|
51
|
NCE
|
|
9
|
GOVERNOR
|
FUNMILAYO JENYO
ATAUNOKO
|
M
|
BNPP
|
43
|
SSCE
|
DEPUTY
|
OLAJOBI OLALEKAN
ABIMBOLA
|
M
|
BNPP
|
45
|
BA. HONS
|
|
10
|
GOVERNOR
|
FASUA PETER OYELEYE
|
M
|
CPP
|
55
|
B.SC
|
DEPUTY
|
OWOLABI SALIU YUSUF
|
M
|
CPP
|
68
|
M.SC
|
|
11
|
GOVERNOR
|
ADEEYO MATTHEW
BOLORUNDARO
|
M
|
DPC
|
59
|
B. TECH
|
DEPUTY
|
OLAIYA REMILEKUN
MARGARETH
|
F
|
DPC
|
42
|
SSCE
|
|
12
|
GOVERNOR
|
FALANA OLAMIDE JULIANA
|
F
|
DPP
|
33
|
B.TECH
|
DEPUTY
|
LAWRENCE KEHINDE
FESTUS
|
M
|
DPP
|
42
|
WAEC
|
|
13
|
GOVERNOR
|
ODEDEYI OLUMUYIWA JOHN
|
M
|
HDP
|
40
|
B.SC
|
DEPUTY
|
OLOWOKANGA SAMUEL
|
M
|
HDP
|
57
|
B.SC
|
|
14
|
GOVERNOR
|
SAMUEL OLUWATOYIN
AKOGUNRIN
|
M
|
ID
|
37
|
B.SC
|
DEPUTY
|
FAMUAGUN OLUWATOSIN
MOSES
|
M
|
ID
|
35
|
ND
|
|
15
|
GOVERNOR
|
DANIEL OLUDARE
OGUNGBEMI
|
M
|
KOWA
|
36
|
LLB, BL
|
DEPUTY
|
FAUSAT ADEOLA ALIU
|
F
|
KOWA
|
62
|
NCE
|
|
16
|
GOVERNOR
|
ADEUTI STEPHEN TAYE
|
M
|
LP
|
65
|
MBA
|
DEPUTY
|
AKINBAMIRE ADEBAYO
BENSON
|
M
|
LP
|
60
|
PGD
|
|
17
|
GOVERNOR
|
OBAYORIJU JIMOH ABASS
|
M
|
NCP
|
46
|
HND
|
DEPUTY
|
OWOLABI OLALEKAN
STEPHEN
|
M
|
NCP
|
35
|
B.SC, PGD
|
|
18
|
GOVERNOR
|
OLUWADARE BADA
|
M
|
NNPP
|
63
|
BM & S
|
DEPUTY
|
JONATHAN AJINDE SUNDAY
|
M
|
NNPP
|
59
|
WAEC, RN
|
|
19
|
GOVERNOR
|
AYIBIOWU MOSES IGE
|
M
|
NUP
|
43
|
MBA
|
DEPUTY
|
OJO AKINWALE OLADAPO
|
M
|
NUP
|
42
|
M.SC
|
|
20
|
GOVERNOR
|
OLUWASEGUN ODIDI
|
M
|
PDC
|
45
|
B.SC
|
DEPUTY
|
OLATUNJI LEO SEGUN
|
M
|
PDC
|
39
|
LLB, BL
|
|
21
|
GOVERNOR
|
JIMOH IBRAHIM
FOLORUNSO
|
M
|
PDP
|
49
|
LLB, MPA
|
DEPUTY
|
ALABI EBENEZER OMOTAYO
|
M
|
PDP
|
49
|
B.SC
|
|
22
|
GOVERNOR
|
ADENIYAN ABIODUN
DANIEL
|
M
|
PPA
|
44
|
B.SC
|
DEPUTY
|
OLADELE TOLANI
BAMITALE
|
F
|
PPA
|
38
|
HND
|
|
23
|
GOVERNOR
|
ORUNMOLUYI TEMIDOLA
OLAGBEGI
|
F
|
PPN
|
55
|
GRADE II
|
DEPUTY
|
ONISEMO MICHAEL
OLADAPO
|
M
|
PPN
|
36
|
HND
|
|
24
|
GOVERNOR
|
ARIGBEDE ROLAND GBENGA
|
M
|
PRP
|
39
|
OND
|
DEPUTY
|
OLADELE PAUL
OLUWASESAN
|
M
|
PRP
|
36
|
B.SC
|
|
25
|
GOVERNOR
|
OLU AGUNLOYE
|
M
|
SDP
|
68
|
B.SC, PHD
|
DEPUTY
|
MODUPE AKINDELE
MARTINS
|
F
|
SDP
|
43
|
HND
|
|
26
|
GOVERNOR
|
OLUGBENGA AKINWALE
FALAIYE
|
M
|
UDP
|
42
|
B.SC
|
DEPUTY
|
SEIBU LAMIDI
|
M
|
UDP
|
51
|
B.ED
|
|
27
|
GOVERNOR
|
AIDI BOLARINWA ELIJAH
|
M
|
UPN
|
49
|
LLB, BL, MBA
|
DEPUTY
|
TIEWEI JULIUS
|
M
|
UPN
|
56
|
B.SC
|
|
28
|
GOVERNOR
|
ANTHONY ADENIYI
ADENIRANYE
|
M
|
YDP
|
37
|
MSC
|
DEPUTY
|
EGBEOLA OLAWALE
MARTINS
|
M
|
YDP
|
39
|
B.SC
|
However, the contest for the governorship race
seems to be among four main contenders, namely the AD. APC, PDP and SDP.
AD Candidate: OlusolaOke
OlusolaOke was born on April 7, 1956 at the
little fishing settlement of Ilowo located on the Ilaje coastline of Ondo
State. He attended the UNA Primary School in the community in 1961. He enrolled
at the then University of Ife and bagged LLB in 1986 and was called to the
Nigerian Bar on October 22, 1987. Oke ventured into politics and was initially
a member of the Ondo State Board of Internal Revenue in 1991 before he got
elected into the Lower Chamber of the National Assembly as a representative of
Ilaje/Ese-Odo Constituency in 1992 on the platform of the Social Democratic
Party (SDP).
At the return of democracy in 1999, he became a
member of the board of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC)
representing Ondo State. When the tenure of the board expired, Oke became the
Chairman of the Ondo State Oil-Producing Areas Development Commission (OSOPADEC),
and in the 2003 general elections, he was denied the seat of Ondo South
Senatorial District in controversial circumstances after getting his party's
(PDP) ticket and announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) as the winner of the election.
Oke was a member of the National Political Reform
Conference (NPRC) in 2005 and had served as Chairman of the Boards of the
Federal Polytechnic, Bida and the Steel Raw Materials Exploration Agency,
Kaduna as well as a member of the Technical Committee of the Federal Government
on Niger Delta. He is the immediate past National Legal Adviser of the PDP.
He was the governorship candidate of the PDP in
the 2012 governorship election, where he lost to the incumbent governor. He
later joined the APC and contested the governorship primaries where he lost to
RotimiAkeredolu. Following alleged manipulation of the primary in favour of
Akeredolu, and the futility of affords aimed at obtaining redress within the
party, he defected to the AD where he obtained the ticket. Many believed that
he has political structures spread across the state and financial resources to
prosecute the governorship race. Besides, his political experience over the
years is seen as an asset that could boost his chances. He will have to contend
with other formidable forces especially the APC.
APC Candidate: RotimiAkeredolu, SAN
OluwarotimiAkeredolu was born to Reverend J. Ola
Akeredolu of Akeredolu family in Owo and Evangelist Grace B. Akeredolu of
Aderoyiju family of Igbotu, EseOdo, on the 21st July, 1956 in Owo. He started
his primary education at Government School, Owo before he proceeded to Aquinas
College, Akure, Loyola Colege, Ibadan and Comprehensive High School, Ayetoro,
for his secondary school education and Higher School Certificate, respectively.
Akeredolu went to the University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University) to
study Law, graduated in 1977 and was called into the Nigerian Bar in 1978. He
was appointed Attorney General of Ondo State from 1997-1999 and was made a Senior
Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) in1998.
As an activist, he served the Nigerian Bar
Association (NBA) at various levels starting as the Secretary General of the
Ibadan branch in 1985 and has been a member of the National Executive Council
of the Association since then. He served as the Publicity Secretary during the
regime of the late Alao Aka Bashorun, a period considered as the golden era of
the Bar, 1988-1989. He was also a member of Legal Aid Council of Nigeria from
1989 to 1991 and became its Chairman in 2005. He was a member of the Governing
Council, Nigerian Institute of Advanced Legal Studies between 2008 and 2010, a
member of Council of Legal Education, a member of Council, International Bar
Association and Pan African Lawyers Union during the same period. He currently
serves as NBA representative in the National Judicial Council (NJC).
Akeredolu was also the governorship candidate of
the ACN in the 2013 election where he lost to incumbent Governor Mimiko.
Reputed as better positioned than in 2012 now that he enjoys federal support
(party at the centre), concerns have been raised about the manner of the party
primary that produces his candidature. Attendant rifts and conflicts would
appear to have weakened the party with fractionalization and a gale of defections
to other parties. In his electioneering campaigns, like in 2012, Akeredolu has continued
to emphasize the abuse and mismanagement of state resources by the incumbent
government and promised to redress such if elected:
SDP
Candidate: Dr. OluAgunloye
Dr. OluAgunloye was born to the
families of Mr. J. O. Agunloye in Erusu-Akoko and Chief Mrs J. A. Agunloye of
the Osuporu family in Owo. He attended Ondo Boys High School, Ondo from 1961 to
1965, where he passed out with Grade 1. He attended the University of Ibadan to
read Physics from 1966 to 1970 and graduated with Second Class Upper Division.
He enrolled for postgraduate studies in Department of Physics at the University
of Ibadan and Applied Physical Science, University of Reading, UK. He obtained
a PhD degree in Physics in March 1974. He was appointed Lecturer in the
Department of Physics, University of Ibadan in March 1974. Thereafter, he
obtained a Master’s degree in Applied Geophysics from the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, MIT, Cambridge, USA in 1976 while still lecturing at
the University of Ibadan.
DrOluAgunloye emerged the
governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) for the November 26
governorship election in Ondo State through a party primary where he was the
only aspirant. However, his candidacy was endorsed by 291 of the 310 delegates
from the 18 LGAs of the state.
It
is instructive to note that DrAgunloye was a former Minister of Power during
the administration of former President Olusegun
Obasanjo. He was also
the
pioneer Corps Marshal of the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC).
After
his emergence as the SDP candidate, Dr. Agunloye, in his acceptance speech,
thanked the party members and the chairman of the congress committee for
finding him worthy to carry the flag of the party in the forthcoming
gubernatorial election. He also used the occasion to make his governance plans
known to the people. According to him, the SDO was on a rebuilding and rescuing
mission, castigating the Governor Olusegun Mimiko’s administration for
squandering the states resources in the last eight years. According to him:
I humbly accept the flag of the party and the responsibility
associated with it.I assure you that I will not let the party down and will
carry the flag to victory and install it high at the government house of Ondo
State in February 2017... We are here today to
signal a completely new path, new ways and new mindset. What you may call a
shift from the unrealizable transformation programme of the PDP and unreliable
‘Change Agenda’ of the APC to a systems approach to citizens’ empowerment and
food security. Our party seeks new way and better alternative entrenched in
integrity of managing people, infrastructure and economy for people’s
empowerment and emancipation.
Despite
his solid credentials and vast political experience, the political platform he
has chosen to pursue his political ambition, namely the SPD is generally seen
to be weak in the state without any solid base. His record of always changing
party, especially his defection from LP to ACN and back to LP shortly before
and after the 2012 governorship election in the state respectively has been
seen as another weak point.
PDP Candidate: Jimoh Ibrahim
Jimoh
Ibrahim was born on February 24, 1967 to AlhajiYakubu and OmofemiwaJimoh of
Igbotako in Okitipupa, Ondo State. His father was said to be a polygamous with
7 wives and 40 children. He studied law at Obafemi Awolowo University in Ile
Ife, Osun
State, Nigeria, where he bagged his LLB. He later Master of Public Administration (MPA) from the same university, before proceeding to Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, graduating with a combined Master
of Laws (LLM) and Masters
In International Taxation degree.
He is an established entrepreneur with business interests inoil and gas,
distribution, hotels, resorts, airlines, banking, real estate,
insurance, publishing and investments. These businesses are operated under the Global Fleet Group, a group company that is in
Nigeria, and has business interests and subsidiaries in several other West
African countries.
His foray into politics began in 2003 when he unsuccessfully
expressed interest in becoming the governor of Ondo State, on the platform of
All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP). .However, in August 2016, obtained the
nomination form to contest for the November 2016 governorship election in Ondo
state from Senator Ali Modu Sheriff’s factional executive of People Democratic
Party (PDP). The attendant controversies linger on, including litigations and
counter litigations. .However, INEC has recognised and adopted Jimoh Ibrahim as
the PDP candidate in the election. For some people in the state, especially
within the PDP, the decision of INEC to Uphold Jimoh Ibrahim at the expense of
EyitayoJegede remains unpopular and has generated protests and tensions in some
parts of the state. It has also seriously fractionalized the party in the
state. This is considered as a major weak point of the candidate.
Be that as it may, Ibrahim has continued his electioneering
campaigns, promising that if he is elected the governor of the state, he
wouldinitiate reform measures that would help improve governance, including
regular and up-to-date payment of workers’ salaries,
RESEARCH FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
A. Methodology
In preparing
this report, the study adopts a combination of both descriptive qualitative and
quantitative methods. As such, data collection employs the method of
triangulation, involving a combination of several methods in the collection of
data. Primary data were collected through the use of pre-election risk assessment protocol and instrument developed by the
Electoral Institute of INEC to elicit information from the general public and
experts in elections and election-related violence in Ondo state. More
specifically, a total of 740 of the instrument evenly distributed between the
broad categories of ‘General Public’ and ‘Experts’ were administered in the 18
LGAs of the state. This implies that 20 instruments per category of general
public and experts were administered I each LGA, making a totalof 40 perLGA.
This was complemented by Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) in the state. Secondary
data were, however, collected through the use of media reports and reliable internet
sources.
Table
2: Frequency Distribution of Respondents (General Public) per LGAs
|
|||||
Frequency
|
Percent
|
Valid Percent
|
Cumulative Percent
|
||
Valid
|
Akoko North East
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
Akoko North West
|
18
|
5.1
|
5.1
|
10.9
|
|
Akoko South East
|
18
|
5.1
|
5.1
|
16.0
|
|
AKOKO SOUTH WEST
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
21.7
|
|
Akure North
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
27.4
|
|
Akure South
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
33.1
|
|
Ese-Odo
|
18
|
5.1
|
5.1
|
38.3
|
|
IDANRE
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
44.0
|
|
Ifedore
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
49.7
|
|
ILAJE
|
19
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
55.1
|
|
Ile- oluji/Okeigbo
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
60.9
|
|
Irele
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
66.6
|
|
ODIGBO
|
19
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
72.0
|
|
OKITIPUPA
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
77.7
|
|
Ondo East
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
83.4
|
|
ONDO WEST
|
18
|
5.1
|
5.1
|
88.6
|
|
Ose
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
94.3
|
|
OWO
|
20
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
100.0
|
|
Total
|
350
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
||
Source: Field Work, CLEEN Foundation, November, 2016.
The administration of the instrument was preceded by a number of
activities aimed at simplifying the task and boosting the reliability and
credibility of the exercise. One of the most notable activities was the
recruitment and training of field assistants who administered the instruments.
This was further enhanced with the presence of field supervisors to monitor and
ensure compliance with the rules of the game, including strict adherence to all
relevant ethical considerations.
The representativeness of respondents across various categories of
analysis was given adequate attention. In terms of geography, for example, the
three senatorial districts were not only adequately represented since all LGAs
were captured in the sample population, but almost in anequitable manner (see
Table 4). Specifically, Ondo North has 116 (33.1%), Ondo Central 118 (33.7%)
and Ondo South also 116 (33.1%).
The gender dimension of respondents was also significant, given the
impressive representation of women across most of the LGAs (see Table 3).
Table
3: Gender Distribution of Respondents (General Public)
|
|||||
Frequency
|
Percent
|
Valid Percent
|
Cumulative %
|
||
Valid
|
Male
|
239
|
68.3
|
68.3
|
68.3
|
Female
|
111
|
31.7
|
31.7
|
100.0
|
|
Total
|
350
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
||
Table 4: Senatorial
Distribution of Respondents (General Public)
|
|||||
Frequency
|
Percent
|
Valid Percent
|
Cumulative Percent
|
||
Valid
|
Ondo North
|
116
|
33.1
|
33.1
|
33.1
|
Ondo Central
|
118
|
33.7
|
33.7
|
66.9
|
|
Ondo South
|
116
|
33.1
|
33.1
|
100.0
|
|
Total
|
350
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
||
As could be seen from Table 3 above, of the 350 valid respondents, female
representation stood at 111 (31.7%), while male was 239 (68.3%). Although the
male respondents were more than their female counterparts, it is heartening to
see that female representation crosses the 30% international benchmark at the
aggregate level.
It is, important to note, however, that this does not tell the whole
story of gender representation of respondents. There were a few instances
(LGAs) where female respondents were actually more than male respondents. This
was the case in Ilaje (63.2%), Ondo West (61.0%), EseOdo (55.6%), Ifedore
(50.0%), the trio of Akure South, Akure North and Akoko South West where female
respondents stood at (45.0%). There were also LGAs without a single female
respondent, namely Owo, Ondo East, Okitipupa and Akoko North East which were
all 100% male. Two other LGAs recorded less impressive representation of women,
namely Ose (20.0%) and Akoko North East (15.0%). Despite these discrepancies,
we are unable to draw any definite conclusion about gender and electoral
violence. For one thing, it is outside the purview of thus report; for another,
the discrepancy may be due to some other factors rather than a true reflection
of the gender dimension of electoral violence, especially in terms of its agency
and consequences.
The analysis of data was doneusing the qualitative and quantitative
techniques, the former employing content analysis and the latter frequency
distribution, simple percentages, tables, and charts.
In predicting and measuring the possibility and by extension the degree
of violence at both the aggregate (state-wide) and specific (LGAs) levels, we
adopt a classificatory scheme involving a range of scores indicating the
probable degrees of violence with a lower and upper limits.In particular, RED ink is used to illustrate the highest level of
election risk factors with a range of scores between 30-100%. This is followed
by AMBERwith a lesser degree of violence and
a range of scores from 10-29%; and GREENindicating
a highly peaceful atmosphere with very limited likelihood of violence at 0-9%.
Table 5:
Measuring Indicators of Possible Degree of Violence
Colour
|
Range of Scores (%)
|
Remarks
|
Red
|
30-100
|
Very violent
|
Amber
|
10-29
|
Violent
|
Green
|
0-9
|
Peaceful
|
B.
Key Findings I: Aggregate Level Data
At the aggregate level (across the whole
state), data generated from the study suggest that the 26 November, 2016
governorship election could generally be peaceful, devoid of any serious
threats of violence. This much is evident from the various sources of
information explored for the study.
Table 6: Responses
to Q1 - Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful?
|
|||||
Frequency
|
Percent
|
Valid Percent
|
Cumulative Percent
|
||
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
126
|
36.0
|
36.2
|
36.2
|
Agree
|
144
|
41.1
|
41.4
|
77.6
|
|
Undecided
|
37
|
10.6
|
10.6
|
88.2
|
|
Disagree
|
22
|
6.3
|
6.3
|
94.5
|
|
Strongly Disagree
|
19
|
5.4
|
5.5
|
100.0
|
|
Total
|
348
|
99.4
|
100.0
|
||
Missing
|
System
|
2
|
.6
|
||
Total
|
350
|
100.0
|
|||
To begin with, majority of respondents
at both the general public and expert categories are of the view that the
elections would generally be peaceful. When asked to express their views as to
whether the election in their respective locality will be peaceful or not, the
responses were generally positive, as presented in Table 6 below. In specific
terms, 126 (36%) and 144 (41.1%) of the respondents selected ‘strongly agree’
and ‘agree’ respectively. This gives a total of 270 (77.1%) of the respondents
across the 18 LGAs of the state with positive response. Only 19 (5.4%) and 22
(6.3%) of the respondents selected ‘strongly disagree’ and ‘disagree’
respectively, amounting to a total of 22%. 37 (10.6%) were, however, undecided. Situated
within our measuring indices, these data suggest that the governorship election
in Ondo state will be relatively peaceful, with the likelihood of violence
standing at 22%. This falls within the category of Amber. These responses are
depicted in Figue I below.
The possibility of violence was further
underscored by the significant drop in the degree of positive response to
another general question, which happens to be the last on the instrument.
Specifically, respondents were asked how, after going through a number of other
questions on specific election risk factors in their locality, they though the
election would go on the whole. The responses are presented in Table 7 below.
Table
7: Responses to Q70 - On the whole, how do you think that this election will
go?
|
|||||
Frequency
|
Percent
|
Valid Percent
|
Cumulative Percent
|
||
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
85
|
24.3
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
Peaceful
|
137
|
39.1
|
40.3
|
65.3
|
|
Undecided
|
76
|
21.7
|
22.4
|
87.6
|
|
Violent
|
26
|
7.4
|
7.6
|
95.3
|
|
Very Violent
|
16
|
4.6
|
4.7
|
100.0
|
|
Total
|
340
|
97.1
|
100.0
|
||
Missing
|
System
|
10
|
2.9
|
||
Total
|
350
|
100.0
|
|||
In their responses, 85 (24.3%) and 137
(39.1%) were of the view that the election would be ‘very peaceful’ and ‘peaceful’
respectively. This gives a total of 222 (63%) positive responses, compared to of
270 (77%) to the first question, constituting a downward slide of 14%. On the
other hand, 26 (7.4%) and 16 (4.6%) were of the view that the election would be
‘violent’ and ‘very violent’ respectively, totaling 42 (12, 0%). These
responses are represented:in Figure II below:
Although this represents a sizeable drop
from the degree of negative responses to the first question at 22%, the fact
that a whopping 76(21.7%) were undecided in their responses to this question
makes accurate generalization difficult.
Yet, the data suggest the possibility of a peaceful election with
pockets of violence in the category of Amber..
C.
Key Findings II: Disaggregated Data by LGAs on the Peacefulness of the Election
Whereas the aggregate data presented in
the immediate preceding section has significant analytical and predictive
capability, there are, however, observable discrepancies across LGAs In this section;
we present data from the field survey on a local government by local government
basis to underscore such variations. This way, we are able to predict more
accurately the likelihood and degree of violence across the various LGAs of the
state. The LGAs are presented in alphabetical order as shown in Tables 8 and 9
under the appendix.
Akoko
North East
This LGA is generally known to be
peaceful, without any recognizable history of electoral violence. The
respondents expect the tradition of peaceful election to continue during the
2016 governorship election. When asked if the election in the area would be
peaceful or not, all the respondents answered in the affirmative. While 8 (40%)
strongly agreed, the other 12 (60%) agreed without any dissenting voice.
Category: Green
Akoko
North West
Like in Akoko North West, Akoko North
West is also generally known to be peaceful. It also has no history of
electoral violence. As such, the people expect a peaceful election in the
region. There are, however, some likely exceptions, with some touts known as
the Good Boys’ around Arigidi and Ajowa both along Okeagbe road allegedly
prepared to perpetuate violence in exchange for money. Despite this
reservation, the general outlook of the survey was very positive as 8 (44.3%)
and 6 (33.3%) of respondents ‘strongly agreed’ and ‘agreed’ that the election
in the area would be peaceful respectively. This amounts to 77.6%, while the
remaining 4 (26.2%) were undecided.
Category: Amber
Akoko South East
Like other parts of Akoko land in
general, respondents expect the election to be peaceful. It has no history of
violence and no specific hotspots of violence were identified in the LGA. In
specific terms, 11 (61.1%) of the respondents strongly agreed that the election
would be peaceful, while another 6 (33.3%) also agreed that it would be peaceful.
This gives a total of 18 (94.4%) positive response. Only one of the respondents
was undecided.
Category: Green
Akoko
South West
The respondents largely expressed their
expectation of a peaceful election in the LGA. In their responses, 13 (65%) and
4 (20%) strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election would be
peaceful respectively, giving a total of 85%. However, 1 (5%) respondent each
was undecided, strongly disagreed and disagreed. This suggests the likelihood
of violence on a small scale in the area. The fact that some protest took place
in the LGA, specifically at Akungba against the removal of EyitayoJegedeas PDP’s
candidate is a pointer to such tendencies.
Category: Amber
Akure
North
Since 1999 Akure North has been known
for one form of violence or the other during elections.The 2016 governorship
election may not be an exception and the signs are already manifesting. For
example, the controversy over the authentic PDP candidate (Jimoh Ibrahim vs
EyitayoJegede) hadalready generated pockets of protests with residents who
indulged in the burning of tires on the main roads leading to the Local
Government Areas right from Agbogbo filling Station.Jegedeis said to be very
close to some communities in the LGA, particularlyIsinigbo. The LGA also hosts
some communities notorious for electoral violence. For instance, Iju community reputed
as the hub of political thugs and the hometown of Chief OmotayoAlasoadura, an
APC stalwart and Senator representing the Ondo Central Senatorial District is
within the LGA. Worse still, Senator Alasoadura was until recently a strong PDP
member for sixteen years.Itaogboluis also said to be sensitive not only because
it houses the Local Government Secretariat Training Centre, but more
importantly for being a PDP-dominated Area and also very close to Isinigbo the
ancestral home of EyitayoJegede, which has been wounded with the substitution
of the name of their son as PDP candidate.
With these background information, it is
hardly surprising that the level of expectation of peaceful election is not
very high compared to the Akoko region. Only 4 (20%) strongly agreed that the
election would be peaceful, while another 8 (40%) also agreed, making a total
of 60%. While only 1 (5%) disagreed, a significant 7 (35%) were undecided. This
suggest the possibility of violence on a bigger scale.
Category: Red
Akure
South
The LGA is said to be generally known to
be peaceful during elections. However, some respondents suggested that the saga
over the PDP candidacy particularly as it affects EyitayoJegede may compel the
people to rethink their participation in the election. For these people, the
outcome of the court case could have an influence on the future direction of
their participation. However, some others felt if the PDP make good its threat
not to participate, then the election would be peaceful, accusing the party of
the being the one fomenting violence in previous elections. Overall,
respondents considered the Jimoh-Jegede saga as the greatest source of threats
to the peaceful conduct of the election because Jegede hails from the LGA.
Possible hotspots of violence include Okelisa,
Odokoyi-Isolo,Odopetu-Irowo
and Oda-Ilekun,
These observations are corroborated by
the responses to the peacefulness or otherwise of the election in the region.
Specifically, only 5 (25%) and 7 (35%) strongly agreed and agreed that the
election would be peaceful in the area respectively, making a total of 60%.
Conversely, 2 (10%) each strongly disagreed and disagreed, while only 4 (20%)
were undecided.
Category: Red
Ese
Odo
The area has a history of electoral
violence especially in the riverine axis.Communities such as Agadagba, Arogbo
and Bolowohave been identified as potential flashpoints because of their
history with election. Apkaramo, located in the river side, has also listed
among potential hotspots because of its problematic location and terrain.
Despite this history, respondents expect a largely peaceful election, with 8
(44.4%) and 8 (44.4%) strongly agreeing and agreeing respectively, making a
total of 88.8%. Only one (1) was undecided and another one (1) disagreed.
Category: Amber
Idanre
Respondents expect a
peaceful election, as has become customary in the area. However, they also express
concerns over some factors they felt could generate violence during the
election. These include the contentious primaries conducted by the PDP and APC,
a history of vote-buying and the distant location of voting units. Likely
hotspots identified by respondents includeAkuro
St. Joseph’s Secondary school, OdodeIdanre because the Chief of Staff to the
Ondo State Governor resides in the area; and T-Junction along Owa of Idanre’s
Palace because Dr. Kola Ademujimi’s personal hospital and house that are located
there. Both of them may want to deliver their areas. In the field survey, 10
(50%) of the respondent strongly agreed that the election would be peaceful in
the area, while 7 (35%) also agreed, making a total of 85%. Two (10%) however
disagreed while one (1) was undecided.
Category:
Amber
Ifedore
Respondents
expressed concerns over certain developments that could leadto violence during
the election in the area. Above all else, Igbaraoke, the headquarters of
Ifedore LGA, is the country home of Engr. Clement Faboyede, the Ondo State PDP
Chairman, who may want to deliver the votes in his domain at all costs. The
controversy surrounding Jimoh Ibrahim and EyitayoJedgede PDP’s candidacy was
also highlighted across various parts of the LGA. Potential hotspots identified
by respondents include Akure Garage close to St Paul’s Anglican Church because
it’s the hub of political thugs; IlaraMokin around St Peter Clever Catholic
Church because it’s APC dominated area; and other PDP dominated areas such asIjaraand
Ipoguncommunities. The survey report lends credence to this tendencies as 8
(40%) and 4(20%) of the respondents strongly agreed and agreed that the
election in the area would be peaceful respectively. 3 (15%) were undecided,
another 3 (15%) strongly disagreed and 2 (10%) disagreed.
Category:
Amber
Ilaje
Generally
the people expect the election to be peaceful. This evident from the survey
report which shows that 8 (42.1%) of respondents strongly agreed that the
elections would be peaceful in the area; and another 10 (52.6%) also agreed,
making a total of 94.7%. Only 1(5.3%) disagreed.
This
finding is surprising given the history of violence in the areas not only over
elections, but also as part of the oil producing communities involved in the
Niger Delta struggles. Moreover, it is also the country home of OlusolaOke, the
AD candidate, as well as the maternal home of RotimiAkeredolu, the APC
candidate. Worse still, the administration of election in the area may be
confronted by some logistic challenges, most notably transportation in the
riverine areas.
Category: Green
Ile-Oluji/Oke
Igbo
Respondents
were of the view that the election in the areas would be peaceful. 14 (70%)
agreed with this proposition. However, 2 (10%) respondents each strongly disagreed
and agreed, while 1 (5%) was undecided. Nevertheless, there some issues of
concern were also highlighted. For example, a number of high profile PDP
stalwart have defected to the APC, Dr. Pius Osunkunmi, the Director General of
Technical Aid Corps, who was once a PDP member; and Hon AlegboyeAdegbemisoye
who was once a PDP stalwart and Executive Chairman of Ile-Oluji/OkeigboLGA but
now in APC. Their domains have been identified as possible flash points.
Category:
Amber
Irele
Respondents expect
the elections in this area to be peaceful because the area has no history of
electoral violence.This expectation is reinforced by the responses to the main
question where 5 (25%) and 13 (65%) strongly agreed and agreed that the
election would be peaceful respectively, making a total of 90%. Only 1 (5%)
respondent was undecided without any negative opinion. However, respondents
alluded to the presence of creeks and militants in the river-side areas of the
LGA.
Category: Green
Odigbo
The area reportedly
has no serious record of electoral violence since 1999. As such, people expect
a continuation of the peaceful tradition in the area. Almost all responses were
positive, where 7 (26.8%) and 12 (63.2%) of the respondents strongly agreed and
agreed respectively that the election would be peaceful, given a total of 90%.
No particular part of the area was identified as a hotspot.
Category: Green
Okitipupa
The expectation of a
peaceful election was widely expressed by the people. 9 (45%) and 8 (40%) of
the respondents strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election in
the areas would be peaceful, giving a total of 85%. However, 3 (15%) were
undecided. However, the terrain of the area was identified as a source of
concern, especially with respect to election logistics and transportation in
the river-sides of the LGA. Despite this, no part of the LGA was identified as
a hotspot.
Category: Green
Ondo East
Though
regarded as a peaceful LGA, respondents here were not very positive about the
prospect of a peaceful election. This may not be unconnected with the fact that
it falls under one of the strongholds of incumbent Governor Olusegun Mimiko,
who has been deeply embroiled in the controversy associated with EyitayoJegede.
Besides, the LGA is also said to harbour a few hotspots, especially within the
local government headquarter (Bolorunduro) and Owena. Only 3 (15%) and 6 (30%)
of the respondents strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election in
the region would be peaceful, giving a dismal total of 45%. Conversely, 4
(20%), 4 (20%) and 3 (15%) were undecided, strongly disagreed and disagreed respectively.
Category: Red
Ondo
West
The LGA is considered as a potential
hotspot for obvious reasons. First, it is the country home of the incumbent
Governor Olusegun Mimiko, who is currently engrossed in the struggle to get
EyitayoJegede restored as the flag bearer of the PDP in the governorship
election. Second, the area has a history of electoral violence. Our findings
revealed that during the 2015 election, there were gun shots and snatching of
ballot boxes atAnsarundeen High School; opposition party members were said to
have been denied right to vote at Surelere area; and Shokotiand Esso arereputed
as the hub of political thugs who always threaten the people in the area. Yet,
the Jimoh-Jegede crisis was identified as a source of violence as people in the
area have been protesting the substitution of Jegede. Respondents corroborate
these tendencies when only 2 (11.1%) and 6 (30%) strongly agreed and agreed
respectively that the election in the area would be peaceful, making a dismal
total of 41.1%. 3 (16.7%), 2 (11.1%) and 4 (22.2%) were undecided, strongly
disagreed and disagreed respectively.
Category: Red
Ose
This area is identified as a potential
flashpoint for many reasons. One, it is located in the borders of Ondo and Edo
states, raising the fear of possible importation of electoral mercenaries from
neighbouring Edo state. Two, the substitution of EyitayoJegede as PDP candidate
has been a major issue in the area. Three, some localities in the areas are
reputed for violence such asIgbeyin-Adun and Igbekun in Ijagba community. It is
said to be thecentre for political thugs in the area. Little wonder that
responses to whether the election in the area would be peaceful or not were not
impressive. Specifically, 4 (20%) and 7 (35%) of respondents strongly agreed
and agreed respectively that the election would be peaceful, making a total of
55%. However, 2 (10%), 4 (20%) and 3 (15%) were undecided, strongly disagreed
and agreed respectively.
Category: Red
Owo
Respondents were of the view that Owo is
generally peaceful and expect the governorship election to be peaceful.
However, being the country home of RotimiAkeredolu, the APC candidate, it has
been a beehive of heightened political activities, which require adequate
attention. Be that as it may, respondents were generally of the view that the
election would be peaceful with 13 (65%) and 5 (25%) strongly agreeing and
agreeing respectively. This makes a total of 90%. Only 2 (10%) were undecided.
Category: Green
Map and Table showing different colours here
D.
Q1 vs Q70:On the Whole, How Do You think that the Election Will Go?
In an attempt to establish the validity
and reliability of the responses to Q1 on whether the election would be
peaceful or not, we evaluate responses to Q70, which was deliberately included
to measure the level of consistency in respondents’ perceptions.
Interestingly, we found synergy for the
most part in the responses to the two questions.. To be specific, responses to
the two questions were either the same or almost the same in 13 of the 18 LGAs,
leading to the same classification/categorization in those LGAs as either:
Green, Amber or Red. These LGAs are Akoko North East, Akoko South East, Akoko
South West, Akure North, Akure South, Idanre, Ilaje, Ile Oluji, Irele, Odigbo,
Ondo East, Ondo West, Ose.
However, there were notable exceptions
in the remaining 5 LGAs, some of which can be explained. These are Akoko North
West, EseOdo, Ifedore, Okitipupa and Owo. In Akoko North West, for example, 77.6%
of respondents responded positively to the prospect of peaceful election in the
area (Q1). Surprisingly, only 25% agreed that overall the election would be
peaceful. The variation may not be unconnected to the fact that half (50%) of
the respondents were undecided in their responses to the question, thus the
movement from Amber (Q1) to Red (Q70). In EseOdo, the variation was positive,
shifting from 88.8% to 94.4% (Amber to Green).In Ifedore, there was a downward
slide of 15% from 60% to 45% (Amber to Red). Okitipupaslide from Green (85%)
toAmber(68.4%). Ondo West maintained its classification as Red (41%) but with
an extremely outrageous variation (5.9%). The reason for this was that the
majority of respondents, specifically 13 (72.2%) were undecided in their
responses. So some reasonable degree of consistency could be said to exist in
the responses to the two questions. This finding underscores the reliability of
this report.
E.
Comparison with Expert Data
At the aggregate level, there exists
considerable synergy between responses of the general public and the experts’.
For the experts, 113 (33.6%) and 140 (41.7%) strongly agreed and agreed
respectively that the election would be peaceful across the state. This amounts
to 253 (76.2%) of positive response. 20 (6.0%) were undecided, while 16 (4.8%)
strongly disagreed. This is in agreement with the findings from the general
public where 126 (36%) and 144 (41.1%) strongly agreed and agreed respectively
that the election would be peaceful, with a total of 270 (77.1%).
Though not exactly the same when
compared to the other general question (Q1), yet some degree of synergy was
also observed in Q70 where 73 (22%) and 133 (39.6%) were of the view that the
election in the state would be very peaceful and peaceful respectively, making
a total of 206 (61%). This is also is consonance with date from the general
public where 85 (24.3%) and 137 (39.1%) were of the view that the election
would be very peaceful and peaceful respectively, with a combined positive
response of 222 (63%).
SYNTHESIS OF KEY RISK
FACTORS
From
our findings, a number of election risk factors could trigger electoral
violence unless urgent steps are taken to mitigate them. These include:
Ø
A history of
electoral violence and activities of thugs:Ondo state has a history of
electoral violence, most notably the 1983 post-election violence -the
AdekunleAjasin/Omoboriowo saga- which a public commentator described as the
‘house of war’.The activities of various violent political gangs across the state,
most notably the dreaded Ade Basket Boys
with stronghold in Akure and subsidiaries across the state and Orita Fogo Boys predominantly in the
Akungba axis, also constitute serious security threats;
Ø The activities of political parties: This is very
central as both experts and the general public were unanimous in this respect.
Specifically, 236 (71.7% and 272 (81.3%) of experts and general public
respectively either strongly agreed or agreed that the activities of political
parties could undermine the electoral process and cause violence. Some of the
underlined factors by experts include contentious party primaries, godfatherism
and undue influence of money, among others. The crisis rocking the PDP and APC
over the conduct of their primaries lends credence to this position.
Ø The role and activities of INEC: A total of 182
(55.1%) expert respondents and 244 (68.7%) general public respondents either
strongly agreed or agreed that INEC is pivotal to the peacefulness of the
election. Issues such as early deployment of INEC staff and materials,
impartiality, voter education, issuance of PVCs, making card readers function
and other logistics issues were identified as vital issues whose handling could
make or mar the election.
Ø The role and activities of security agencies: The role of
security agencies was also identified as pivotal to peaceful election. 188
(57.8%) of experts and 242 (69.3%) either strongly agreed or agreed that unless
security agents display exemplary professionalism, non-partisanship, the
election could lead to violence. Experts also alluded to the need to pay good
attention to the welfare need of security agents if they must measure up to
expectations.
Ø Judicial Institutions: The judiciary
was also identified as an important institution whose conduct could make or mar
the election. 235 (68.7%) of the general public and 159 (48.5%) of experts
either strongly agreed or agreed about the salience of the judiciary. Key
variables identified by experts include timely and impartial dispatch of
pre-election cases brought before the court, non-partisanship and the
phenomenon of corruption, among others. The judicial saga over the PDP
candidacy would appear to lend credence to this position. When the level of
trust in the judiciary is poor, people may be tempted to resort to self-help
strategies.
Ø The Media: Though the media were identified by 164
(50.2%) of experts and 239 (68.6%) of the general public as constituting
potential source of threats that could instigate violence, especially when they
fail to operate within their ethical and legal codes,it would appear that so
far so good some measure of moderation has been observed with limited or no
recourse to hate and inciting speech. It will be useful if this trend can be maintained
throughout the electoral cycle.
Ø Traditional institutions: Traditional
rulers are ordinarily the custodians of traditional customs, traditions and
values. However, most of them appear to have been contaminated by politics.
Little wonder that 170 (52.1%) of experts and 219 (64%) of the general public
considered them as potential source of violence during the election.
Ø Others: many
other factors identified by experts of constituting risk factors in the
election include the following:
a)
Geographical
terrain:
b)
Non-adherence
to process and procedures
c)
Funding
of election
d)
Problem
with payment of election workers
e)
Problem
associated with recruitment of adhoc INEC staff
f)
Power
of incumbency
g)
Proliferation
of small arms and light weapon
h)
Corruption
among INEC officials
i)
Reliability
of election equipment
j)
Inadequate
training and conduct of security agents
k)
Strong
opposition
l)
Political
interference with the work of INEC
m)
Involvement
of informal policing groups
Though therewere
variations in the degree of responses to these questions from one LGA to the
other, the approval rating to these questions were not lower than 50% across
the LGAs. This further lends credence to the findings presented in this report.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
All other things being
equal, the Ondo State governorship election will hold 26 November, 2016. At the
aggregate level, the data presented in this report appear to suggest that the
election will generally be peaceful. This much was revealed from the date
generated from both experts and the general public. However, when disaggregated
on LGA by LGA, notable convergences and divergences were obvious. With the
data, we have classified the LGAs base on the perceived degree of peacefulness
of violent potential of the election in a given area. It is, however, important
to note that noting is cast in stone. The mere fact that an area is categorized
as GREEN does not imply that the election in the areas will automatically be
violence-free and vice versa. Much depends on proactive measures taken to
mitigate identified risk factors across the various LGAs of the state.
Against the background
of the following, the following recommendations are considered imperative:.
Ø
There
is need for all institutions connected with the administration of the election
to embark on confidence building with all political stakeholders in the
election, most notably the ruling and opposition parties, civil society
organizations and the people at large.
Ø
In
particular, INEC and security agencies should meet periodically with these
actors to assure them of their neutrality, impartiality, willingness and
ability to act in a way that will ensure free, fair and credible election;
Ø
There
is need for timely distribution of election materials and personnel to ensure
timely commencement of voting across the state. This is, however, much more
crucial for the riverine areas where the challenges of transportation seem to
be more entrenched;
Ø
Notable
potential flash points during the election should be given more security
protection, together with more election observers, in such a way that no ballot
station will be left uncovered;
Ø
Activities
of notable political thugs/gangs such as the Ade Basket Boys and the Orita Fogo
Boys should be curtailed;
Ø
There
is need for demilitarization of the mind through social mobilization of the
people on the need to shun violence during and after the election. This is a
task for political parties, INEC, civil society organizations, mass media and
the generality of the people;
Ø
All
adhoc election administrators should be adequately trained and monitored to
ensure compliance with established rules and procedures;
Ø
All
political parties should be encouraged to adhere to the peace agreement they
have signed, stating their commitment to eschew violence and work peacefully during
and after the election;
Ø
The
judiciary should be up and doing in dispatching all election cases brought
before it timely and impartially;
Appendixes
1
Responses
to Q1. Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful?
|
||||||
Local Government Area
|
Frequency
|
Percent
|
Valid Percent
|
Cumulative Percent
|
||
Akoko North East
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
8
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
Agree
|
12
|
60.0
|
60.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Akoko North West
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
8
|
44.4
|
44.4
|
44.4
|
Agree
|
6
|
33.3
|
33.3
|
77.8
|
||
Undecided
|
4
|
22.2
|
22.2
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
18
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Akoko South East
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
11
|
61.1
|
61.1
|
61.1
|
Agree
|
6
|
33.3
|
33.3
|
94.4
|
||
Undecided
|
1
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
18
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
AKOKO SOUTH WEST
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
13
|
65.0
|
65.0
|
65.0
|
Agree
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
85.0
|
||
Undecided
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
90.0
|
||
Disagree
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
95.0
|
||
Strongly Disagree
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Akure North
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
Agree
|
8
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
60.0
|
||
Undecided
|
7
|
35.0
|
35.0
|
95.0
|
||
Disagree
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Akure South
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
5
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
Agree
|
7
|
35.0
|
35.0
|
60.0
|
||
Undecided
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
80.0
|
||
Disagree
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
90.0
|
||
Strongly Disagree
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Ese-Odo
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
8
|
44.4
|
44.4
|
44.4
|
Agree
|
8
|
44.4
|
44.4
|
88.9
|
||
Undecided
|
1
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
94.4
|
||
Disagree
|
1
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
18
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
IDANRE
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
10
|
50.0
|
50.0
|
50.0
|
Agree
|
7
|
35.0
|
35.0
|
85.0
|
||
Disagree
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
95.0
|
||
Strongly Disagree
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Ifedore
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
8
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
Agree
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
60.0
|
||
Undecided
|
3
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
75.0
|
||
Disagree
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
85.0
|
||
Strongly Disagree
|
3
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
ILAJE
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
8
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
Agree
|
10
|
52.6
|
52.6
|
94.7
|
||
Disagree
|
1
|
5.3
|
5.3
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
19
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Ile- oluji/Okeigbo
|
Valid
|
Agree
|
14
|
70.0
|
73.7
|
73.7
|
Undecided
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.3
|
78.9
|
||
Disagree
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.5
|
89.5
|
||
Strongly Disagree
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.5
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
19
|
95.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Missing
|
System
|
1
|
5.0
|
|||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
||||
Irele
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
5
|
25.0
|
26.3
|
26.3
|
Agree
|
13
|
65.0
|
68.4
|
94.7
|
||
Undecided
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.3
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
19
|
95.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Missing
|
System
|
1
|
5.0
|
|||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
||||
ODIGBO
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
7
|
36.8
|
36.8
|
36.8
|
Agree
|
12
|
63.2
|
63.2
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
19
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
OKITIPUPA
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
9
|
45.0
|
45.0
|
45.0
|
Agree
|
8
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
85.0
|
||
Undecided
|
3
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Ondo East
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
3
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
Agree
|
6
|
30.0
|
30.0
|
45.0
|
||
Undecided
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
65.0
|
||
Disagree
|
3
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
80.0
|
||
Strongly Disagree
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
ONDO WEST
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
2
|
11.1
|
11.1
|
11.1
|
Agree
|
7
|
38.9
|
38.9
|
50.0
|
||
Undecided
|
3
|
16.7
|
16.7
|
66.7
|
||
Disagree
|
4
|
22.2
|
22.2
|
88.9
|
||
Strongly Disagree
|
2
|
11.1
|
11.1
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
18
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Ose
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
Agree
|
7
|
35.0
|
35.0
|
55.0
|
||
Undecided
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
65.0
|
||
Disagree
|
3
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
80.0
|
||
Strongly Disagree
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
OWO
|
Valid
|
Strongly Agree
|
13
|
65.0
|
65.0
|
65.0
|
Agree
|
5
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
90.0
|
||
Undecided
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Appendix
2:
Q70.
On the whole, how do you think that this election will go?
|
||||||
Local Government Area
|
Frequency
|
Percent
|
Valid Percent
|
Cumulative Percent
|
||
Akoko North East
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
9
|
45.0
|
47.4
|
47.4
|
Peaceful
|
8
|
40.0
|
42.1
|
89.5
|
||
Undecided
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.5
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
19
|
95.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Missing
|
System
|
1
|
5.0
|
|||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
||||
Akoko North West
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
1
|
5.6
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
Peaceful
|
3
|
16.7
|
18.8
|
25.0
|
||
Undecided
|
8
|
44.4
|
50.0
|
75.0
|
||
Violent
|
3
|
16.7
|
18.8
|
93.8
|
||
Very Violent
|
1
|
5.6
|
6.2
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
16
|
88.9
|
100.0
|
|||
Missing
|
System
|
2
|
11.1
|
|||
Total
|
18
|
100.0
|
||||
Akoko South East
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
13
|
72.2
|
72.2
|
72.2
|
Peaceful
|
4
|
22.2
|
22.2
|
94.4
|
||
Undecided
|
1
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
18
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
AKOKO SOUTH WEST
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
Peaceful
|
12
|
60.0
|
60.0
|
80.0
|
||
Undecided
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Akure North
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
Peaceful
|
9
|
45.0
|
45.0
|
55.0
|
||
Undecided
|
8
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
95.0
|
||
Violent
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Akure South
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
5
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
Peaceful
|
7
|
35.0
|
35.0
|
60.0
|
||
Undecided
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
80.0
|
||
Violent
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
90.0
|
||
Very Violent
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Ese-Odo
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
6
|
33.3
|
33.3
|
33.3
|
Peaceful
|
11
|
61.1
|
61.1
|
94.4
|
||
Undecided
|
1
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
18
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
IDANRE
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
8
|
40.0
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
Peaceful
|
6
|
30.0
|
31.6
|
73.7
|
||
Undecided
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.3
|
78.9
|
||
Violent
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.5
|
89.5
|
||
Very Violent
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.5
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
19
|
95.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Missing
|
System
|
1
|
5.0
|
|||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
||||
Ifedore
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
Peaceful
|
5
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
45.0
|
||
Undecided
|
5
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
70.0
|
||
Violent
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
80.0
|
||
Very Violent
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
ILAJE
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
5
|
26.3
|
26.3
|
26.3
|
Peaceful
|
12
|
63.2
|
63.2
|
89.5
|
||
Undecided
|
1
|
5.3
|
5.3
|
94.7
|
||
Violent
|
1
|
5.3
|
5.3
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
19
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Ile- oluji/Okeigbo
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
Peaceful
|
12
|
60.0
|
60.0
|
65.0
|
||
Undecided
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
70.0
|
||
Violent
|
2
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
80.0
|
||
Very Violent
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Irele
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
5
|
25.0
|
29.4
|
29.4
|
Peaceful
|
10
|
50.0
|
58.8
|
88.2
|
||
Undecided
|
2
|
10.0
|
11.8
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
17
|
85.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Missing
|
System
|
3
|
15.0
|
|||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
||||
ODIGBO
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
3
|
15.8
|
16.7
|
16.7
|
Peaceful
|
10
|
52.6
|
55.6
|
72.2
|
||
Undecided
|
3
|
15.8
|
16.7
|
88.9
|
||
Violent
|
1
|
5.3
|
5.6
|
94.4
|
||
Very Violent
|
1
|
5.3
|
5.6
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
18
|
94.7
|
100.0
|
|||
Missing
|
System
|
1
|
5.3
|
|||
Total
|
19
|
100.0
|
||||
OKITIPUPA
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
6
|
30.0
|
31.6
|
31.6
|
Peaceful
|
7
|
35.0
|
36.8
|
68.4
|
||
Undecided
|
5
|
25.0
|
26.3
|
94.7
|
||
Violent
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.3
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
19
|
95.0
|
100.0
|
|||
Missing
|
System
|
1
|
5.0
|
|||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
||||
Ondo East
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
Peaceful
|
5
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
45.0
|
||
Undecided
|
6
|
30.0
|
30.0
|
75.0
|
||
Violent
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
95.0
|
||
Very Violent
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
ONDO WEST
|
Valid
|
Peaceful
|
1
|
5.6
|
5.9
|
5.9
|
Undecided
|
13
|
72.2
|
76.5
|
82.4
|
||
Violent
|
3
|
16.7
|
17.6
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
17
|
94.4
|
100.0
|
|||
Missing
|
System
|
1
|
5.6
|
|||
Total
|
18
|
100.0
|
||||
Ose
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
Peaceful
|
7
|
35.0
|
35.0
|
40.0
|
||
Undecided
|
7
|
35.0
|
35.0
|
75.0
|
||
Violent
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
95.0
|
||
Very Violent
|
1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
OWO
|
Valid
|
VeryPeaceful
|
8
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
Peaceful
|
8
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
80.0
|
||
Undecided
|
4
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
100.0
|
||
Total
|
20
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|||
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