The build-up to the 2015 General Election
in Nigeria has been marred by some violence. The CLEEN Foundation Security
Threat Assessment published in March 2015 found 15 states to be on the red
threat level. On the other hand, in its Pre-Election Report and Advisory on
Violence in Nigeria’s 2015 General Elections NHRC documented that at least 58
persons have been killed in elections and politically related violence in
Nigeria. More so, nearly 2 million people have been displaced in the North
Eastern part of Nigeria as a result of the Boko Haram insurgency.
The March 28th Presidential
Election has been hailed in many quarters as being largely peaceful and free of
post-election violence. Some attribute this relative peace to the laudable
decision of President Jonathan to concede the election even before the official
final results were announced, while others attribute the outcome to the public
commitment made by the key contenders to accept the outcome of the elections
and their charge to their supporters to eschew violence.
Ahead of the Gubernatorial Elections
however, key concerns remain for public safety and security in Nigeria. The
gubernatorial elections present security challenges considering a number of
factors namely: a) the likelihood of political parties to cling to, or win new
states after consideration of the outcome of the presidential polls; b) the presence
of local dynamics which might not have been in play in the presidential
elections –including zoning of candidacy, power of incumbency as well as
pressures to install a preferred candidate. This policy brief summarizes the
risk of electoral violence ahead of the gubernatorial elections and presents
recommendations.
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