January 2015 SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT: TOWARDS 2015 ELECTIONS

Less than two weeks to the conduct of general elections in Nigeria, the political atmosphere is charged with political activities including incidences of violence, provocative utterances and hate speeches. The utterances of some political leaders in both the conventional and the social media and the manifestation of violence in some parts of the country even before the elections have heightened tension in the country. There are also reports that some Nigerians have begun to relocate to other countries or to other parts of Nigeria as a result of this fear.

In spite of some calls to postpone the February general elections, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is forging ahead with its preparations. The commission has released the breakdown of 119, 973 polling units where the elections will hold nationwide and have deployed 145,000 smart card readers to all the states and the FCT. The introduction of smart card readers explains why INEC cannot allow those with temporary voter cards to vote in February. INEC has commenced the distribution of non-sensitive voting materials and extended the distribution of PVCs to February 8 to ensure that every registered voter secure his or her PVC before the 14th of February.

Risks Factors
Across board, there are six major threats to security within the next few days to the elections;
I.    Dangerous and hate speeches by politicians, youths and at the lower levels of the states.
II.    Tardiness of INEC in the distribution of PVCs and the conduct of elections.
III.    Intimation and mudslinging.
IV.    Poor management of election – logistics, failure of card readers, real or passive vote rigging.
V.    Crisis of expectation or frustration occasioned by failure to win an election. 
VI.    Perceived partisanship of security agencies.

Violent Hotspots/Regional Analysis
•    RED: NC – Benue, Nasarawa, Niger and Plateau; NE – Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe, NW – Kaduna, Kano and Kastina SS – Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta; SW – Lagos, Ekiti and Oyo SE – Imo, Ebonyi
•    AMBER: NC Federal Capital Territory, Kogi, and Kwara; NW – Zamfara, Sokoto, SE – Enugu, Abia and Anambra; SS – Cross River; SW – Ogun and Ondo
•    GREEN: NW- Jigawa and Kebbi, SW – Osun; SE – SS- Edo and Akwa Ibom

Recommendations
To mitigate possible violence will require a nuanced understanding of the politics of the region and respond to some of the key concerns of the people.
I.    Efforts to contain the insurgency in the northeast, and stop its spread into other regions and states should be intensified;
II.    The government, NEMA and security agencies should set up rapid response strategy in the event of a crisis, both humanitarian and security, especially around flash point areas;
III.    All political parties and candidates should be encouraged to focus on issue based politics around the election and avoid hate or inciting speech. There should be effective monitoring to ensure that parties and candidates abide by the Abuja Accord;
IV.    INEC should respond to the complaints from the distribution of PVCs with all seriousness. INEC should ensure all registered voters received their PVC.

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