Monday, 28 November 2016

Post-Election Statement by CLEEN Foundation on the 26 November, 2016 Governorship Election in Ondo State

Introduction

CLEEN Foundation observed the 26 November, 2016 Governorship election in Ondo state, with specific focus on the security dimensions of the election. The mission was in furtherance of a series of interventions earlier made by the organization to enhance electoral security in the state. Such interventions included the deployment of CLEEN Foundation and INEC Electoral Institute Election Violence Mitigation Tool (EVMT), the conduct and release of a comprehensive report on Security Threat Assessment (STA) for the election and the training of senior police officers, including all Divisional Police Officers (DPOs) and Area Commanders across the 18 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of the state on election security management. As it has turned out, happenings across the 18 LGAs have largely validated the STA report; the same way all the interventions have positively impacted the electoral landscape in general and electoral security management in particular.

In this report, we present key findings from the reports of our observers, given that our primary focus was on electoral security management, greater attention is paid to issues in the deployment and conduct of security agents in the election.

Methodology

CLEEN Foundation deployed observers across the 18 LGAs of the state. Each LGA has one stationary observer, with a checklist containing important questions about the deployment and conduct of security agents during the election. These were in addition to two other roving observers, whose activities cover at least three LGAs each. These were complemented with information sharing among partner organisations in the Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room for the Ondo election under the coordination of the Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre (PLAC).

Political Background

The race for the 2016 governorship election in Ondo state was highly competitive but tendentious. Many factors could have been responsible to this. First, the dramatis personae in the 2012 governorship election remained key players in 2016. The incumbent Governor Olusegun Mimiko, a two-termer, did notconceal his strong preference for Eyitayo Jegede over all other contenders within his party. Rotimi Akeredolu, the APC candidate, was also the candidate of ACN in 2012. Olusola Oke, one of those who contested the primary on the platform of APC, but lost out and defected to pick the ticket for the AD, wasthe PDP candidate in the 2012 election. Contestations over the processes and outcomes of party primaries and candidate selection generated considerable intra and inter-party tensions and conflict. Second, the internal schism within the PDP at the national level only served to complicate matters. The two competing national executives of the party conducted parallel primaries and produced candidates for the election. While Jegede emerged from the Ahmed Markarfi faction, Jimoh Ibrahim emerged from the platform of Alli Modu Sherrif. Third, the attendant litigations and counter litigations came with their own complications. Above all else, the exclusion of Eyitayo Jegede from the election by INEC, until a few days to the election, when the Supreme Court ruled to the contrary, was generally seen as a major source of election security threat. Before the Supreme Court ruling, there were pockets of protests across the state; there were also protests and demands for the postponement of the election, especially from the PDP. These and related factors heightened the political temperature of the state before the election.


General Observations
The administration of the 2016 governorship election in Ondo state will go down as one of the most effective in recent times. The main defining elements of the election include its overall peacefulness, good organization, including timely deployment of electoral materials and officers, adequate electoral security management, timely collation and release of results, among others. More specifically, CLEEN Foundation’s observers found:
Ø  Early deployment of electoral materials and personnel, as well as early opening of pooling centres and commencement of voting in most polling units covered in the state;
Ø  Orderly organization  of polling units, including appropriate placement of voting points in a way that guarantees independence of choice, openness and transparency;
Ø  Professionalism on the part of electoral officers, including substantial improvement in the handling of electoral processes and procedures by adhoc staff of INEC;
Ø  Substantial improvement in the level of coordination and communication between/among different stakeholders  -political parties, security agencies, electoral officers- in handling and resolving contentious issues;
Ø  The deployment of technical assistants from INEC’s headquarters to attend swiftly to challenges emanating from the use of Smart Card Readers;
Ø  Timely collation and release of results at all levels -Polling units (PUs), registration areas (Wards), LGAs and state level;
Ø  Overall improvement in dealing with the challenges of electoral logistics, including transportation and deployment of materials and officers. This has usually been a major source of concern in previous elections;
Ø  Drastic reduction in the level of electoral violence compared to previous elections;
Ø  Substantial compliance with the legal frameworks governing the administration of the election, including simultaneous accreditation and voting.

Despite these advances, however, our observers also reported some negative dimensions of the election, namely:
Ø  Malfunctioning of Smart Card Readers (SCRs) in some Pus, which made accreditation difficult, slow and/or impossible in some Pus;
Ø  Attempts at vote buying by party agents and/or chieftains who were seen distributing money in order to influence the direction of voting;
Ø  Pockets of electoral violence, including snatching of electoral materials such as SCRs and  ballot papers;
Ø  Low level of voters turnout in most of the Pus visited;



Security Agencies and Election Security

Election security management is pivotal for the promotion of election integrity by engendering political competition, participation and legitimacy and vice versa. Our observers found that the adequate provision of election security by security agencies largely explains the substantial improvement in the effectiveness of the administration of the 2016 Ondo governorship election. Security agents were found to have demonstrated exemplary professionalism that has been missing in previous elections. In particular, security agencies were found to have excelled in the following ways:
Ø  Timely deployment of security agents to PUs, RAs, collation centres and INEC offices across the 18 LGAs of the state. It was found in 33.3%, 56.6% and 11.1% of the PUs covered by our observers, security agents arrived before 7.00am, 7 - 7.59am and 8 - 8.59am respectively.
Ø  Deployment was also found to be adequate, defined mainly in terms of number of security agents per PUs. Specifically, a minimum of two (2) or three (3) or more security agents were found in 11.1% and 88.9% of PUs visited by our observers respectively.
Ø  In addition to the above, our observers found security agents to either be very adequate or adequate in 38.9% and 61.9% of the PUs they visited respectively.
Ø  Exemplary professionalism of security agents, including unusual politeness in relating with voters and electoral officers. For example, our observers found security agents to be very approachable and approachable in 66.7% and 33.3% of the PUs they covered respectively. It is also gratifying that security agents did not leave their duty post at anytime in 94.4% of the PUs visited, but did so in 5.6% others. Moreover, security agents were found to be following instructions given by the presiding officers in all (100%) of the PUs visited by our observers.
Ø  Sufficient demonstration of neutrality and impartiality across most PUs visited by our observers. Specifically, security agents were found to be very impartial and impartial in 61.1% and 33.9% of visited PUs respectively.
Ø  Discernible improvement in the level of inter-agency collaboration among security agencies during the elections. The Police, Civil Defence and a few others were seen working together harmoniously;
Ø  Prompt response to distress calls, as was the case in PU 005, Ward 3, Akoko South East LGA where thugs had hijacked SCR and ballot papers. The DPO quickly reacted by leading his men, in the company of INEC’s Electoral Officer for the LGA and supervisor from Akure;
Ø  Resort to aerial surveillance through the use of helicopters that flew round the LGAs during the election. This, together with other improvements, enhances people’s feeling of safety and security during the election. People felt very safe and secure, safe and secure and somewhat safe and secure in 50%, 44.4% and 5.6% of the PUs visited by our observers.
Ø  Provision of escort for the deployment of electoral materials and officers;
Ø  Overall, the performance of security agents in the Ondo election was found to be very good in 61.1%; good in 33.3% and fair in 5.6% of the PUs visited by CLEEN Foundation’s observers.

There were also some unhelpful trends in the deployment and conduct of security agents:
Ø  A few cases of professional misconduct were reported by our observers. These include collection of ‘brown envelop’ from party agents and/or chieftains, drunkenness and inappropriate dressing;
Ø  The welfare question again was very prominent as many security agents reportedly complained about their deployment without attention to their feeding and related allowances. Many of them resorted begging for money to eat;
Ø  Poor response to some cases, particularly vote buying by party agents on the day of the election;

Recommendations

CLEEN Foundation is generally pleased and satisfied with the high level of professionalism, competence and general capacity demonstrated by INEC, political parties, security agencies, civil society organizations (CSOs), the electorate and related stakeholders in the administration of the 2016 Ondo election. The electoral processes and outcomes would appear to enjoy broad acceptability nationally and internationally. Nevertheless, there is still room for improvement. With respect to election security, our primary focus, CLEEN Foundation considers the following recommendations as pertinent:
Ø  There is need to pay more attention to the welfare needs of security agents so as to get them fully motivated and committed to the tasks of electoral security;
Ø  All security agents deployed for election duties should be made to sign and oath of allegiance to some ethical codes of conduct the violation of which would attract severe penalty;
Ø  More professional and periodic training for security agents on the theory and practice of election security.


We commend the efforts of INEC, the Police and other security agencies for their outstanding performance towards ensuring that the Ondo gubernatorial election was peaceful and successful;

We also congratulate the people of Ondo State for their peaceful conduct during the election and after the release of the results;

The CLEEN Foundation is a non-governmental organization established in 1998 and registered with the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC), to promote public safety, security and accessible justice. CLEEN Foundation is a member of several networks across the world and also has observer status with the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights. For more information please visit www.cleen.org

Friday, 18 November 2016

Election Security Threat Assessment: Towards the 2016 Governorship Election in Ondo State

ELECTION SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT: TOWARDS THE 2016 GOVERNORSHIP ELECTION IN ONDO STATE
Election Security Threat Assessment: Towards the 2016 Governorship Election in Ondo state

Introduction

All other things being equal, the people of Ondo state will go to the poll on 26 November, 2016, to elect a governor who will lead the state for the next four years. Like all others before it, this gubernatorial election promises to be, arguably, the most keenly contested in the recent history of the state, especially under the fourth republic. It also has potentials for violence for obvious reasons. Above all else, the presence of election risk factors, most notablya history of electoral violence, contentious party primaries and candidate selection, intra-party conflict andfractionalization, litigations, counter-litigations and contradictory court orders/pronouncements attest to these possibilities.The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressive Congress (APC) would appear to be the worst hit in these contradictions.Moreover, the electoral stakes are very high and the major political parties are strategizing to outdo one another. The attendant heating up of the political temperature of the state, if not well-managed,could generate violence of immense proportion during and immediate after the election.This places huge responsibility on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC),security agencies, mass media and other stakeholders in the overall governance of the election. The way these agencies comport themselves could help to salvage the situation or exacerbate it. This analysis explores potential security risks and flashpoints during the governorship election in the state. It also reflects some mitigating factors to could help remedy the situation.

A Brief History of Ondo State
Ondo state, popularly referred to as the “Sunshine State”, was created from the defunct Western State on 3rd February, 1976.  It covers a land area of 14,793 square kilometers with its administrative capital at Akure.  The population of the state in the 1991 census figures was 2,249,548 while year 2006 census puts the population at 3,441,024, comprising 1,761,263 males and 1,679,761 females.
Located in the southwestern zone of Nigeria, the state is made up of 18 Local Government Areas, and is bounded in the north by Ekiti and Kogi States, in the east by Edo State; in the west by Osun and Ogun states and in the south by the Atlantic Ocean. Ondo State is located entirely within the tropics. The tropical climate of the state is broadly of two seasons:  rainy season (April-October) and dry season (November – March).  A temperature throughout the year ranges between 21oc to 29oc and humidity is relatively high.  The annual rainfall varies from 2,000mm in the southern areas to 1,150mm in the northern areas.  The state enjoys luxuriant vegetation with high forest zone (rain forest) in the south and sub-savannah forest in the northern fringe. The state is also endowed with numerous rivers, creeks and lakes, including Owena, Ala, Oluwa, Oni, Awara, Ogbese and Ose.
Onso State is peopled predominantly by Yorubas who speak various dialects of the Yoruba language such as the Akoko, Akure, Apoi, Idanre, Ijaw, Ikale, Ilaje, Ondo and the Owo. The state is blessed with resourceful, industrious and hospitable people.  Her crop of educated elite has led to its being classified as one of the most educationally advanced states in Nigeria.  The people are mostly subsistence farmers, fishermen and traders. The life patterns of the people represent an embodiment of culture, ranging from the local foodstuff to the mode of dressing, dancing, wood crafts, such as, carved house posts and decorated doors.  Antiquities and artifacts are also preserved in palaces of traditional rulers some of which have been declared as National Monuments.
The state has three Senatorial Districts; eight Federal House of Representative seats, 23 State House of Assembly Seat, 18 Local Government Areas. The three Senatorial Districts are Ondo North made up of Akoko North East, Akoko North West, Akoko South East, Akoko South West, Owola and Ose Local Government Areas; Ondo Central consisting of Akure South, Akure North; Ifedore/Igaraoke, Ondo West and Ondo East; and Ondo South, which consists of Odigbo, Irele, Ilaje, Ese Odo, Okitipupa and Ile Oluji/Oke Igbo LGAs. The distribution of LGAs according to Senatorial District is shown in the table below:
Table I: LGAs by Senatorial Districts in Ondo state
S/N
Senatorial District
LGAs
1.
Ondo North
Akoko North East, Akoko North West, Akoko South East, Akoko South West, Owola and Ose Local Government Areas
2
Ondo Central
Akure South, Akure North; Ifedore/Igaraoke, Ondo West and Ondo East
3
Ondo South
Odigbo, Irele, Ilaje, Ese Odo, Okitipupa and Ile Oluji/Oke Igbo

The Economy of Ondo State
The economy of Ondo state is basically agrarian strong bias in farming, fishing, lumbering and trading. The state is reputed for large scale production of cocoa, palm produce and rubber.  Other crops like maize, yam and cassava are produced in large quantities. Sixty-five percent of the state labour force is in the agriculture sub-sector.  The state is also blessed with very rich forest resources where some of the most exotic timber in Nigeria abounds. 
The State is equally blessed with extensive deposits of crude oil, bitumen, glass sand, kaolin, granites and limestone. Therefore, the state has great potentials for rapid industrial growth in view of its raw materials base.
The tourism potentials of the state is also high as its historical sites, long coastline, lakes, forest and cultural events can be developed for tourism.  However, these very huge investment potentials in the state remain largely untapped over the years due to a combination of technical and administrative reasons.

Politics in Ondo State
As part and parcel of the defunct Western region, what is today referred to as Ondo state could be said to have a deep political history that dates back to the anti-colonial struggles under the influence of the Action Group (AG). It is, therefore, hardly surprising to note that the politics of the state since independence has manifested progressive tendencies associated with the AG, which held sway in the region in the first republic.

During the second republic (1979-1983), by which time the state had been created, the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), AG’s successor in the South West, continued to dominate the politics of the state. During the period, the late Chief Michael AdekunleAjasin of the UPN won the governorship election of 1979. However, by the second election of 1983, Akinwole Michael Omoboriowo, Ajasin’s deputy from 1979-1983, decamped to the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), the ruling party at the centre, to contest the governorship race with Ajasin. As it turned out, Omoboriowo was officially declared winner of the governorship election by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO). The declaration heralded an unprecedented level of post-election violence across the state, popularly referred to as operation wet e, during which many lives were lost and properties worth several billions of Naira destroyed. The state was, as a source puts it, ‘the house of war’ during the period. Ajasin of the UPN eventually reclaimed his mandate and Omoboriowo flew the state.

During the short-lived third republic (1992-1993), Chief BamideleOlumilua of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) won the governorship election. His reign was, however, cut short with the abortion of the republic via the annulment of 12 June 1999 presidential election by the Babangida regime. As the country returned to democracy in 1999, following years of military autocracy, Chief Adebayo Adefarati of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) was elected Governor of the state. Adefarati, however, lost in his re-election bid in 2003 when Dr Olusegun Agagu of the PDP was elected the governor of the state. Agagu, who was earlier declared to have won his reelection bid in 2007, eventually lost to the incumbent governor of the state, Olusegun Mimiko of the Labour Party (LP), who happened to be a member of his inner cabinet, after protracted legal battles over the winner of the election.

The race for the governorship seat in the 20 October, 2012 election was keenly contested among there major parties, namely the LP, Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN) and PDP. The spate of decamping, especially from the LP to other parties, added more intensity to the race. Many had contended that since until then, no governor/party had been able to win a second term in the state under the fourth republic that Mimiko of LP would lose to another candidate. However, asit turned out, Mimiko defied the odds and made history as the first governor to win a second term in the state under the fourth republic. This feat was attributed to an alleged agreement between Mimiko and President Jonathan, which required that the former defect to the PDP after the election. That eventually happened.

In the race for the 2016 governorship election, it is important that the dramatis personae in the 2012 governorship election remain key players. Although Mimiko is no longer contesting having done so and won twice, he is believed to have been very central in the determination of his successor, showing strong preference for Jegede over Jimoh Ibrahim. Akeredolu Ale, the APC candidate, was also the candidate of ACN in 2012. OlusolaOke, one of those who contested the primary on the platform of APC, but lost out and defected to pick the ticket for the AD, was the PDP candidate in 2012 election. These add interesting dimensions to the 2016 gubernatorial election.

Parties and Candidates in the 26 November, 2016 Gubernatorial Election
The race for the Alagbaka Government house is a keen contest with 28 political parties fielding candidates. The candidates are:
S/N
STATE
NAME OF CANDIDATE
SEX
PARTY
AGE
QUALIFICATION

ONDO





1
GOVERNOR
AMUDA OLADARE
M
A
55
MBA

DEPUTY
AMBODE ALEXANDER ABIODUN
M
A
51
PHD
2
GOVERNOR
YINKA OLOYEDE OROKOTO
M
AA
54
LLB, BL.

DEPUTY
ABIOLA OJO
M
AA
46
B. TECH
3
GOVERNOR
FRANCIS ADETUWO OGUNJUMELO
M
ACPN
68
FCMA, FCA

DEPUTY
IKUSIKA GRACE OLANIKE
F
ACPN
63
NCE
4
GOVERNOR
OLUSOLA ALEX OKE
M
AD
60
LLB, BL.

DEPUTY
DAUDA GANNY OLUWADARE
M
AD
59
ADV. DIPLOMA
5
GOVERNOR
 MARGARETA MODUPE OGUNYOKU (OJO)
F
ADC
60
DIPLOMA

DEPUTY
AGANMAYO ISEOLUWA
M
ADC
34
ND
6
GOVERNOR
OLUYI FOLASHADE HELLEN
F
APA
47
GRADE II

DEPUTY
OWOEYE DAMILOLA JONATHAN
M
APA
36
NABTEB
7
GOVERNOR
OLUWAROTIMI ODUNAYO AKEREDOLU
M
APC
60
LLB, BL

DEPUTY
ALFRED AGBOOLA AJAYI
M
APC
47
WAEC
8
GOVERNOR
FRANCIS ADEYEMI ALAO
M
APGA
61
MSC

DEPUTY
FAMUSIPE RUFUS IDOWU
M
APGA
51
NCE
9
GOVERNOR
FUNMILAYO JENYO ATAUNOKO
M
BNPP
43
SSCE

DEPUTY
OLAJOBI OLALEKAN ABIMBOLA
M
BNPP
45
BA. HONS
10
GOVERNOR
FASUA PETER OYELEYE
M
CPP
55
B.SC

DEPUTY
OWOLABI SALIU YUSUF
M
CPP
68
M.SC
11
GOVERNOR
ADEEYO MATTHEW BOLORUNDARO
M
DPC
59
B. TECH

DEPUTY
OLAIYA REMILEKUN MARGARETH
F
DPC
42
SSCE
12
GOVERNOR
FALANA OLAMIDE JULIANA
F
DPP
33
B.TECH

DEPUTY
LAWRENCE KEHINDE FESTUS
M
DPP
42
WAEC
13
GOVERNOR
ODEDEYI OLUMUYIWA JOHN
M
HDP
40
B.SC

DEPUTY
OLOWOKANGA SAMUEL
M
HDP
57
B.SC
14
GOVERNOR
SAMUEL OLUWATOYIN AKOGUNRIN
M
ID
37
B.SC

DEPUTY
FAMUAGUN OLUWATOSIN MOSES
M
ID
35
ND
15
GOVERNOR
DANIEL OLUDARE OGUNGBEMI
M
KOWA
36
LLB, BL

DEPUTY
FAUSAT ADEOLA ALIU
F
KOWA
62
NCE
16
GOVERNOR
ADEUTI STEPHEN TAYE
M
LP
65
MBA

DEPUTY
AKINBAMIRE ADEBAYO BENSON
M
LP
60
PGD
17
GOVERNOR
OBAYORIJU JIMOH ABASS
M
NCP
46
HND

DEPUTY
OWOLABI OLALEKAN STEPHEN
M
NCP
35
B.SC, PGD
18
GOVERNOR
OLUWADARE BADA
M
NNPP
63
BM & S

DEPUTY
JONATHAN AJINDE SUNDAY
M
NNPP
59
WAEC, RN
19
GOVERNOR
AYIBIOWU MOSES IGE
M
NUP
43
MBA

DEPUTY
OJO AKINWALE OLADAPO
M
NUP
42
M.SC
20
GOVERNOR
OLUWASEGUN ODIDI
M
PDC
45
B.SC

DEPUTY
OLATUNJI LEO SEGUN
M
PDC
39
LLB, BL
21
GOVERNOR
JIMOH IBRAHIM FOLORUNSO
M
PDP
49
LLB, MPA

DEPUTY
ALABI EBENEZER OMOTAYO
M
PDP
49
B.SC
22
GOVERNOR
ADENIYAN ABIODUN DANIEL
M
PPA
44
B.SC

DEPUTY
OLADELE TOLANI BAMITALE
F
PPA
38
HND
23
GOVERNOR
ORUNMOLUYI TEMIDOLA OLAGBEGI
F
PPN
55
GRADE II

DEPUTY
ONISEMO MICHAEL OLADAPO
M
PPN
36
HND
24
GOVERNOR
ARIGBEDE ROLAND GBENGA
M
PRP
39
OND

DEPUTY
OLADELE PAUL OLUWASESAN
M
PRP
36
B.SC
25
GOVERNOR
OLU AGUNLOYE
M
SDP
68
B.SC, PHD

DEPUTY
MODUPE AKINDELE MARTINS
F
SDP
43
HND
26
GOVERNOR
OLUGBENGA AKINWALE FALAIYE
M
UDP
42
B.SC

DEPUTY
SEIBU LAMIDI
M
UDP
51
B.ED
27
GOVERNOR
AIDI BOLARINWA ELIJAH
M
UPN
49
LLB, BL, MBA

DEPUTY
TIEWEI JULIUS
M
UPN
56
B.SC
28
GOVERNOR
ANTHONY ADENIYI ADENIRANYE
M
YDP
37
MSC

DEPUTY
EGBEOLA OLAWALE MARTINS
M
YDP
39
B.SC

However, the contest for the governorship race seems to be among four main contenders, namely the AD. APC, PDP and SDP.
AD Candidate: OlusolaOke
OlusolaOke was born on April 7, 1956 at the little fishing settlement of Ilowo located on the Ilaje coastline of Ondo State. He attended the UNA Primary School in the community in 1961. He enrolled at the then University of Ife and bagged LLB in 1986 and was called to the Nigerian Bar on October 22, 1987. Oke ventured into politics and was initially a member of the Ondo State Board of Internal Revenue in 1991 before he got elected into the Lower Chamber of the National Assembly as a representative of Ilaje/Ese-Odo Constituency in 1992 on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
At the return of democracy in 1999, he became a member of the board of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) representing Ondo State. When the tenure of the board expired, Oke became the Chairman of the Ondo State Oil-Producing Areas Development Commission (OSOPADEC), and in the 2003 general elections, he was denied the seat of Ondo South Senatorial District in controversial circumstances after getting his party's (PDP) ticket and announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as the winner of the election.
Oke was a member of the National Political Reform Conference (NPRC) in 2005 and had served as Chairman of the Boards of the Federal Polytechnic, Bida and the Steel Raw Materials Exploration Agency, Kaduna as well as a member of the Technical Committee of the Federal Government on Niger Delta. He is the immediate past National Legal Adviser of the PDP.
He was the governorship candidate of the PDP in the 2012 governorship election, where he lost to the incumbent governor. He later joined the APC and contested the governorship primaries where he lost to RotimiAkeredolu. Following alleged manipulation of the primary in favour of Akeredolu, and the futility of affords aimed at obtaining redress within the party, he defected to the AD where he obtained the ticket. Many believed that he has political structures spread across the state and financial resources to prosecute the governorship race. Besides, his political experience over the years is seen as an asset that could boost his chances. He will have to contend with other formidable forces especially the APC.
APC Candidate: RotimiAkeredolu, SAN
OluwarotimiAkeredolu was born to Reverend J. Ola Akeredolu of Akeredolu family in Owo and Evangelist Grace B. Akeredolu of Aderoyiju family of Igbotu, EseOdo, on the 21st July, 1956 in Owo. He started his primary education at Government School, Owo before he proceeded to Aquinas College, Akure, Loyola Colege, Ibadan and Comprehensive High School, Ayetoro, for his secondary school education and Higher School Certificate, respectively. Akeredolu went to the University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University) to study Law, graduated in 1977 and was called into the Nigerian Bar in 1978. He was appointed Attorney General of Ondo State from 1997-1999 and was made a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) in1998.
As an activist, he served the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) at various levels starting as the Secretary General of the Ibadan branch in 1985 and has been a member of the National Executive Council of the Association since then. He served as the Publicity Secretary during the regime of the late Alao Aka Bashorun, a period considered as the golden era of the Bar, 1988-1989. He was also a member of Legal Aid Council of Nigeria from 1989 to 1991 and became its Chairman in 2005. He was a member of the Governing Council, Nigerian Institute of Advanced Legal Studies between 2008 and 2010, a member of Council of Legal Education, a member of Council, International Bar Association and Pan African Lawyers Union during the same period. He currently serves as NBA representative in the National Judicial Council (NJC).
Akeredolu was also the governorship candidate of the ACN in the 2013 election where he lost to incumbent Governor Mimiko. Reputed as better positioned than in 2012 now that he enjoys federal support (party at the centre), concerns have been raised about the manner of the party primary that produces his candidature. Attendant rifts and conflicts would appear to have weakened the party with fractionalization and a gale of defections to other parties. In his electioneering campaigns, like in 2012, Akeredolu has continued to emphasize the abuse and mismanagement of state resources by the incumbent government and promised to redress such if elected:
SDP Candidate: Dr. OluAgunloye
Dr. OluAgunloye was born to the families of Mr. J. O. Agunloye in Erusu-Akoko and Chief Mrs J. A. Agunloye of the Osuporu family in Owo. He attended Ondo Boys High School, Ondo from 1961 to 1965, where he passed out with Grade 1. He attended the University of Ibadan to read Physics from 1966 to 1970 and graduated with Second Class Upper Division. He enrolled for postgraduate studies in Department of Physics at the University of Ibadan and Applied Physical Science, University of Reading, UK. He obtained a PhD degree in Physics in March 1974. He was appointed Lecturer in the Department of Physics, University of Ibadan in March 1974. Thereafter, he obtained a Master’s degree in Applied Geophysics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT, Cambridge, USA in 1976 while still lecturing at the University of Ibadan.
DrOluAgunloye emerged the governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) for the November 26 governorship election in Ondo State through a party primary where he was the only aspirant. However, his candidacy was endorsed by 291 of the 310 delegates from the 18 LGAs of the state.
It is instructive to note that DrAgunloye was a former Minister of Power during the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo. He was also ADVERTISING
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the pioneer Corps Marshal of the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC).
After his emergence as the SDP candidate, Dr. Agunloye, in his acceptance speech, thanked the party members and the chairman of the congress committee for finding him worthy to carry the flag of the party in the forthcoming gubernatorial election. He also used the occasion to make his governance plans known to the people. According to him, the SDO was on a rebuilding and rescuing mission, castigating the Governor Olusegun Mimiko’s administration for squandering the states resources in the last eight years. According to him:
I humbly accept the flag of the party and the responsibility associated with it.I assure you that I will not let the party down and will carry the flag to victory and install it high at the government house of Ondo State in February 2017... We are here today to signal a completely new path, new ways and new mindset. What you may call a shift from the unrealizable transformation programme of the PDP and unreliable ‘Change Agenda’ of the APC to a systems approach to citizens’ empowerment and food security. Our party seeks new way and better alternative entrenched in integrity of managing people, infrastructure and economy for people’s empowerment and emancipation.
Despite his solid credentials and vast political experience, the political platform he has chosen to pursue his political ambition, namely the SPD is generally seen to be weak in the state without any solid base. His record of always changing party, especially his defection from LP to ACN and back to LP shortly before and after the 2012 governorship election in the state respectively has been seen as another weak point.
PDP Candidate: Jimoh Ibrahim
Jimoh Ibrahim was born on February 24, 1967 to AlhajiYakubu and OmofemiwaJimoh of Igbotako in Okitipupa, Ondo State. His father was said to be a polygamous with 7 wives and 40 children. He studied law at Obafemi Awolowo University in Ile Ife, Osun State, Nigeria, where he bagged his LLB. He later Master of Public Administration (MPA) from the same university, before proceeding to Harvard UniversityCambridge, Massachusetts, USA, graduating with a combined Master of Laws (LLM) and Masters In International Taxation degree.

He is an established entrepreneur with business interests inoil and gas, distribution, hotels, resorts, airlines, banking, real estate, insurance, publishing and investments. These businesses are operated under the Global Fleet Group, a group company that is in Nigeria, and has business interests and subsidiaries in several other West African countries.

His foray into politics began in 2003 when he unsuccessfully expressed interest in becoming the governor of Ondo State, on the platform of All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP). .However, in August 2016, obtained the nomination form to contest for the November 2016 governorship election in Ondo state from Senator Ali Modu Sheriff’s factional executive of People Democratic Party (PDP). The attendant controversies linger on, including litigations and counter litigations. .However, INEC has recognised and adopted Jimoh Ibrahim as the PDP candidate in the election. For some people in the state, especially within the PDP, the decision of INEC to Uphold Jimoh Ibrahim at the expense of EyitayoJegede remains unpopular and has generated protests and tensions in some parts of the state. It has also seriously fractionalized the party in the state. This is considered as a major weak point of the candidate.

Be that as it may, Ibrahim has continued his electioneering campaigns, promising that if he is elected the governor of the state, he wouldinitiate reform measures that would help improve governance, including regular and up-to-date payment of workers’ salaries,

RESEARCH FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
A. Methodology
In preparing this report, the study adopts a combination of both descriptive qualitative and quantitative methods. As such, data collection employs the method of triangulation, involving a combination of several methods in the collection of data. Primary data were collected through the use of pre-election risk assessment protocol and instrument developed by the Electoral Institute of INEC to elicit information from the general public and experts in elections and election-related violence in Ondo state. More specifically, a total of 740 of the instrument evenly distributed between the broad categories of ‘General Public’ and ‘Experts’ were administered in the 18 LGAs of the state. This implies that 20 instruments per category of general public and experts were administered I each LGA, making a totalof 40 perLGA. This was complemented by Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) in the state. Secondary data were, however, collected through the use of media reports and reliable internet sources.
Table 2: Frequency Distribution of Respondents (General Public) per LGAs


Frequency
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative Percent
Valid
Akoko North East
20
5.7
5.7
5.7
Akoko North West
18
5.1
5.1
10.9
Akoko South East
18
5.1
5.1
16.0
AKOKO SOUTH WEST
20
5.7
5.7
21.7
Akure North
20
5.7
5.7
27.4
Akure South
20
5.7
5.7
33.1
Ese-Odo
18
5.1
5.1
38.3
IDANRE
20
5.7
5.7
44.0
Ifedore
20
5.7
5.7
49.7
ILAJE
19
5.4
5.4
55.1
Ile- oluji/Okeigbo
20
5.7
5.7
60.9
Irele
20
5.7
5.7
66.6
ODIGBO
19
5.4
5.4
72.0
OKITIPUPA
20
5.7
5.7
77.7
Ondo East
20
5.7
5.7
83.4
ONDO WEST
18
5.1
5.1
88.6
Ose
20
5.7
5.7
94.3
OWO
20
5.7
5.7
100.0
Total
350
100.0
100.0

Source: Field Work, CLEEN Foundation, November, 2016.
The administration of the instrument was preceded by a number of activities aimed at simplifying the task and boosting the reliability and credibility of the exercise. One of the most notable activities was the recruitment and training of field assistants who administered the instruments. This was further enhanced with the presence of field supervisors to monitor and ensure compliance with the rules of the game, including strict adherence to all relevant ethical considerations.
The representativeness of respondents across various categories of analysis was given adequate attention. In terms of geography, for example, the three senatorial districts were not only adequately represented since all LGAs were captured in the sample population, but almost in anequitable manner (see Table 4). Specifically, Ondo North has 116 (33.1%), Ondo Central 118 (33.7%) and Ondo South also 116 (33.1%).
The gender dimension of respondents was also significant, given the impressive representation of women across most of the LGAs (see Table 3).
Table 3: Gender Distribution of Respondents (General Public)


Frequency
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative %
Valid
Male
239
68.3
68.3
68.3
Female
111
31.7
31.7
100.0
Total
350
100.0
100.0


Table 4: Senatorial Distribution of Respondents (General Public)


Frequency
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative Percent
Valid
Ondo North
116
33.1
33.1
33.1
Ondo Central
118
33.7
33.7
66.9
Ondo South
116
33.1
33.1
100.0
Total
350
100.0
100.0


As could be seen from Table 3 above, of the 350 valid respondents, female representation stood at 111 (31.7%), while male was 239 (68.3%). Although the male respondents were more than their female counterparts, it is heartening to see that female representation crosses the 30% international benchmark at the aggregate level.
It is, important to note, however, that this does not tell the whole story of gender representation of respondents. There were a few instances (LGAs) where female respondents were actually more than male respondents. This was the case in Ilaje (63.2%), Ondo West (61.0%), EseOdo (55.6%), Ifedore (50.0%), the trio of Akure South, Akure North and Akoko South West where female respondents stood at (45.0%). There were also LGAs without a single female respondent, namely Owo, Ondo East, Okitipupa and Akoko North East which were all 100% male. Two other LGAs recorded less impressive representation of women, namely Ose (20.0%) and Akoko North East (15.0%). Despite these discrepancies, we are unable to draw any definite conclusion about gender and electoral violence. For one thing, it is outside the purview of thus report; for another, the discrepancy may be due to some other factors rather than a true reflection of the gender dimension of electoral violence, especially in terms of its agency and consequences.
The analysis of data was doneusing the qualitative and quantitative techniques, the former employing content analysis and the latter frequency distribution, simple percentages, tables, and charts.
In predicting and measuring the possibility and by extension the degree of violence at both the aggregate (state-wide) and specific (LGAs) levels, we adopt a classificatory scheme involving a range of scores indicating the probable degrees of violence with a lower and upper limits.In particular, RED ink is used to illustrate the highest level of election risk factors with a range of scores between 30-100%. This is followed by AMBERwith a lesser degree of violence and a range of scores from 10-29%; and GREENindicating a highly peaceful atmosphere with very limited likelihood of violence at 0-9%.
Table 5: Measuring Indicators of Possible Degree of Violence
Colour
Range of Scores (%)
Remarks
Red
30-100
Very violent
Amber
10-29
Violent
Green
0-9
Peaceful

B. Key Findings I: Aggregate Level Data

At the aggregate level (across the whole state), data generated from the study suggest that the 26 November, 2016 governorship election could generally be peaceful, devoid of any serious threats of violence. This much is evident from the various sources of information explored for the study.
Table 6: Responses to Q1 - Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful?                                                                                                              


Frequency
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative Percent
Valid
Strongly Agree
126
36.0
36.2
36.2
Agree
144
41.1
41.4
77.6
Undecided
37
10.6
10.6
88.2
Disagree
22
6.3
6.3
94.5
Strongly Disagree
19
5.4
5.5
100.0
Total
348
99.4
100.0

Missing
System
2
.6


Total
350
100.0



To begin with, majority of respondents at both the general public and expert categories are of the view that the elections would generally be peaceful. When asked to express their views as to whether the election in their respective locality will be peaceful or not, the responses were generally positive, as presented in Table 6 below. In specific terms, 126 (36%) and 144 (41.1%) of the respondents selected ‘strongly agree’ and ‘agree’ respectively. This gives a total of 270 (77.1%) of the respondents across the 18 LGAs of the state with positive response. Only 19 (5.4%) and 22 (6.3%) of the respondents selected ‘strongly disagree’ and ‘disagree’ respectively, amounting to a total of 22%.  37 (10.6%) were, however, undecided. Situated within our measuring indices, these data suggest that the governorship election in Ondo state will be relatively peaceful, with the likelihood of violence standing at 22%. This falls within the category of Amber. These responses are depicted in Figue I below.


The possibility of violence was further underscored by the significant drop in the degree of positive response to another general question, which happens to be the last on the instrument. Specifically, respondents were asked how, after going through a number of other questions on specific election risk factors in their locality, they though the election would go on the whole. The responses are presented in Table 7 below.

Table 7: Responses to Q70 - On the whole, how do you think that this election will go?


Frequency
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative Percent
Valid
VeryPeaceful
85
24.3
25.0
25.0
Peaceful
137
39.1
40.3
65.3
Undecided
76
21.7
22.4
87.6
Violent
26
7.4
7.6
95.3
Very Violent
16
4.6
4.7
100.0
Total
340
97.1
100.0

Missing
System
10
2.9


Total
350
100.0



In their responses, 85 (24.3%) and 137 (39.1%) were of the view that the election would be ‘very peaceful’ and ‘peaceful’ respectively. This gives a total of 222 (63%) positive responses, compared to of 270 (77%) to the first question, constituting a downward slide of 14%. On the other hand, 26 (7.4%) and 16 (4.6%) were of the view that the election would be ‘violent’ and ‘very violent’ respectively, totaling 42 (12, 0%). These responses are represented:in Figure II below:


Although this represents a sizeable drop from the degree of negative responses to the first question at 22%, the fact that a whopping 76(21.7%) were undecided in their responses to this question makes accurate generalization difficult.  Yet, the data suggest the possibility of a peaceful election with pockets of violence in the category of Amber..

C. Key Findings II: Disaggregated Data by LGAs on the Peacefulness of the Election
Whereas the aggregate data presented in the immediate preceding section has significant analytical and predictive capability, there are, however, observable discrepancies across LGAs In this section; we present data from the field survey on a local government by local government basis to underscore such variations. This way, we are able to predict more accurately the likelihood and degree of violence across the various LGAs of the state. The LGAs are presented in alphabetical order as shown in Tables 8 and 9 under the appendix.

Akoko North East
This LGA is generally known to be peaceful, without any recognizable history of electoral violence. The respondents expect the tradition of peaceful election to continue during the 2016 governorship election. When asked if the election in the area would be peaceful or not, all the respondents answered in the affirmative. While 8 (40%) strongly agreed, the other 12 (60%) agreed without any dissenting voice.

Category: Green

Akoko North West
Like in Akoko North West, Akoko North West is also generally known to be peaceful. It also has no history of electoral violence. As such, the people expect a peaceful election in the region. There are, however, some likely exceptions, with some touts known as the Good Boys’ around Arigidi and Ajowa both along Okeagbe road allegedly prepared to perpetuate violence in exchange for money. Despite this reservation, the general outlook of the survey was very positive as 8 (44.3%) and 6 (33.3%) of respondents ‘strongly agreed’ and ‘agreed’ that the election in the area would be peaceful respectively. This amounts to 77.6%, while the remaining 4 (26.2%) were undecided.

Category: Amber

Akoko South East
Like other parts of Akoko land in general, respondents expect the election to be peaceful. It has no history of violence and no specific hotspots of violence were identified in the LGA. In specific terms, 11 (61.1%) of the respondents strongly agreed that the election would be peaceful, while another 6 (33.3%) also agreed that it would be peaceful. This gives a total of 18 (94.4%) positive response. Only one of the respondents was undecided.

Category: Green

Akoko South West
The respondents largely expressed their expectation of a peaceful election in the LGA. In their responses, 13 (65%) and 4 (20%) strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election would be peaceful respectively, giving a total of 85%. However, 1 (5%) respondent each was undecided, strongly disagreed and disagreed. This suggests the likelihood of violence on a small scale in the area. The fact that some protest took place in the LGA, specifically at Akungba against the removal of EyitayoJegedeas PDP’s candidate is a pointer to such tendencies.

Category: Amber

Akure North

Since 1999 Akure North has been known for one form of violence or the other during elections.The 2016 governorship election may not be an exception and the signs are already manifesting. For example, the controversy over the authentic PDP candidate (Jimoh Ibrahim vs EyitayoJegede) hadalready generated pockets of protests with residents who indulged in the burning of tires on the main roads leading to the Local Government Areas right from Agbogbo filling Station.Jegedeis said to be very close to some communities in the LGA, particularlyIsinigbo. The LGA also hosts some communities notorious for electoral violence. For instance, Iju community reputed as the hub of political thugs and the hometown of Chief OmotayoAlasoadura, an APC stalwart and Senator representing the Ondo Central Senatorial District is within the LGA. Worse still, Senator Alasoadura was until recently a strong PDP member for sixteen years.Itaogboluis also said to be sensitive not only because it houses the Local Government Secretariat Training Centre, but more importantly for being a PDP-dominated Area and also very close to Isinigbo the ancestral home of EyitayoJegede, which has been wounded with the substitution of the name of their son as PDP candidate.

With these background information, it is hardly surprising that the level of expectation of peaceful election is not very high compared to the Akoko region. Only 4 (20%) strongly agreed that the election would be peaceful, while another 8 (40%) also agreed, making a total of 60%. While only 1 (5%) disagreed, a significant 7 (35%) were undecided. This suggest the possibility of violence on a bigger scale.

Category: Red

Akure South

The LGA is said to be generally known to be peaceful during elections. However, some respondents suggested that the saga over the PDP candidacy particularly as it affects EyitayoJegede may compel the people to rethink their participation in the election. For these people, the outcome of the court case could have an influence on the future direction of their participation. However, some others felt if the PDP make good its threat not to participate, then the election would be peaceful, accusing the party of the being the one fomenting violence in previous elections. Overall, respondents considered the Jimoh-Jegede saga as the greatest source of threats to the peaceful conduct of the election because Jegede hails from the LGA. Possible hotspots of violence include Okelisa, Odokoyi-Isolo,Odopetu-Irowo and Oda-Ilekun,

These observations are corroborated by the responses to the peacefulness or otherwise of the election in the region. Specifically, only 5 (25%) and 7 (35%) strongly agreed and agreed that the election would be peaceful in the area respectively, making a total of 60%. Conversely, 2 (10%) each strongly disagreed and disagreed, while only 4 (20%) were undecided.

Category: Red

Ese Odo

The area has a history of electoral violence especially in the riverine axis.Communities such as Agadagba, Arogbo and Bolowohave been identified as potential flashpoints because of their history with election. Apkaramo, located in the river side, has also listed among potential hotspots because of its problematic location and terrain. Despite this history, respondents expect a largely peaceful election, with 8 (44.4%) and 8 (44.4%) strongly agreeing and agreeing respectively, making a total of 88.8%. Only one (1) was undecided and another one (1) disagreed.

Category: Amber

Idanre

Respondents expect a peaceful election, as has become customary in the area. However, they also express concerns over some factors they felt could generate violence during the election. These include the contentious primaries conducted by the PDP and APC, a history of vote-buying and the distant location of voting units. Likely hotspots identified by respondents includeAkuro St. Joseph’s Secondary school, OdodeIdanre because the Chief of Staff to the Ondo State Governor resides in the area; and T-Junction along Owa of Idanre’s Palace because Dr. Kola Ademujimi’s personal hospital and house that are located there. Both of them may want to deliver their areas. In the field survey, 10 (50%) of the respondent strongly agreed that the election would be peaceful in the area, while 7 (35%) also agreed, making a total of 85%. Two (10%) however disagreed while one (1) was undecided.
Category: Amber
Ifedore
Respondents expressed concerns over certain developments that could leadto violence during the election in the area. Above all else, Igbaraoke, the headquarters of Ifedore LGA, is the country home of Engr. Clement Faboyede, the Ondo State PDP Chairman, who may want to deliver the votes in his domain at all costs. The controversy surrounding Jimoh Ibrahim and EyitayoJedgede PDP’s candidacy was also highlighted across various parts of the LGA. Potential hotspots identified by respondents include Akure Garage close to St Paul’s Anglican Church because it’s the hub of political thugs; IlaraMokin around St Peter Clever Catholic Church because it’s APC dominated area; and other PDP dominated areas such asIjaraand Ipoguncommunities. The survey report lends credence to this tendencies as 8 (40%) and 4(20%) of the respondents strongly agreed and agreed that the election in the area would be peaceful respectively. 3 (15%) were undecided, another 3 (15%) strongly disagreed and 2 (10%) disagreed.
Category: Amber
Ilaje

Generally the people expect the election to be peaceful. This evident from the survey report which shows that 8 (42.1%) of respondents strongly agreed that the elections would be peaceful in the area; and another 10 (52.6%) also agreed, making a total of 94.7%. Only 1(5.3%) disagreed.

This finding is surprising given the history of violence in the areas not only over elections, but also as part of the oil producing communities involved in the Niger Delta struggles. Moreover, it is also the country home of OlusolaOke, the AD candidate, as well as the maternal home of RotimiAkeredolu, the APC candidate. Worse still, the administration of election in the area may be confronted by some logistic challenges, most notably transportation in the riverine areas.

Category: Green

Ile-Oluji/Oke Igbo
Respondents were of the view that the election in the areas would be peaceful. 14 (70%) agreed with this proposition. However, 2 (10%) respondents each strongly disagreed and agreed, while 1 (5%) was undecided. Nevertheless, there some issues of concern were also highlighted. For example, a number of high profile PDP stalwart have defected to the APC, Dr. Pius Osunkunmi, the Director General of Technical Aid Corps, who was once a PDP member; and Hon AlegboyeAdegbemisoye who was once a PDP stalwart and Executive Chairman of Ile-Oluji/OkeigboLGA but now in APC. Their domains have been identified as possible flash points.
Category: Amber
Irele
Respondents expect the elections in this area to be peaceful because the area has no history of electoral violence.This expectation is reinforced by the responses to the main question where 5 (25%) and 13 (65%) strongly agreed and agreed that the election would be peaceful respectively, making a total of 90%. Only 1 (5%) respondent was undecided without any negative opinion. However, respondents alluded to the presence of creeks and militants in the river-side areas of the LGA.
Category: Green
Odigbo
The area reportedly has no serious record of electoral violence since 1999. As such, people expect a continuation of the peaceful tradition in the area. Almost all responses were positive, where 7 (26.8%) and 12 (63.2%) of the respondents strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election would be peaceful, given a total of 90%. No particular part of the area was identified as a hotspot.
Category: Green
Okitipupa
The expectation of a peaceful election was widely expressed by the people. 9 (45%) and 8 (40%) of the respondents strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election in the areas would be peaceful, giving a total of 85%. However, 3 (15%) were undecided. However, the terrain of the area was identified as a source of concern, especially with respect to election logistics and transportation in the river-sides of the LGA. Despite this, no part of the LGA was identified as a hotspot.
Category: Green
Ondo East

Though regarded as a peaceful LGA, respondents here were not very positive about the prospect of a peaceful election. This may not be unconnected with the fact that it falls under one of the strongholds of incumbent Governor Olusegun Mimiko, who has been deeply embroiled in the controversy associated with EyitayoJegede. Besides, the LGA is also said to harbour a few hotspots, especially within the local government headquarter (Bolorunduro) and Owena. Only 3 (15%) and 6 (30%) of the respondents strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election in the region would be peaceful, giving a dismal total of 45%. Conversely, 4 (20%), 4 (20%) and 3 (15%) were undecided, strongly disagreed and disagreed respectively.

Category: Red

Ondo West
The LGA is considered as a potential hotspot for obvious reasons. First, it is the country home of the incumbent Governor Olusegun Mimiko, who is currently engrossed in the struggle to get EyitayoJegede restored as the flag bearer of the PDP in the governorship election. Second, the area has a history of electoral violence. Our findings revealed that during the 2015 election, there were gun shots and snatching of ballot boxes atAnsarundeen High School; opposition party members were said to have been denied right to vote at Surelere area; and Shokotiand Esso arereputed as the hub of political thugs who always threaten the people in the area. Yet, the Jimoh-Jegede crisis was identified as a source of violence as people in the area have been protesting the substitution of Jegede. Respondents corroborate these tendencies when only 2 (11.1%) and 6 (30%) strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election in the area would be peaceful, making a dismal total of 41.1%. 3 (16.7%), 2 (11.1%) and 4 (22.2%) were undecided, strongly disagreed and disagreed respectively.

Category: Red

Ose

This area is identified as a potential flashpoint for many reasons. One, it is located in the borders of Ondo and Edo states, raising the fear of possible importation of electoral mercenaries from neighbouring Edo state. Two, the substitution of EyitayoJegede as PDP candidate has been a major issue in the area. Three, some localities in the areas are reputed for violence such asIgbeyin-Adun and Igbekun in Ijagba community. It is said to be thecentre for political thugs in the area. Little wonder that responses to whether the election in the area would be peaceful or not were not impressive. Specifically, 4 (20%) and 7 (35%) of respondents strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election would be peaceful, making a total of 55%. However, 2 (10%), 4 (20%) and 3 (15%) were undecided, strongly disagreed and agreed respectively.

Category: Red

Owo
Respondents were of the view that Owo is generally peaceful and expect the governorship election to be peaceful. However, being the country home of RotimiAkeredolu, the APC candidate, it has been a beehive of heightened political activities, which require adequate attention. Be that as it may, respondents were generally of the view that the election would be peaceful with 13 (65%) and 5 (25%) strongly agreeing and agreeing respectively. This makes a total of 90%. Only 2 (10%) were undecided.

Category: Green

Map and Table showing different colours here

D. Q1 vs Q70:On the Whole, How Do You think that the Election Will Go?

In an attempt to establish the validity and reliability of the responses to Q1 on whether the election would be peaceful or not, we evaluate responses to Q70, which was deliberately included to measure the level of consistency in respondents’ perceptions.

Interestingly, we found synergy for the most part in the responses to the two questions.. To be specific, responses to the two questions were either the same or almost the same in 13 of the 18 LGAs, leading to the same classification/categorization in those LGAs as either: Green, Amber or Red. These LGAs are Akoko North East, Akoko South East, Akoko South West, Akure North, Akure South, Idanre, Ilaje, Ile Oluji, Irele, Odigbo, Ondo East, Ondo West, Ose.

However, there were notable exceptions in the remaining 5 LGAs, some of which can be explained. These are Akoko North West, EseOdo, Ifedore, Okitipupa and Owo. In Akoko North West, for example, 77.6% of respondents responded positively to the prospect of peaceful election in the area (Q1). Surprisingly, only 25% agreed that overall the election would be peaceful. The variation may not be unconnected to the fact that half (50%) of the respondents were undecided in their responses to the question, thus the movement from Amber (Q1) to Red (Q70). In EseOdo, the variation was positive, shifting from 88.8% to 94.4% (Amber to Green).In Ifedore, there was a downward slide of 15% from 60% to 45% (Amber to Red). Okitipupaslide from Green (85%) toAmber(68.4%). Ondo West maintained its classification as Red (41%) but with an extremely outrageous variation (5.9%). The reason for this was that the majority of respondents, specifically 13 (72.2%) were undecided in their responses. So some reasonable degree of consistency could be said to exist in the responses to the two questions. This finding underscores the reliability of this report.


E. Comparison with Expert Data

At the aggregate level, there exists considerable synergy between responses of the general public and the experts’. For the experts, 113 (33.6%) and 140 (41.7%) strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election would be peaceful across the state. This amounts to 253 (76.2%) of positive response. 20 (6.0%) were undecided, while 16 (4.8%) strongly disagreed. This is in agreement with the findings from the general public where 126 (36%) and 144 (41.1%) strongly agreed and agreed respectively that the election would be peaceful, with a total of 270 (77.1%).

Though not exactly the same when compared to the other general question (Q1), yet some degree of synergy was also observed in Q70 where 73 (22%) and 133 (39.6%) were of the view that the election in the state would be very peaceful and peaceful respectively, making a total of 206 (61%). This is also is consonance with date from the general public where 85 (24.3%) and 137 (39.1%) were of the view that the election would be very peaceful and peaceful respectively, with a combined positive response of 222 (63%).

SYNTHESIS OF KEY RISK FACTORS

From our findings, a number of election risk factors could trigger electoral violence unless urgent steps are taken to mitigate them. These include:
Ø  A history of electoral violence and activities of thugs:Ondo state has a history of electoral violence, most notably the 1983 post-election violence -the AdekunleAjasin/Omoboriowo saga- which a public commentator described as the ‘house of war’.The activities of various violent political gangs across the state, most notably the dreaded Ade Basket Boys with stronghold in Akure and subsidiaries across the state and Orita Fogo Boys predominantly in the Akungba axis, also constitute serious security threats;

Ø  The activities of political parties: This is very central as both experts and the general public were unanimous in this respect. Specifically, 236 (71.7% and 272 (81.3%) of experts and general public respectively either strongly agreed or agreed that the activities of political parties could undermine the electoral process and cause violence. Some of the underlined factors by experts include contentious party primaries, godfatherism and undue influence of money, among others. The crisis rocking the PDP and APC over the conduct of their primaries lends credence to this position.

Ø  The role and activities of INEC: A total of 182 (55.1%) expert respondents and 244 (68.7%) general public respondents either strongly agreed or agreed that INEC is pivotal to the peacefulness of the election. Issues such as early deployment of INEC staff and materials, impartiality, voter education, issuance of PVCs, making card readers function and other logistics issues were identified as vital issues whose handling could make or mar the election.

Ø  The role and activities of security agencies: The role of security agencies was also identified as pivotal to peaceful election. 188 (57.8%) of experts and 242 (69.3%) either strongly agreed or agreed that unless security agents display exemplary professionalism, non-partisanship, the election could lead to violence. Experts also alluded to the need to pay good attention to the welfare need of security agents if they must measure up to expectations.

Ø  Judicial Institutions: The judiciary was also identified as an important institution whose conduct could make or mar the election. 235 (68.7%) of the general public and 159 (48.5%) of experts either strongly agreed or agreed about the salience of the judiciary. Key variables identified by experts include timely and impartial dispatch of pre-election cases brought before the court, non-partisanship and the phenomenon of corruption, among others. The judicial saga over the PDP candidacy would appear to lend credence to this position. When the level of trust in the judiciary is poor, people may be tempted to resort to self-help strategies.

Ø  The Media: Though the media were identified by 164 (50.2%) of experts and 239 (68.6%) of the general public as constituting potential source of threats that could instigate violence, especially when they fail to operate within their ethical and legal codes,it would appear that so far so good some measure of moderation has been observed with limited or no recourse to hate and inciting speech. It will be useful if this trend can be maintained throughout the electoral cycle.

Ø  Traditional institutions: Traditional rulers are ordinarily the custodians of traditional customs, traditions and values. However, most of them appear to have been contaminated by politics. Little wonder that 170 (52.1%) of experts and 219 (64%) of the general public considered them as potential source of violence during the election.

Ø  Others: many other factors identified by experts of constituting risk factors in the election include the following:

a)      Geographical terrain:
b)      Non-adherence to  process and procedures
c)      Funding of election
d)     Problem with payment of election workers
e)      Problem associated with recruitment of adhoc INEC staff
f)       Power of incumbency
g)      Proliferation of small arms and light weapon
h)      Corruption among INEC officials
i)        Reliability of election equipment
j)        Inadequate training and conduct of security agents
k)      Strong opposition
l)        Political interference with the work of INEC
m)    Involvement of informal policing groups
Though therewere variations in the degree of responses to these questions from one LGA to the other, the approval rating to these questions were not lower than 50% across the LGAs. This further lends credence to the findings presented in this report.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION


All other things being equal, the Ondo State governorship election will hold 26 November, 2016. At the aggregate level, the data presented in this report appear to suggest that the election will generally be peaceful. This much was revealed from the date generated from both experts and the general public. However, when disaggregated on LGA by LGA, notable convergences and divergences were obvious. With the data, we have classified the LGAs base on the perceived degree of peacefulness of violent potential of the election in a given area. It is, however, important to note that noting is cast in stone. The mere fact that an area is categorized as GREEN does not imply that the election in the areas will automatically be violence-free and vice versa. Much depends on proactive measures taken to mitigate identified risk factors across the various LGAs of the state.
Against the background of the following, the following recommendations are considered imperative:.

 

Ø  There is need for all institutions connected with the administration of the election to embark on confidence building with all political stakeholders in the election, most notably the ruling and opposition parties, civil society organizations and the people at large.
Ø  In particular, INEC and security agencies should meet periodically with these actors to assure them of their neutrality, impartiality, willingness and ability to act in a way that will ensure free, fair and credible election;
Ø  There is need for timely distribution of election materials and personnel to ensure timely commencement of voting across the state. This is, however, much more crucial for the riverine areas where the challenges of transportation seem to be more entrenched;
Ø  Notable potential flash points during the election should be given more security protection, together with more election observers, in such a way that no ballot station will be left uncovered;
Ø  Activities of notable political thugs/gangs such as the Ade Basket Boys and the Orita Fogo Boys should be curtailed;
Ø  There is need for demilitarization of the mind through social mobilization of the people on the need to shun violence during and after the election. This is a task for political parties, INEC, civil society organizations, mass media and the generality of the people;
Ø  All adhoc election administrators should be adequately trained and monitored to ensure compliance with established rules and procedures;
Ø  All political parties should be encouraged to adhere to the peace agreement they have signed, stating their commitment to eschew violence and work peacefully during and after the election;
Ø  The judiciary should be up and doing in dispatching all election cases brought before it timely and impartially;

















Appendixes 1
Responses to Q1. Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful?                                                                                                              
Local Government Area
Frequency
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative Percent
Akoko North East
Valid
Strongly Agree
8
40.0
40.0
40.0
Agree
12
60.0
60.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

Akoko North West
Valid
Strongly Agree
8
44.4
44.4
44.4
Agree
6
33.3
33.3
77.8
Undecided
4
22.2
22.2
100.0
Total
18
100.0
100.0

Akoko South East
Valid
Strongly Agree
11
61.1
61.1
61.1
Agree
6
33.3
33.3
94.4
Undecided
1
5.6
5.6
100.0
Total
18
100.0
100.0

AKOKO SOUTH WEST
Valid
Strongly Agree
13
65.0
65.0
65.0
Agree
4
20.0
20.0
85.0
Undecided
1
5.0
5.0
90.0
Disagree
1
5.0
5.0
95.0
Strongly Disagree
1
5.0
5.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

Akure North
Valid
Strongly Agree
4
20.0
20.0
20.0
Agree
8
40.0
40.0
60.0
Undecided
7
35.0
35.0
95.0
Disagree
1
5.0
5.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

Akure South
Valid
Strongly Agree
5
25.0
25.0
25.0
Agree
7
35.0
35.0
60.0
Undecided
4
20.0
20.0
80.0
Disagree
2
10.0
10.0
90.0
Strongly Disagree
2
10.0
10.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

Ese-Odo
Valid
Strongly Agree
8
44.4
44.4
44.4
Agree
8
44.4
44.4
88.9
Undecided
1
5.6
5.6
94.4
Disagree
1
5.6
5.6
100.0
Total
18
100.0
100.0

IDANRE
Valid
Strongly Agree
10
50.0
50.0
50.0
Agree
7
35.0
35.0
85.0
Disagree
2
10.0
10.0
95.0
Strongly Disagree
1
5.0
5.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

Ifedore
Valid
Strongly Agree
8
40.0
40.0
40.0
Agree
4
20.0
20.0
60.0
Undecided
3
15.0
15.0
75.0
Disagree
2
10.0
10.0
85.0
Strongly Disagree
3
15.0
15.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

ILAJE
Valid
Strongly Agree
8
42.1
42.1
42.1
Agree
10
52.6
52.6
94.7
Disagree
1
5.3
5.3
100.0
Total
19
100.0
100.0

Ile- oluji/Okeigbo
Valid
Agree
14
70.0
73.7
73.7
Undecided
1
5.0
5.3
78.9
Disagree
2
10.0
10.5
89.5
Strongly Disagree
2
10.0
10.5
100.0
Total
19
95.0
100.0

Missing
System
1
5.0


Total
20
100.0


Irele
Valid
Strongly Agree
5
25.0
26.3
26.3
Agree
13
65.0
68.4
94.7
Undecided
1
5.0
5.3
100.0
Total
19
95.0
100.0

Missing
System
1
5.0


Total
20
100.0


ODIGBO
Valid
Strongly Agree
7
36.8
36.8
36.8
Agree
12
63.2
63.2
100.0
Total
19
100.0
100.0

OKITIPUPA
Valid
Strongly Agree
9
45.0
45.0
45.0
Agree
8
40.0
40.0
85.0
Undecided
3
15.0
15.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

Ondo East
Valid
Strongly Agree
3
15.0
15.0
15.0
Agree
6
30.0
30.0
45.0
Undecided
4
20.0
20.0
65.0
Disagree
3
15.0
15.0
80.0
Strongly Disagree
4
20.0
20.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

ONDO WEST
Valid
Strongly Agree
2
11.1
11.1
11.1
Agree
7
38.9
38.9
50.0
Undecided
3
16.7
16.7
66.7
Disagree
4
22.2
22.2
88.9
Strongly Disagree
2
11.1
11.1
100.0
Total
18
100.0
100.0

Ose
Valid
Strongly Agree
4
20.0
20.0
20.0
Agree
7
35.0
35.0
55.0
Undecided
2
10.0
10.0
65.0
Disagree
3
15.0
15.0
80.0
Strongly Disagree
4
20.0
20.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

OWO
Valid
Strongly Agree
13
65.0
65.0
65.0
Agree
5
25.0
25.0
90.0
Undecided
2
10.0
10.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0



Appendix 2:
Q70. On the whole, how do you think that this election will go?
Local Government Area
Frequency
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative Percent
Akoko North East
Valid
VeryPeaceful
9
45.0
47.4
47.4
Peaceful
8
40.0
42.1
89.5
Undecided
2
10.0
10.5
100.0
Total
19
95.0
100.0

Missing
System
1
5.0


Total
20
100.0


Akoko North West
Valid
VeryPeaceful
1
5.6
6.2
6.2
Peaceful
3
16.7
18.8
25.0
Undecided
8
44.4
50.0
75.0
Violent
3
16.7
18.8
93.8
Very Violent
1
5.6
6.2
100.0
Total
16
88.9
100.0

Missing
System
2
11.1


Total
18
100.0


Akoko South East
Valid
VeryPeaceful
13
72.2
72.2
72.2
Peaceful
4
22.2
22.2
94.4
Undecided
1
5.6
5.6
100.0
Total
18
100.0
100.0

AKOKO SOUTH WEST
Valid
VeryPeaceful
4
20.0
20.0
20.0
Peaceful
12
60.0
60.0
80.0
Undecided
4
20.0
20.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

Akure North
Valid
VeryPeaceful
2
10.0
10.0
10.0
Peaceful
9
45.0
45.0
55.0
Undecided
8
40.0
40.0
95.0
Violent
1
5.0
5.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

Akure South
Valid
VeryPeaceful
5
25.0
25.0
25.0
Peaceful
7
35.0
35.0
60.0
Undecided
4
20.0
20.0
80.0
Violent
2
10.0
10.0
90.0
Very Violent
2
10.0
10.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

Ese-Odo
Valid
VeryPeaceful
6
33.3
33.3
33.3
Peaceful
11
61.1
61.1
94.4
Undecided
1
5.6
5.6
100.0
Total
18
100.0
100.0

IDANRE
Valid
VeryPeaceful
8
40.0
42.1
42.1
Peaceful
6
30.0
31.6
73.7
Undecided
1
5.0
5.3
78.9
Violent
2
10.0
10.5
89.5
Very Violent
2
10.0
10.5
100.0
Total
19
95.0
100.0

Missing
System
1
5.0


Total
20
100.0


Ifedore
Valid
VeryPeaceful
4
20.0
20.0
20.0
Peaceful
5
25.0
25.0
45.0
Undecided
5
25.0
25.0
70.0
Violent
2
10.0
10.0
80.0
Very Violent
4
20.0
20.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

ILAJE
Valid
VeryPeaceful
5
26.3
26.3
26.3
Peaceful
12
63.2
63.2
89.5
Undecided
1
5.3
5.3
94.7
Violent
1
5.3
5.3
100.0
Total
19
100.0
100.0

Ile- oluji/Okeigbo
Valid
VeryPeaceful
1
5.0
5.0
5.0
Peaceful
12
60.0
60.0
65.0
Undecided
1
5.0
5.0
70.0
Violent
2
10.0
10.0
80.0
Very Violent
4
20.0
20.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

Irele
Valid
VeryPeaceful
5
25.0
29.4
29.4
Peaceful
10
50.0
58.8
88.2
Undecided
2
10.0
11.8
100.0
Total
17
85.0
100.0

Missing
System
3
15.0


Total
20
100.0


ODIGBO
Valid
VeryPeaceful
3
15.8
16.7
16.7
Peaceful
10
52.6
55.6
72.2
Undecided
3
15.8
16.7
88.9
Violent
1
5.3
5.6
94.4
Very Violent
1
5.3
5.6
100.0
Total
18
94.7
100.0

Missing
System
1
5.3


Total
19
100.0


OKITIPUPA
Valid
VeryPeaceful
6
30.0
31.6
31.6
Peaceful
7
35.0
36.8
68.4
Undecided
5
25.0
26.3
94.7
Violent
1
5.0
5.3
100.0
Total
19
95.0
100.0

Missing
System
1
5.0


Total
20
100.0


Ondo East
Valid
VeryPeaceful
4
20.0
20.0
20.0
Peaceful
5
25.0
25.0
45.0
Undecided
6
30.0
30.0
75.0
Violent
4
20.0
20.0
95.0
Very Violent
1
5.0
5.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

ONDO WEST
Valid
Peaceful
1
5.6
5.9
5.9
Undecided
13
72.2
76.5
82.4
Violent
3
16.7
17.6
100.0
Total
17
94.4
100.0

Missing
System
1
5.6


Total
18
100.0


Ose
Valid
VeryPeaceful
1
5.0
5.0
5.0
Peaceful
7
35.0
35.0
40.0
Undecided
7
35.0
35.0
75.0
Violent
4
20.0
20.0
95.0
Very Violent
1
5.0
5.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0

OWO
Valid
VeryPeaceful
8
40.0
40.0
40.0
Peaceful
8
40.0
40.0
80.0
Undecided
4
20.0
20.0
100.0
Total
20
100.0
100.0





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