Monday, 29 August 2011

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS OF PUBLIC OPINION POLL ON BOKO HARAM AND ONE TERM PRESIDENCY CONDUCTED BY ALLIANCE CREDIBLE ELECTIONS AND CLEEN FOUNDATION



Introduction
The aim of the survey was to obtain information regarding the views of Nigerians on two major issues that are trending in the media and government circles. These are:
·        Boko Haram and government response to it:
·        Six-year one term presidency being promoted by the president and people around him.

The opinion poll was conducted between August 10 - 16, 2011 via telephone interviews of 1002 respondents. The respondents were Nigerians who are 18 years and above living in all parts of the country. The telephone numbers were randomly selected from a pool of numbers, with care to ensure the six geo-political zones were represented. The survey was conducted in English, Pidgin, Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba.


Highlight of Findings  
The survey questionnaire was divided between two major subjects of the poll: Boko Haram and Six year one-term presidents. On Boko Haram, the respondents were asked questions about their awareness of attacks by Boko Haram; assessment of how well the security agencies were handling the attacks; the least performing agencies in responding to the threats; support for deployment of soldiers to Borno; handling of the attacks by security agencies; and suggestions for addressing Boko Haram uprising.

On one term presidency, the respondents were asked about their awareness of proposed constitutional amendment to enable a six year one-term presidency; whether one term presidency should be a priority of President Jonathan's administration; and priority areas the administration should pay attention to.

FINDINGS ON BOKO HARAM
Awareness of Boko Haram's attacks:
Slightly more than 4 out of every 5 respondents were aware of Boko Haram's attacks (82%). More men (86%) than women (77%) were aware. People in the northern zones of the country were more aware than the south, with Northcentral leading with slightly more that 9 out of every 10 respondents being aware (91%).

Support for Deployment of soldiers:
Overwhelming percentage of the respondents supported deployment of soldiers to respond to Boko Haram. Slightly less than one out of every 10 respondents were neither supportive nor opposed, while 5% were opposed.

Handling of Boko Haram by Security Agencies
Slightly more than one half of those interviewed felt security agencies were handling the insurgency well (54%). 26% were neutral, while one in five respondents said they were doing badly.  When the data were disaggregated by zones slightly less than one-half of the respondents in the Southwest (48%), Northwest (49%) and South-south (49%) felt the agencies were doing well; while those in the southeast, northeast and north-central scored them over 60%.

Ineffective security agency in handling Boko Haram:
On the agencies that were least effective in responding to Boko Haram, majority of the respondents pointed at the police (53%), followed by 20% who fingered all the agencies.

 Support for dialogue with Boko Haram
When asked what should be done about Boko Haram, majority of the respondents supported dialogue 58%. When disaggregated by zones, the highest level of support came from Northeast where 4 out of every 5 respondents (80%) voted for dialogue followed by Northwest with 62%. The region with the least support for dialogue with Boko Haram is southeast where only 35% supported dialogue, followed by south-south with 51%

FINDINGS ON ONE TERM PRESIDENCY

Awareness of the Proposed Constitutional Amendment

The survey showed that 59% of the respondents were aware of the proposed constitutional amendment of a single six-year tenure for elected officials. A high proportion of respondents (41%) were unaware, which may be a reflection of the level of enlightenment of the general population on current political developments.  Women were more aware 60% than men 57%. Zonally, awareness was highest in Northwest 71%, followed by north-central with 63% and lowest in the southeast 41% and northeast 47%.

Should single term Presidency be a priority for Jonathan’s administration
The majority (78%) said that the amendment should not be a priority for the Jonathan administration. Though, as many as 22% said it should be a priority.

If yes, Why?
Respondents who said the amendment should be a priority gave reasons for their support. The main reason is the belief that the amendment was necessary for development (63%). Followed by stability and continuity (25%); reduce corruption 6% and reduce expenses (5%).

If no, what should be priority?

Respondents who said no, sugested the following priorities:

S/N
Priority
Percentage
1
Job creation
33%
2
Electricity/infrastructure
26%
3
Security
16%
4
Education/health
9%
5
Fight corruption
5%
6
Economy
3%

 Conclusion

The poll shows a high level of awareness among respondents about Boko Haram and proposed constitutional amendment of a single six-year tenure for elected officials.
On Boko Haram, majority of the respondents support the deployment of soldiers to Maiduguri to help provide security and think the police are not doing enough.

Majority recommends dialogue as the preferred method of dealing with the insurgents. Other suggestions they made for improving security in the region include increasing the level of security and intelligence gathering, providing jobs for members of the group, as well as offering amnesty to members, increase the capacity of law enforcement and security agencies among others.

On single term presidency, majority of the respondents (78%) were of the view that the proposal should not be a priority now and suggested job creation, infrastructure, security education/health in that other as issues the government should worry about the most.

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