Political activities are
currently at their feverish peak. Campaigns are on-going and political parties are
conducting their primary elections and submitting candidates’ names to the
Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. At the presidential level, the
polls mirror the 2011 elections with General Muhammadu Buhari who is now standing
for the All Progressives Congress (APC) being the lead challenger while
President Goodluck Jonathan is the candidate of the ruling People’s Democratic
Party (PDP).
The conduct of primaries by the
two main political parties, the APC and the PDP is likely to be a major
underlying factor on which to assess threats to the elections in February 2015.
Though the party primaries were conducted without known records of serious
violence by various political parties, they were however not without incidents
such as alleged attempts to favour one aspirant over the other leading to staged
“walk-outs” from the venue of the primaries. There were allegations of marked
irregularities especially in the gubernatorial primaries in favour of some
candidates. Party primaries for four (Adamawa, Borno, Yobe and Taraba) out of
the six states in the North East geopolitical zone were held in Abuja for security
concerns. The management of the grievances for those who lost in these
primaries is crucial for peaceful elections in general.
The continuous advancement and
sophistication of the Boko Haram group has been used by politicians to further
heat up the polity and there are strong concerns regarding the ability of
displaced persons to vote in the elections. To allay these fears, the Chief of
Defense Staff, Alex Badeh, on Wednesday 17th December 2014 in Aso
Villa assured Nigerians that elections will hold in all parts of the country in
spite the activities of the insurgents.
INEC
has continued with the distribution of permanent Voters Card PVC and Continuous
Voters Registration. In Niger
state, public holiday was declared on the 19th December to enable
state public servants collect their PVCs.
In Niger,
a newspaper report says the former military President, Ibrahim Babangida, a former
Head of State General Abdulsalami Abubakar and the Niger state Governor Mu’azu
Babangida Aliyu were yet to get their permanent voter cards as at the time of
this report. Except urgent measures are taken, Nigerians who are unable to
collect their voters card might become resentful against the system during
elections. Another worrisome situation and a potential source of conflict are
the utterances of the political class that appears to be inciting the public on
issue.
While political parties are
raising money in billions largely from serving state governors, 22 states were allegedly
unable to pay the salaries of civil servants before the Christmas break. There
was an alleged threat by the Association of Senior Civil Servants of Nigeria
(ASCSN) to showdown
with federal government over its failure in paying salaries of those working in
the nation’s public service for three months. Although the Federal government
has denied owning civil servants but workers strike at this point in time could
have security implications. The current austerity measure by the Federal government
as a result of dwindling oil price has come under huge criticisms by Nigerians
and might set the tone for possible protest that might also threaten peace
ahead of the elections. Perhaps most vehement of these threats is the incessant
attacks on villages; on two occasions, Yobe State capital (Damaturu) came under
attack and suicide bombers by insurgent in different states of the north east.
INEC has continued with the
distribution of the Permanent Voters Cards (PVC) and continuous voters’
registration (CVR) across the country following the schedule for distribution
which was earlier made public by the Commission. INEC has reported to the
public that it has distributed 71.35 per cent of the 54,341,610 number of
registered voters across the country by December. However, Nigerians have
started questioning the total figure of registered voters because the current
figure is estimated to be far less than the figure expected on the register
after earlier verification and cleaning processes (AFIS) by INEC. INEC has said
previously that after AFIS there were 70,383,427 on the Electoral Register, the
present figures indicate 54m on the electoral register.
Particularly in the North West, there are four major threats to
security in the region within the next few weeks;
I.
Inciting
and hate related campaign speeches, particularly at the lower level.
II.
Tardiness
of INEC in the distribution of PVCs and the conduct of elections.
III.
Increasing
threats of violence by politicians and youth groups
IV.
Partisanship
of security agencies.
The party primaries have generated internal ill-feelings
among contenders. While some of these ill-feelings have been properly managed
in some cases, it is not the case in many others. In PDP, the situation in
Jigawa is still not looking good as some of the major contenders for
governorship are feeling short changed and there have not been any serious conciliatory
efforts by the winning side; Similar situation applies in Sokoto, Katsina,
Zamfara and Kebbi state. As politicians become desperate they begin to use foul
language that could incite people. The primary elections also reveal lack of
internal democracy among major political parties; “I think we should expect a
violent election if things are not done properly.” was how one interviewee
concluded.
The process of PVC distribution has been fraught with
enormous logistics problems and missing data/names. There are allegations of
deliberate effort to disenfranchise people, particularly in Kano and Sokoto states. The whole situation is already creating doubt
on the capacity of INEC to conduct credible elections. This could be a major
issue during elections, as people without PVC could insist on voting with their
temporary cards.
In the reporting period,
political parties concluded their candidates’ nomination processes on December
11. It would be recalled that INEC timetable had scheduled the conduct of party
primaries for the window period of October 2 – December 11. Campaigns have also
started in earnest. Many civil society groups and organisations have also been
recruiting, training and deploying observers to track some aspects of the
electoral processes such as campaign finance, electoral violence and media.
Trainings are also being conducted for election observers while many CSOs have
also scaled up their voter education and sensitization programmes.
In Borno State,
dates for the registration and issuance of the PVCs were shifted twice most
likely due to security concerns. INEC’s lack of clarity on this issue is
already being interpreted especially in Borno as a sign of its unwillingness to
hold election in the state. However, INEC has sets up a Task Force on internally
displaced persons (IDPs) voting.
The political parties lack
mechanisms to check irrational defection and this can be a security threat in a
democracy. The primary elections and actions of politicians clearly show
desperation to win the election by every means. This could be inimical to
peaceful, transparent and credible elections.
As for INEC and the security
agencies, much is needed to reassure citizens of the security of the elections.
INEC is not telling Nigerians yet, whether insensitive materials are being
moved from Abuja
to the states or not. This could be received and interpreted by members of the
public in different ways that can undermine peace either during or after
elections.
With the dispute over PDP
presidential nomination form being contested by a female aspirant Professor
Akasoba Zainab Duke-Abiola and others gone silent, Professor Remi Sonaiya of
the KOWA party remains the only female presidential candidate for the upcoming
elections. The extent she would go in the election is likely to be predictable
even as the elections approaches.
In the North East, as in the
other zones, the participation of women in politics is low but the region is
likely to make history with the emergence of Senator Aisha Jummai Alhassan as
the gubernatorial aspirant of the APC in Taraba. Other notable female aspirants
vying for elective posts are Hajiya Aisha Ahmed (PDM) candidate for senate of
the Adamawa Central senatorial zone and Dr (Mrs) Asabe Vilita Bashir (APC,
Borno) aspiring for the membership of Gwoza/Chibok constituency in the Federal
House of Representatives. In Adamawa
State, APC screening
committee disqualified a female gubernatorial aspirant for not been able to
provide her tax clearance and the required number of nominators.
The uncertain security
situation is also becoming a major threat to women’s political participation.
Some of the violence is also gender specific and difficult to contain in some
deeply patriarchal societies. In response to the gender dimension of some of
the security issues in Kano
state for instance, the government has recruited 402 female corporate security
personnel, who graduated from the State Corporate Security Training Institute.
The appointees are posted to different government formations including schools
and other government agencies.
In Akwa Ibom State, there is wide awareness about
value of women participation in the elections. In fact, many of those who have
relocated from places they originally registered with INEC, who are now seeking
transfer are predominantly women, according to one INEC official interviewed
for this report. The irony of the state is the back seat position women in Akwa
Ibom has taken. No woman contested for political party ticket for positions at
the state and national levels.
In Ogun and Lagos states, APC nominated women as the
running mates of their gubernatorial candidates. Senator Oluremi Tinubu and
House Majority Leader, Mulikat Akande Adeola both won the nomination of their
political parties. Actress Funke Adesiyan made history as one of the two
artistes who got their party nomination.
In the South East, Senator Chris
Anyanwu, representing Imo East senatorial district has indicated interest for
the governorship position in Imo state. Erhiatake Ibori, daughter of the former
governor of Delta
State, James Ibori who is
running for a seat in the Delta State House of Assembly emerged one of the
winners of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) primaries for the 2015 state
House of Assembly election.
There are indications that the
Nigerian military together with youth vigilantes and other volunteer groups
have made advances in counter-insurgency operations that have put the Islamist
group Boko Haram on the defensive in some parts of the region. Gombi, Maiha and
Mubi towns in Adamawa have been reclaimed from the insurgents but the conduct
of any elections in these areas is still under probability given the history of
Boko Haram’s vengeance and daring capacity for counter attack on the one hand
and the group’s avowed penchant for the disruption of the democratic process.
On December 1, Damaturu and Maiduguri
were attacked almost simultaneously, the latter by two female suicide bombers
and the former by male fighters in military uniform. The incident in Maiduguri
killed five people in the city’s crowded Monday Market which occurred barely a
week after a deadly attack by two suicide bombers in the same market that
killed 78 people. The daring attack on Damaturu was targeted at gaining control
of the Yobe State Government House that would have expanded the territory of Boko Haram’s ‘Islamic Caliphate’. These
incidents no doubt pose considerable threats to the coming elections in February
2015.
In the North
West, Kaduna has continued to
experience increasing cases of violence especially in southern Kaduna. As the electoral politics heightens,
some of the ethno-religious contentions in the state will continue to boil. The
zone has also been affected by Boko Haram insurgency, especially in Kaduna, Kano,
Katsina and Sokoto. Zamfara and Katsina have also been experiencing increasing
cases of cattle rustling and rural banditry resulting in wanton destruction of
lives and property.
In Kano,
Kaduna, Katsina
with the history of youth militancy, particularly the yan’daba, electoral
politics is always an opportunity to perpetrate violence on behalf of their
principals. The cases of raids and mass killings by bandits in southern Kaduna are also
attracting non state security response from the communities. Militant youths
called Area boys are major players in electoral politics and security in Sokoto
state.
If the warning from the NOA
that agents of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) are scouting to
recruit Nigerian youths as fighters is anything to go by, the intelligence
community must be vigilant and guard against this.
Within the South-South region,
ex-militants have remained very visible in the political space in Rivers state,
especially as local power brokers and security contractors. Within the period
under review, Ateke Tom has remained very influential, calling the shots when
it comes to local politics. Additionally, Ex-militant Joshua from Ekeremor play
violent role as Lokpobiri Heineken seeks a third term in the National Assembly.
Youths loyal to Heineken, armed with guns and axe attacked the PDP office in
Yenegoa, Bayelsa state on December 7 when the party primary elections was held,
however, they were successfully repelled by the police. The recurrent rise in
piracy in the Niger Delta is also worrisome. Gunmen suspected to be pirates
were alleged to have attacked and killed three soldiers of the Joint Task
Force, JTF, and Operation Pulo Shield in the Nembe axis of Bayelsa. This event
has raised the worries of people living in riverine areas about the possibility
of conducting elections in their communities in the face of increasing piracy
within the region.
Ex-militant Tompolo’s entry
into the politics of Delta state as power broker at the gubernatorial level
seems to have created suspicion among the Itsekiri in Warri South-West Local
Government Area. The agreement, secured through Governor Oduaghan’s efforts
last year, prescribes mutual access to opportunities between the Ijaw, Tompolo’s
ethnic group, and the Itsekiri. Ethnic groups have had violent conflictive
relationships and a history of war. As minority, the Ijaw have faced severe
difficulty securing political positions within the local government and the
state. Tompolo is reported to have been involved in making politicians
including the flag bearer for the governorship elections next year. This feat
is in part the result of wealth Tompolo has acquired from his company’s
maritime security contract with the Federal Government. Recent reports of his
procurement of warships for that job have been criticized by groups in Itsekiri
who feel threatened that the warship could be used to fight them in the future.
In Delta state, Warri and Bomadi are places to watch closely. These are places
of origin of Governor Oduaghan and Manager respectively; both have strong
support of top ex-militants.
Meanwhile, the tension between
the Itsekiri and Tompolo is still very high and might escalate. Koko, an
Itsekiri socio-cultural group, Iwere Peoples Congress, IPC, has warned the
former militant leader, Chief Government Ekpemukpolo, a.k.a, Tompolo, to stop
threatening and harassing innocent prominent Itsekiri people within and outside
the state. This warning was contained in a statement released by the group on
Tuesday 9th December 2014 by its President General, Prince Ishola
Ekwejunor-Etchie.
Secret cult activities remain
integral to the politics of Edo state. No
fewer than 10 persons were killed during an attack in Benin City just before the Christmas. This
attack might trigger reprisals as one of those killed is a leader of the Odua
Peoples Congress (OPC). Also, a 33 year old father of three, and 12 others were
killed in inter cult rivalry. Experience shows that members of such groups are
disposed to recruitment by politicians for the purpose of rigging elections.
Edo South Senatorial District remains an area to watch for possible violence
despite seeming APC youths’ peaceful or favourable outlook with President Jonathan
when it comes to the presidential elections next year. Also, three female
police officers who went to make an arrest at Oregbeni quarters in Ikpoba-Okha
Local Government Area of Edo were beaten and stripped naked. Furthermore, the
activities of cult groups, robbers and kidnappers in the state remain most
disturbing.
Thugs invaded INEC center in Abeokuta, Ogun State with guns and other weapons during the
continuous voter Registration exercise in St Mary African Church School,
Oke-Efon, Abeokuta.
10 persons have sustained injuries as a result. The high number of unemployed
youths is worrisome as they remain ready recruits for politicians who want to
perpetuate themselves in power by all means. While attention has been focused
on the violence in the North East, it is worrisome that youth driven violence is
capable of happening in any other part of the country for many factors namely;
proliferation of small and light weapon, drugs, poverty, ignorance, illiteracy,
provocative statements, among others.
As a result of the rising level
of insurgency in the North East, there has been a corresponding increase in the
number of internally displaced persons spread across the affected states but
especially in Borno and Adamawa. At present, more than half of Borno’s
population has been displaced; the corresponding estimate for Adamawa State
is one-third, most of whom are living in its capital, Yola. National Emergency
Management Agency (NEMA) in December reported that it has officially registered
over 850,00 IDPs in the three states of Borno, Bauchi and Yobe but this figure
has been disputed as grossly lower than the actual figure. Two issues arise
from the bourgeoning presence of IDPs in the region. The heavy caseload in
these areas no doubt poses security risks while the IDPs themselves are likely
to miss out on the elections.
Though three states are
currently facing insurgent attacks, the worst hit is Borno. Nearly two million displaced
persons, among them eligible voters from over 20 out of the 27 Local Government
Areas of Borno State are now taking refuge in Maiduguri.
While the number of eligible voters is not known, elections may not hold in
affected councils, namely; Bama, Askira/Uba, Gwoza, Konduga, Chibok, Damboa,
Dikwa, Ngala, Abadam, Marte, Mafa, Kukawa and Kala/Balge. Using Borno State
as a case study for other states in the North East under Boko Haram attacks,
according to the 2006 census, the total population figure in the state was
4,171,104. The breakdown of the aggregated of the figures in the affected LGAs
are Bama 270119, Askira/Uba 143313, Gwoza 276568, Konduga 157322, Chibok 66333,
Damboa 233200, Dikwa 105042, Ngala 236498, Abadam 100065, Marte 129409, Mafa
103600, Kukawa 203343 and Kala/Balge 60834. The total population of all these
affected LGAs is 2,085,646 but when deducted from the total of Borno population
(4,171,104), 2,085,458 will be left. In other words, using the 2006 population,
little above 50% of the state population are currently either displaced or held
down by Boko Haram, While this may not be an exact way to determine eligible
voters in the state, one thing is obvious, many Borno citizens just like
Adamawa and Yobe, willing to vote might not be able to do so owing to
displacement occasioned by violence in the state.
There is the increasing
presence of internally displaced persons in the region that has added to the
existing burden especially in Borno. The evacuation of hundreds of Borno
refugees stranded in Cameroun
into the state capital Maiduguri
recently is a case in point. While a case has been made for the provision of
voting centres for the internally displaced persons living in camps at the
National Assembly, recent developments also indicate that these IDP camps may
be unsafe. Additionally, security agencies intercepted a suspected suicide
bomber who tried to gain entry into one of the IDP camps in Maiduguri. The National Emergency Management
Agency (NEMA) has revealed that due to acts of terror especially in the
North-east region, over 850,000 persons have been internally displaced.
To address the right of the
IDPs to vote, the Senate on Tuesday 16th December 2014 directed the
Committee on Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to liaise with
INEC to establish special polling units for internally displaced persons (IDPs)
victims of insurgency in the North-East. In response, the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) raised a Task Force on how to get Internally
Displaced Persons (IDPs) to vote in the forthcoming General Election.
While the effort of INEC is
commendable, this preparation might be coming too late and the deliberation
could fail. Also worrisome is the fact that the largest proportion of displaced
don’t leave in IDP camps and the use of only IDP camps for IDPs to vote might
at the end of the day amount to negligible vote. This is having in mind that
there are no insufficient IDP camps in this region and most of them are either
poor managed, capable of posing disease outbreak or are not own by government.
In PDP states, following the
bequeathing of state party structure to the seating governors, majority of the
returning state house of assembly members are those loyal to their governors. Activities
in the State Houses of Assembly are reflecting some of the tensions in the political
climate as February 2015 approaches. Also, provocative statements by senior
party members were threatening. These inciting statements were however made
alike by the two contending political parties. The pervasive inciting speeches
and vague statements by prominent politicians could have security implication
if caution is not taken.
The last appears not have been
heard of the estranged relationship between APC law makers in Ekiti and Fayose.
The Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Dr Adewale Omirin, has reacted to
the alleged directive by Governor Ayodele Fayose urging the Ministry of Justice
to write a memo authorising the state commissioner of police, Taiwo Lakanu, to
arrest the 19 All Progressives Congress (APC) lawmakers. The APC lawmakers have
continued separate plenaries in an undisclosed public building in Ado-Ekiti,
the state capital. This contestation for supremacy in the state might
degenerate into open confrontation that could blossom as presidential election
approaches. Though there is no governorship election in the state, the plan by
current members of the state house of assembly for re-election will certainly
generate fierce competition that might lead to violence.
We categorized the states
according to the perceived level of threat using traffic light signals (green,
amber and red). Red indicates presence of insurgency, intensity of politics
with presence of different gladiators, violence that can lead to loss of lives
and properties, Amber indicates presence of tension that have not escalated to
earlier category under Red and Green is anything not Red or Amber. Most States
fit into various categories depending on the level at which the analysis is
done, that is either national or regional level. However, in this edition,
analysis was done at the regional level to ensure that all possible threats and
hotspots are identified and mapped accordingly.
In periods like this, Kano, Kaduna,
Zamfara and Katsina should be carefully watched. Following the party congresses
Kebbi and Sokoto are heating up and need to be watched. In Sokoto Mukhtari
Shagari’s group is not looking happy and the intervention by the Vice President
on behalf of the PDP appears to have failed to address the situation. In Kebbi
there are protests against the nomination of Bello Sarkin Yaki of PDP. Similar
situation applies in Jigawa, where a group of PDP gubernatorial aspirants have
been protesting against the nomination of Aminu Ringim.
It appears southern Kaduna, Kaduna city,
Katsina and Kano
city will be major flashpoints. The nature of violence may not necessarily be
partisan; it could take different dimension including ethnic or religion,
banditry and targeted assassination. Southern Kaduna
has been experiencing ranging spate of banditry and violence with strong
possibility of escalating reprisals attacks in other parts of the state.
Some state governors have
openly called for violent attack on the opposition in the North; the case of
Katsina has earlier been reported. Very recently, Jigawa state Governor, Sule
Lamido made a similar statement when he called for a violent reaction to the
opposition. As the country moves closer to the 2015 election, the internal
contradictions of the two major parties have begun to manifest in all the
states, these contradictions have strong potential for violence. The political
contentions coupled with identity based historical grievances could degenerate
into violence. The two major parties still harbour disgruntled members. As we
move close to the elections some of them will begin to express their
grievances. This could impact on security and even the conduct of election in
most of the state.
Borno – All the 27 LGAs; Bauchi – Bauchi municipal, Azare,
Tafawa Balewa; Adamawa: Yola, Mubi North, Mubi South, Madagali, Michika, Hong,
Gombi, Maiha; Gombe: Gombe; Taraba: Jalingo, Wukari, Ibbi; Yobe: Damaturu,
Gujba, Gulani, Potiskum; Uyo, Ikot Ekpene, Ibiona, Ikah and Etimekpo.; Bayelsa: The entire state will be hotspot for
violence; Delta: Warri; Cross Rivers: Cross Rivers South Senatorial District;
Imo: Isiala-Mbano region where both Ararume and Ohakim come from; and
Owerri/Mbaise axis where Ihedioha and Agbaso hold sway and who feel it is high
time they got the Governorship after so many efforts.
Source of table above:
CLEEN Foundation election viability survey
Those who think violence will be an issues
in February (15% of the total sample) further think that this will most likely
occur in the polling units (66%) and collation centre (52%). When analysed
according to age group, there is a higher percentage of Nigerians aged 18-21
years who think violence will be conducted at the collation centre in comparison
to the polling unit.
· RED: NC – Benue, Nasarawa, Niger and
Plateau; NE – Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe, NW – Kaduna, Kano
and Kastina SS – Bayelsa, Rivers; SW – Lagos, Ekiti and Oyo SE – Imo, Ebonyi
· AMBER: NC Federal
Capital Territory,
Kogi, and Kwara; NW – Zamfara, Sokoto, SE – Enugu,
Abia and Anambra; SS – Cross River, Delta and Edo;
SW – Ogun and Ondo
· GREEN: NW- Jigawa and Kebbi, SW – Osun; SE
- Ebonyi
In the North East, the
continued bombings, killings and expanding sphere by the insurgents has cast
doubts on the conduct of elections in the region in 2015. Internally displaced
persons are on the increase due to insecurity in the region. Across the zone, the
following LGAs are very volatile due to insurgency; (Bauchi) – Bauchi
municipal, Azare; (Adamawa): Yola, Mubi, Madagali, Michika, Hong, Gombi, Maiha
(Gombe): Gombe; (Taraba): Jalingo, Wukari, Ibbi; (Yobe): Damaturu, Gujba,
Gulani, Potiskum, Aguta and Ohaji in Egbema Local Government.
There were fears in Darazo when
supporters of two People’s Democratic Party (PDP) (Honourable Dayyabu Chiroma,
who is the chairman, House Committee on Information, and Garau Adamu), Bauchi
State House of Assembly aspirant in Darazo Local Government Area of Bauchi, on
Sunday 30th November 2014 clashed in Darazo, the local government
headquarters as
a fallout of the PDP House of Assembly primary election. In the same LGA, the
Bauchi state police command has intercepted a High Trailer loaded with ballot
boxes at a check point in Darazo local government area of the state. Many
Nigerians received the news with shock. Political parties have also taken
advantage to start trading words.
In Adamawa
State, two parallel PDP gubernatorial
primaries elections were held (in Yola and Abuja). In Abuja, former EFCC Chairman, Nuhu Ribadu from
Adamawa Central perceived to be backed the national PDP was declared winner
while in Yola, the incumbent Bala James Ngilari (Adamawa north) was given the
governorship ticket. In view of the political developments that ensued since
the impeachment of former governor Murtala Nyako in the state, it appears the
worst is yet to happen in the state. In Taraba State,
the zoning of the governorship to the southern zone has led to the emergence of
Mr. Darius Ishaku (former Minister of State for Niger Delta) as the PDP flag
bearer but this was rejected by a section of the party. Similar situations
marked the primaries in Bauchi and Yobe
States where the national
leadership of the PDP is likely to be dragged to court or being threatened over
alleged irregularities. In Bauchi, former Minister of Police Affairs Dr Yakubu
Lame has vowed to challenge the decision of the PDP in court while former
Minister of State Finance Dr Yerima Ngama is considering other options
(including dumping the PDP). But concerns over irregularities in the party
primaries were not limited to the PDP alone. Within the opposition APC for
instance, three of the four gubernatorial aspirants boycotted the primaries in
Taraba two days before the elections for alleged favoritism of one of the
candidates. In Gombe
State, the All
Progressives Congress, APC, has accused Gombe State Governor Ibrahim Hassan
Dankwambo of intolerance and working to obliterate the APC presence and also
victimize the party’s members in the state. As the campaign trails travels
nooks and crannies of the state, public peace might be disrupted if necessary
measures are not taken for equal playing group for all political parties.
In the North West, there are no surprises on the
gubernatorial candidates in the 7 states.
The party congresses and primary elections have generated huge tension,
contentions and even violent skirmishes in some of the states, but there are no
major incidences of violence. The heightening political situation remains a
major security threat. The security situation is still principally dominated by
cases of Boko Haram insurgency, cattle rustling, banditry and rape. There are
reported cases of skirmishes between pastoral communities and rural sedentary
farmers in some parts of southern Kaduna,
Zamfara and Katsina state. In Kaduna, Kano, Katsina and Sokoto
inter party and intra-party tension and contentions are deepening, cases of
defection and counter defections between the two major political parties are
still going on. In Kaduna
State, no fewer than 10
persons were on Saturday 27th December night killed by gunmen at the
Tattaura village in Sanga Local Government Area. The continuous sacking of
villages in Kaduna
remains worrisome even as the election approaches. Allowing these attacks
amidst this period of election could undermine the ability of INEC to conduct
elections across the state. The massive presence of homeless youths, aimlessly
walking the streets of Kaduna
and the sharp divide between Muslims and Christians, could be a timed-bomb
waiting to denote.
Party nominations processes
have been concluded. There are no major surprises. In governorship election, it
is generally a two horse race between APC and PDP, except in Katsina state,
where PDM and APGA have produced some strong and relatively popular candidates.
In Kaduna, Governor Ramalan Yero has been
returned by PDP against Nasiru El-Rufa’i of APC, in Kano it is Abdullahi Ganduje of APC against
Sagir Salihu Takai of PDP. In Sokoto it is Aminu Tabuwal for APC against
Abdallah Wali of PDP. Katsina state APC has produced Aminu Bello Masari against
Musa Nashuni. Zamfara has Abdulaziz Yari of APC against former governor Mahmud
Ali Shinkafi of PDP. Kebbi PDP has produced Bello Sarkin Yaki against Atiku
Bagudu of APC. In Jigawa is Aminu Ringim of PDP against Ibrahim Hassan Hadeijia
of APC.
In north central particularly
in Kogi State, communities have been sacked by
herdsmen attacks and recently, robbers killed four mobile police officers in
Okene. The officers were killed by armed robbers, on the night of Tuesday,
December 23, during an attack on one of the banks. The shape that violence
might take in Kogi state is not clear as there is no governorship election in
the state for now. In Plateau
State, the emergence of
Gyang Pwajok an alleged cousin of the incumbent governor as PDP governorship
flag bearer has created internal and external hatred against the party. Some
communities are currently threatening refuse him access to their land for him
to campaign. Some persons were feared killed in a dawn raid on Ashigye, a
settlement at the outskirts of Lafia, Nasarawa State
capital, on the 3rd of December when some gunmen attacked a convoy
of Migli farmers along the Ashangwa and Amawo road. The tension in the state was
further aggravated by the rumors of the governor’s death but for prompt
intervention. Meanwhile, tension in different communities remains very high.
Mass protests greeted the party
nomination processes and procedures in the south west as many of the aspirants
kick against the outcome of the party primaries organised by their respective
political parties. In Ondo State, parallel primaries were organised by two
different factions of Peoples Democratic Party in the ‘Sunshine state’ while
petitions to appeal panels and
court litigations have become the order of the day. The Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) press on with preparation for the
elections as list of nominated candidates for Senate, House of Representatives
and presidential seats were submitted to INEC on Thursday, December 18, 2014.
Unease still envelope Ekiti State as the intra-state assembly crisis remain
unresolved with the Governor presenting the state’s 2015 budget to the Group of
Seven PDP lawmakers just as the 19 APC lawmakers headed to court to reclaim
their right. The controversy as to who is in control of the machinery of the
Ogun State chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party seemingly appears to have
taken a new turn as the Independent National Electoral Commission has accorded
recognition to the Buruji Kashamu-led faction of the party. The Commission has
given recognition to the parallel primaries conducted by the Kashamu-led
faction of the party. This could however lead to unhealthy alliances that might
further threaten the relative peace within the south west and Ogun state
specifically.
In the South-South, the agitation
by the Ogoni people remains threat to public peace and the conduct of election
in Ogoni land in February 2015. On the 29th, youths protested
against perceived political and environmental marginalization by political
parties in Rivers
State. There were also cases
of youth restiveness and agitation in parts of the south-south by ex-militants,
protesting against nonpayment of their allowances.
Grievances arising from the
primary elections of political parties in Cross River States are critical
categories for understanding current security threats in the state. The key
actors—political parties, candidates, their followers, as well as election
managers, civil society and incumbent political leaders are shaping the
structure of political conflict.
In the South East, Governor
T.A. Orji has chosen Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu from Obingwa LGA, as his successor, and
ensured that his name was accepted by the INEC as the PDP gubernatorial
candidate for the February 2015 general elections. However, the Aba people, who
are a formidable force in Abia politics, have stridently made it clear that he
was not a candidate fit to be foisted on the people of Abia after T.A. Orji.
Already, allegations of tax evasion and misappropriation of public funds under
his watch is becoming prominent in public discourse. But, given that virtually
all the incumbent members of the Abia House of Assembly were not returned and
the PDP have been smart to pick the Speaker of the House as the running-mate to
Dr. Ikpeazu, thereby swaying all the members with their supporters to PDP.
Among the opposition, there is
also total confusion as APGA, is yet to clearly define who its candidate is
between Reagan Ufomba and Alex Otti. As a new entrant into the party through
one faction, Dr. Alex Otti, “has no chance of picking the ticket of APGA as
Chief Reagan Ufomba has been on ground and has been doing his thing quietly”
claims a Chieftain of APGA from Isiala-Ngwa. But the delay from Reagan is
because he is “waiting for the Supreme Court verdict on the Victor Umeh vs Maxi
Okwu case on the leadership of the party. One major issue that would likely
decide the fate of the elections is the role of the churches in the State. It
must be stated that there is serious apathy on the part of the people as they
believe that their votes would not count, and so nobody has bothered to go and
collect their PVCs except those who think they can make some money out of
having it at all. Security-wise, the presence of the military in the state has
helped to maintain some sense of public safety among the populace. There is
significant reduction of kidnapping cases and other crimes.
There will be no gubernatorial
elections in Anambra State in 2015, and APGA has adopted President Jonathan as
their presidential candidate for the 2015 general elections, thus leaving the
battle at the National Assembly elections, where the money-bags will likely
clash. None of the serving Senators – Andy Uba and Margery Okadigbo (PDP), or
Chris Ngige (APC) – is stepping down. With the entrance of former Aviation
Minister, Stella Oduah into the race, it is bound to get tough. On the other
hand, Mr. Ernest Ndukwe wants to take over the Anambra South senatorial seat
presently occupied by Andy Uba. Also, the recent defection of some APGA
legislators to the PDP portends a serious contest for the National Assembly.
This is essentially due to the risks of violence during the legislative
elections. A lot of fireworks are expected around those eyeing the seats of
Senators Andy Uba (PDP) and Margery Okadigbo (PDP). From information gathered
from discussions with politicians in the State, it seems Senator Chris Ngige’s
Senator of the APC may not win the February 2015 elections owing to his poor
performance in the last elections and coupled with the seeming non-acceptance
of the party by the State. According to Okoye Udineke from Nri, Anaocha Local
Government, “Ngige has lost his magic; nobody takes him seriously anymore as he
has not done anything for anybody since he has been at that Senate position”.
Hon. Ekwunife and Victor Umeh, former National Chairman of APGA, are among the
aspirants ready to take over from him.
Recent developments in Ebonyi
State, especially with the outcome of the PDP primaries shows that the Deputy
Governor, Dave Umahi, in concert with Anyim Pius Anyim and Sam Egwu, have
outmanoeuvred the political calculation of Governor Martin Elechi, thereby
heightening political tension in the state. The rumour of purported plans to
impeach the Governor by the House of Assembly, suggests that there could be
problems during the elections. Again, with the Governor losing his ambition to
go to the Senate, the Governor’s supporters have decamped to the Labour Party
in a suspected bid to help him actualize his ambitions on that platform.
December 2014 saw the end of
the political crisis in Enugu
State between Governor
Sullivan Chime and Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, with the resolution
of the conflict of interests between the two major actors that underpinned
political tension within PDP in the State. While Ekweremadu got his position,
the Governor decided to shelve his ambition to run for the Senate in exchange
for his preferred candidate to be accepted as the PDP gubernatorial candidate
for the February elections. With the election of Hon. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi as the
PDP gubernatorial flagbearer for the 2015 general elections by the delegates in
the PDP primaries, ensuing political tension now is between the PDP and Senator
Ayogu Eze, who claims to have the authentic delegates’ list for the primaries.
It is rumoured that the Governor’s camp is jittery as Ayogu seems to have a
genuine card to play given that has been boasting that he would teach both the
Governor and Ekweremadu a lesson for trying to retire him politically. Ayogu’s
angst is based on the calculations that did not guarantee him his ticket to go
back to the Senate in the event of the adoption of Ugwuanyi, thereby leaving
him stranded. The contention now is “who has the authentic delegates’ list”,
which may prove critical in determining the outcome of a legal tussle that
would be decided in the courts by January.
Meanwhile, Senator Ayogu Eze
reportedly fled to Niger
Republic in order to
evade an alleged killer squad sent to kill him. Notwithstanding, there is no
serious risk of violence as the matter is internal to PDP. Given the popularity
of the PDP in the State, anybody that eventually emerges would be supported by
the party as the PDP would not want to risk losing the State to any opposition.
More so, the opposition parties are weak in the State.
The potential for violence in
the 2015 general elections in Imo
State, especially the
gubernatorial contest, is high. Major contenders from the PDP, Emeka Ihedioha,
Ikedi Ohakim and Ifeanyi Araraume are slugging it out after a tense primaries
election. APGA has a formidable kingmaker, Martin Agbaso and Col. Emmanuel
Iheanacho. Both PDP and APGA have formidable structures in the State and are
investing heavily to recapture the state, while Okorocha’s APC wants to retain
the State and show that it is a force to be reckoned with. The PDP has been
bolstered by the reconciliation of various factions earlier in the year, but it
has not stopped the fierce quest by all those interested in Okorocha’s job. The
contest is potentially explosive as those who are interested in the job are all
veterans in their own right and are not ready to back down. According to
Ifeanyi Iwuoha, a staunch PDP member, former Governor Ikedi Ohakim, is billed
to decamp to PPA to actualize his dream of “let’s-do-one-more-term” after the
expected court judgment that would likely change the entire scenario in
January.
There was a jailbreak in Minna Niger
State, on the 6th
of December 2014 which culminated in the suspension of the comptroller of
Prisons by the Minister of Interior. More than 200 inmates escaped in the
attack on the prison in Tunga. This incident was the third of its kind in the
past two months in Nigeria.
As jailbreaks become frequent, no one is verifying claims that fleeing inmates
have been rearrested. More than 300 inmates broke out of a prison bombed by
gunmen in southwest Ekiti state some few weeks back and 144 escaped from the North-central Kogi state on November 3 when gunmen bombed
a prison wall. As the general elections approaches, the continuous escape of
these potentially dangerous individuals into the streets poses a great threat
to the conduct of violent free elections.
There has been long agitation
for reforms within the Nigeria
prison system as most of the prisons are crowded, poorly structured, weak
walls, with more cases of awaiting inmates. Criminal Justice (Release from
Custody) (Special Provisions) Act Cap C40 LFN, 2004 is currently before the
National Assembly for amendment. While hope for this may not yet see the light
of day, this reform does not sufficiently address the issue of poor funding,
corruption and poor structure in the system. In recognition of continuous cases
of inmate awaiting trail, a court presided over by Justice Mohammed Lima gave
ruling in a suit instituted by Messrs. Victor Emenuwe, Onome Inaye, Kabiru Abu,
Osagie Iyekepolor, Modugu Odion for and on behalf of inmates of Nigeria
Prisons, against Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the
Controller-General of Nigeria Prisons Service, directing the Defendants to
ensure that the Applicants are not disenfranchised. Many innocent Nigerians are
languishing in Nigeria
prisons and might not get to vote in the forthcoming elections.
In a similar development, the Premium
Times Nigeria reported that the Nigerian Army’s 7 division General Court
Martial convicted 54 soldiers for conspiracy to commit mutiny and mutiny and
sentenced them to death by firing squad. In another report, 203 soldiers were
alleged to have been secretly prosecuted and dismissed. In spite of the likely
political hijack of current challenges with discipline, the Nigerian military
has warned politicians against inciting soldiers to mutiny. However, the
Nigeria Military has denied alleged secret trials and dismissal. While
discipline is a sacred commitment in the regimental world of the military,
excessive exercise of disciplinary regimental rules shrouded in secrecy could
further dampen the morale of soldiers confronting insurgents.
The alleged report of
government institutions serving the interest of a seating government is
worrisome and could further undermine the little confidence and trust members
of the public have in such institutions. The invasion of the All Progressives
Congress office in Lagos
and the alleged failure of the Department of State Security Service to hand the
suspects over to the police for prosecution within the time frame allowed by
law could fester into tension. The fragility of this period requires prompt
security efficiency but such promptness must be guided by caution and proactive
information disclosure to douse caldrons capable of undermining public peace
that could spiral into chaos.
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