Introduction
All other things being equal, the people
of Rivers state will go to the poll in the federal and state legislative elections
on 10 December, 2016. After the contradictions of these elections in 2015 and
attendant court verdicts nullifying the affected ones, efforts at rerunning the
elections in the past by INEC have been largely under productive as a result of
violence.
Now that the elections have been
rescheduled to hold on 10 December, the outlook does not seem very positive. Like
all others before it, these elections promise to be, arguably, one of the most
keenly contested in the recent history of the state, especially under the
fourth republic. As such, the potentials for violence are obvious.Above all
else, the presence of election risk factors, most notably a history of
electoral violence, accusations and counter accusations, existence of criminal
gangs, cult groups and militants (for instance the Icelanders and Greenlanders),
among others, remain credible sources of concern. There have been reported
cases of shootings, killings, kidnappings/abductions, arson and related vices
in the name of the rerun elections.
The capability of INEC and security
agencies to act professionally and impartially in the rerun election has always
been questioned. The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in particular has
constantly, through the state governor, Nyesom Wike, put INEC and security
agencies to the sword, expressing its total lack of confidence in these
agencies to superintend a free, fair and credible elections in the state. The
situation reached a point where INEC had to respond by urging the governor to
stop inciting his supporters for violence. So the blame game continues.
Moreover, the electoral stakes are very high and the major political parties
are strategizing to outdo one another. As an observer pointed out in a personal
conversation, ‘these elections may be the last duel between the PDP and APC in
the state’. The possibility of a divided
government between the state and centre becomes an issue. Since the state is
under the control of the PDP, having APC dominate the state’s seats at the
National Assembly could be a source of concern. This is particularly the case
when 2019 is around the corner.
All these and related permutations tend
to add troubling twists and turns to the situation. The attendant heating up of
the political temperature of the state, if not well-managed, could generate
violence of immense proportion during and immediate after the election. This
places huge responsibility on the Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC), security agencies, mass media and other stakeholders in the overall
governance of the election. The way these agencies comport themselves could
help to salvage the situation or exacerbate it. This analysis explores
potential security risks and flashpoints during the rerun election in the
state. It also reflects some mitigating factors to could help remedy the
situation.
A
Brief History of Rivers State
Rivers State is one of the 36 states of Nigeria with
its capital in Port Harcourt. The state was created
in 1967 with the split of the Eastern Region of Nigeria. Until recently,
specifically 1996 when more states were created, its geography extended to the
present day Bayelsa state.
It is bounded on the South by the Atlantic Ocean, to the North by Imo, Abia and
Anambra States, to the East by Akwa Ibom State and to the West
by Bayelsa and Delta states.
Rivers state is home to a variety of ethnic groups. With a
population of about three million people occupying an area of
21,850 sq. km, the dominant ethnic groups are Ijwa, Ikwere, Etche, Ogoni, and
Ogba/Egbema. Ijaw and Ikwerre are the most spoken languages although pidgin
English is widely used in radio and television broadcasts. Others include Abua, Andoni, Ekpeye, Engenni, Etche, lbani,
Kalabari, Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni and Okrika. The inland part of Rivers state
consists of tropical rainforest; towards the coast the typical Niger Delta
environment features many mangrove swamps.
The
capital, Port Harcourt, is the nerve centre of the Nigerian Oil industry and
over ninety industrial concerns, including the Shell Petroleum Development
Company of (Nigeria) Limited, AGIP, Texaco, Elf, NPRC, Michelin, West African
Glass Industry, Alcan Aluminium, Metaloplastica, Risonpalm, NAFCON, Pabod
Breweries and many more. This explains why Part Harcourt has been a critical
economic hop for the country.
The state
has 23 local government areas. These are Ogba/Egbema, Ndoni, Ahoada, Ikwerre,
Etche, Andoni/Opobo, Bonny, Okrika, Iyigbo, Ehana, Gokana Tai/Eleme,
Obio/Akpor, Emohua, Degema, Aseri Toru, Akuku, Abua/Odial, Omumma, Opobo/Nkoro,
Ogu/ BolRo, Ahaoda West, Ahoada East and Eleme. These LGAs are divided into
three senatorial districts.
Table
I: LGAs by Senatorial Districts in Rivers state
|
S/N
|
Senatorial District
|
LGAs
|
|
1.
|
Rivers East
|
Khana/Gokana/Eleme/Tai/Oyigbo/
Opobo/Nkoro/Andoni
|
|
2
|
Rivers South East
|
Etche/Omuma/Ikwerre/Obio/Akpo r/ Port
Harcourt/Okrika/Ogu Bolo/ Emohua
|
|
3
|
Rivers West
|
Asari Toru/Akuku Toru/Degema
/Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni/Bonny/Abua -Odual/Ahoada East/Ahoada West
|
The Economy of Rivers State
Rivers state has one of the largest
state economies in Nigeria. In 2007, the state
reportedly ranked 2nd nationwide with a gross domestic product (GDP) of $21.07 billion and a per capita income of
$3,965.
The
economy of the state is driven largely by the oil economy as it has vast
reserves of crude oil and natural gas. Rivers State has two major oil
refineries, two major seaports, airports, and various industrial estates spread
across the land. More than 60% of the country’s output of crude oil is produced
in the state. Other natural resources found within its boundaries are silica
sand, glass sand and clay.
Once
reputed for its agricultural productivity, especially palm oil and kernel which
basically constituted the main revenue source of the country then, the curse of
oil has since diminished its agricultural potentials. As such, there has been a
sharp decline in the production of oil palm products, rubber, coconut, raffia
palm, jute, vegetables, melon, pineapples, mango, pepper, banana and plantain,
all of which were produced before the advent of oil economy. With its many rivers too, the state was also
known for fishing, which has also been adversely affected by the other side of
the oil economy: pollution and attendant elimination f aquatic resources.
The state also thrives on tourism,
especially given the attractiveness of its capital, Port Harcourt that earned
it the appellation of ‘The Garden City’. This is in addition to its historical
sites, long coastline, lakes, forest and cultural events, all with their
tourism potentials. However, excruciating security concerns would appear to
have done some damage to the development of the hospitality and tourism
business.
Politics
in Rivers State
Politics in Rivers has always been
highly competitive and intense. During the second republic (1979-1983), by
which time the state had been created, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), won
the governorship election with Melford Okilo as Governor. During the
short-lived third republic (1992-1993), Mr. Rufus Ada George of the National
Republican Convention (NRC) won the
governorship election. His reign was, however, cut short with the abortion of
the republic via the annulment of 12 June 1999 presidential election by the
Babangida regime.
Table 2: Elected
Governors of Rivers state, 1979-2016
|
Name
|
Title
|
Took
Office
|
Left
Office
|
Party
|
|
Governor
|
October
1979
|
December
1983
|
||
|
Governor
|
January
1992
|
November
1993
|
||
|
Governor
|
29
May 1999
|
29
May 2007
|
||
|
Governor
|
29
May 2007
|
26
October 2007
|
||
|
Governor
|
26
October 2007
|
29
May 2015
|
||
|
Governor
|
29
May 2015
|
As the country returned to democracy in
1999, following years of military autocracy, Peter Odili of the PDP was elected
Governor of the state. He contested and won reelection for a second term in
2003. In 2007, PDP maintained its stronghold in the state with the election of
Celestine Omehia as Governor. His tenure was, however, short-lived as he was in
office from 29 May to 26 October, 2007. This was as a result of controversy of
the party primary and candidate selection of the PDP. Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi,
who won the party primary but was substituted with Omehia, had challenged the
decision in court. Interestingly, the court ruled in his favour and declared
him the rightful candidate for the party. Thus Amaechi became governor without
participating in the general election. Amaechi completed two terms as governor
in 2016. But before then, a major split had occurred within the PDP at the
national level. The inability to resolve the crisis led to the eventual
fractionalization of the party, with a significant portion joining the APC.
This faction included Amaechi and four other governors, a development that
generated tensions across the country but more intensively in Rivers state.
Indeed, this singular development was
arguably the single most important factor that shaped the 2015 elections in the
state. For the first time, two major parties have now come to slug it out in
the state contrary to the past when only one party was always dominant. The
attendant tensions between the APC and PDP remain a source of security threats
to peaceful elections in the state. The series of inconclusive elections that
we have witnessed in the state are good illustrations.
Table
3: Areas where rerun elections will take place in Rivers state
SS
Source:
INEC,
2016
Source:
INEC,
2016
In the race for the 2016 rerun
elections, it is important that all stakeholders respect the rules of the game
without which the risk of another inconclusive election stares us in the face.
We must do all that are humanly possible to avert such a thing. This is partly
why we are here.
RESEARCH FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
A. Methodology
In preparing this report, the
study adopts a combination of both descriptive qualitative and quantitative
methods. As such, data collection employs the method of triangulation,
involving a combination of several methods in the collection of data. Primary
data were collected through the use of
pre-election risk assessment protocol and instrument developed by the Electoral
Institute of INEC to elicit information from the general public and experts in
elections and election-related violence in Rivers state. More specifically, a
total of 376 of the instrument evenly distributed between the broad categories
of ‘General Public’ and ‘Experts’ were administered in the 23 LGAs of the
state. This implies that 8 instruments per category of general public and
experts were administered in each LGA, making a total of 16 per LGA.
The
administration of the instrument was preceded by a number of activities aimed
at simplifying the task and boosting the reliability and credibility of the
exercise. One of the most notable activities was the recruitment and training
of field assistants who administered the instruments. This was further enhanced
with the presence of field supervisors to monitor and ensure compliance with
the rules of the game, including strict adherence to all relevant ethical
considerations.
The
representativeness of respondents across various categories of analysis was
given adequate attention. In terms of geography, for example, the three
senatorial districts were not only adequately represented since all LGAs were
captured in the sample population, but almost in an equitably too.
|
Table 4:
Gender Distribution of Respondents (General Public)
|
|||||
|
|
|
Frequency
|
Percent
|
Valid
Percent
|
Cumulative
Percent
|
|
Valid
|
Male
|
70
|
20.0
|
76.9
|
76.9
|
|
Female
|
21
|
6.0
|
23.1
|
100.0
|
|
|
Total
|
91
|
26.0
|
100.0
|
|
|
|
Missing
|
System
|
259
|
74.0
|
|
|
|
Total
|
350
|
100.0
|
|
|
|
|
Table 5:
Gender Distribution of Respondents (Experts)
|
|||||
|
|
|
Frequency
|
Percent
|
Valid
Percent
|
Cumulative
Percent
|
|
Valid
|
Male
|
50
|
14.9
|
79.4
|
79.4
|
|
Female
|
13
|
3.9
|
20.6
|
100.0
|
|
|
Total
|
63
|
18.8
|
100.0
|
|
|
|
Missing
|
System
|
273
|
81.2
|
|
|
|
Total
|
336
|
100.0
|
|
|
|
The
gender dimension of respondents was also significant. Though low at 21 out of
the valid 91 respondents,it still stands at 31.8%. as revealed in Table 5 above.However,
this dropped significantly among the experts where only 13 of the 63 valid
entries were female, the remaining 50 male. In both cases, the seemingly low
level of female representation may be as a result of the too many missing cases
in the statistical analysis.
The
analysis of data was done using the qualitative and quantitative techniques,
the former employing content analysis and the latter frequency distribution,
simple percentages, tables, and charts.
We acknowledge
the limitation of our small sample size, as well as the high level of missing
cases. We attempt to make up for these shortcomings through the use of other
reliable means of primary data collection, most notably Key Informant
Interviews (KIIs) and FGDs in the state. We also gathered secondary data through the use
of media reports and reliable internet sources.
In
predicting and measuring the possibility and by extension the degree of
violence at both the aggregate (state-wide) and specific (LGAs) levels, we
adopt a classificatory scheme involving a range of scores indicating the
probable degrees of violence with lower and upper limits. In particular, RED ink is used to illustrate the highest level of
election risk factors with a range of scores between 30-100%. This is followed
by AMBER with a lesser degree of violence
and a range of scores from 10-29%; and GREEN
indicating a highly peaceful atmosphere with very limited likelihood of
violence at 0-9%.
Table 6: Measuring Indicators
of Possible Degree of Violence
|
Colour
|
Range of Scores (%)
|
Remarks
|
|
Red
|
30-100
|
Very violent
|
|
Amber
|
10-29
|
Violent
|
|
Green
|
0-9
|
Peaceful
|
B.
Key Findings I: Aggregate Level Data, Q1 (General Public)
At the aggregate level (across the whole
state), data generated from the study suggest that the 10 December, 2016
legislative election could generally be peaceful, devoid of any serious threats
of violence. This much is evident from the instruments administered across the
state. This finding is curious and hardly supported by findings from other
sources.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
To begin with, majority of respondents
at both the general public and expert categories are of the view that the
elections would generally be peaceful. When asked to express their views as to
whether the election in their respective locality will be peaceful or not, the
responses were generally positive, as presented in Table 8 above. In specific
terms, 27 (30%) and 22 (24.4%) of the respondents selected ‘strongly agree’ and
‘agree’ respectively. This gives a total of 49 (54.4%) of the respondents
across the 23 LGAs of the state with positive response. Only 14 (15.6%) and 8
(8.9%) of the respondents selected ‘disagree’ and ‘strongly disagree’
respectively, amounting to a total of 22 (24.4%).. 19 (21.1%) were, however, undecided. Situated
within our measuring indices, these data suggest that the 10 December rerun
elections in Rivers state will be relatively peaceful, with the likelihood of
violence standing at 24.4%. This falls within the category of Amber. Though low
at 24.4%, it is still a little higher than that of Ondo state which stood at
22%. These responses are depicted in Figure I below.
C:
Key Funding II: Aggregate Level Data, Q70 (General Public)
We attempted to establish the
reliability of the responses to the above question through another general
question, which happens to be the last on the instrument. Specifically, respondents
were asked how, after going through a number of other questions on specific
election risk factors in their locality, they thought the election would go on
the whole. The responses are presented in Table 9 below.
|
Table
8: Responses to Q70 - On the whole, how do you think that this election will
go?
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In their responses, 8 (12.5%) and 27
(42.2%) were of the view that the election would be ‘very peaceful’ and
‘peaceful’ respectively. This gives a total of 35 (54.7%) positive responses,
compared to 49 (54.4%) in the first question, showing a marginal difference of
0.3%. On the other hand, 5 (7.8%) and 3 (4.7%) were of the view that the
election would be ‘violent’ and ‘very violent’ respectively, totaling 8 (12, 5%).
However, 21 (32.8%) of the respondents were undecided. These responses are
represented: in Figure II below:
Though not without some minor
variations, there is a high degree of coherence in the pattern of responses to
the two main questions.Over-all, the data suggest the possibility of a peaceful
election with pockets of violence in the category of Amber.
D.
Comparison with Expert Data
At the aggregate level, there exists
some level of synergy between responses of the general public and those of the
experts. For the latter, 22 (31.9%) and 17 (24.5%) strongly agreed and agreed
respectively that the election would be peaceful across the state. This amounts
to 39 (56.5%) of positive response. 16 (23.2%) were undecided, while 3 (4.3%) and
11 (15.9%) strongly disagreed and disagreed respectively. It gives a total of
20.2% in negative responses. This is in agreement with the findings from the
general public where 54.4% and 24.4%of the respondents gave positive and
negative responses respectively.
Similarly, some degree of synergy was
also observed in the responses to Q70 where 10 (17.9%%) and 17 (30.4%) were of
the view that the election in the state would be very peaceful and peaceful
respectively, making a total of 27 (48.2%). This is slightly lower than the
data fromthe general public where 8 (12.5%) and 27 (42.2%) were of the view
that the election would be very peaceful and peaceful respectively, with a combined
positive response of 35 (54.9%).
E.
DISAGGREGATED DATA BY LGAS
The aggregate data presented in the
preceding sections suggest that the rerun elections in Rivers state may be
peaceful. This contradicts the findings from other sources, including personal
communications (KIIs) and FGDs. In this section; we reply more on data from other
sources to present possible scenarios for each of the 23 LGAs in the state. The
LGAs are presented in alphabetical order.
Abua/Odual
Local Government Area
Previous elections in the area have been
violent. So it has a long history of electoral violence and sustained pattern
of cult activities. We visited Omelema, Emilaghan Odaga, Otari, Omalem,Okana and Emabul communities. People
expressed fear of violence during the rerun election as they said had usually
been the case.Wards 1 and 3 were particularly singled out for attention due to
what respondents called‘the large number of registered voters to be harvested
in the wards’. Members of armed groups in the area were also said to be a
source of threats of violence during the rerun.
Category:
Red
Ahoda
East LGA
The area has a history of violence,
including cult activities and militancy. Moreover, Osy Ideozu, the PDP
Senatorial candidate, who won but had his election nullified by the court is
from the LGA. He is still in the race and that has its own twists and turns.
Category:
Red
Ahoda
West LGA
It has a history of electoral violence.
It also has a history of cult activities and militancy. However, respondents
are of the view that the recent amnesty in the state would appear to have
moderated events.
Category:
Amber
Akuku
Toru LGA:
It has a history of electoral violence.
It is also reputed as one of the major strongholds of Niger Delta militancy,
with a series of cult violence. However, a kind of peace of the graveyard tends
to exists there now because most, if not all the key political actors and
militants tilt toward a particular political party. Hotspots include Abonnema,
Obonoma, Kula and Soku.
Category:
Amber
Expectations are that the elections may
not be too peaceful in the area. The state Chairman of the APC and the former
Deputy Governor to Amaechi that defected to PDP are from this LGA. Secondly,
rerun in holding in all the 11 wards of the LGA and across all the three
categories of election in the state. Specific hotspots identified are Asarama,
Uyeada, Afaba and Iluru communities.
Category:
Red
Asari
Toru LGA
It is identified as one of the main
troubled LGAs in the rerun elections. One, Otelamba Dan Amachree, the APC
senatorial candidate for the zone is from the LGA. He is reputed to have some
political clout, having served as Deputy Speaker and Speaker of the state House
of Assembly in the past. Two, it is also the country home of Asari Dokubo, a
leading ex-militant. Three, Dokubo’s sister (sibling) is the PDP candidate for
the HoRs election in that constituency. Yet, the area has a history of violence
and militancy.
Category:
Red
Bonny
LGA:
Elections in the area are said to be
generally peaceful, with pockets of violence in Finima, Peterside and Ward 7. But
there has not been any history of bloody elections as in other parts of the
state. The fact that both the PDP and APC have their candidates for the HoRs
election from the same area is a source of worry. Yet the expectations are for
a peaceful election provided stakeholders play their roles effectively.
Category:
Green
Degema
LGA
We covered Bille, Obuama, Degema town,
Tombia, Usokun, Ke. One of the main challenges here relates to its topography
being located in the river-rine area of the state. Degema townwas identified as
a possible flashpoint due to the presence of political big wigs in the area.
Obuama was also listed as a hotspotbecause it is home to most of the
ex-militants who are known for political thuggery and cult activities. Clash of
interests between PDP and APC is also said to be rampant in the area.
Category:
Red
Eleme
LGA:
Our field assistants visited Alesa,
Alode, Agbonchia, Ogale, Ebubu, Eteo, Akpajo, and Onne. Findings reveal that
tensions are already very high in the area. There have been cases of electoral
violence in the past in places like Ebubu, Ogale, Agbonchia, and Alode. Also it
was noted that activities of cult groups (NEWELL AND DEBAM - ICELANDERS and GREENLANDERS)
within these communities have been devastating. Yet, the PDP senatorial
candidate, Olaka Nwogu, is from this LGA, which makes it a centre of attention.
So these communities are afraid thatsuch cult groups could be deployed for the
elections, as has usually been the case in the area. Worse still, community
members also expressed loss of confidence in the capability of security
agencies to offer adequate electoral security during the elections. Agbonchia,
and Alode were singled out hotspots for violence, and community members
anticipate violence during the re-run in the communities.
Category:
Red
Emoha
LGA
It has a history of violence, cultism,
kidnapping, etc. One is not sure how the amnesty can affect the level of
violence in the area. However, the fact that Andrew Uchendu, the APC senatorial
candidate for the Rivers Central is from the area, makes it potentially
volatile.
Category:
Red
Etchie
LGA
We covered Opiro, Mba, Akpoku, Okehi,
Orwu and Okomoko communities. It is characterized by a variety of criminal
activities such as robbery, kidnapping and pockets of oil-theft activities
along the Imo River axis. Its history of violence, especially in recent times,
is said to be strong. It is also reputed for bad terrain, which makes easy
accessibility difficult. It is said to be one of the areas for serious
manipulations as their results are said to always be among the last to come in
every election. Still, both the PDP and APC have candidates for the HoRs
election from the area.Akpoku, Okehi, Orwu (ward 10) and Okomoko(ward 6) were
identified as possible hotspots due to the prevalence of a general feeling of
insecurity in the area.
Category:
Red
Gokana
LGA:
The area has a history of electoral
violence. There were fears that key stakeholders, especially political parties,
INEC, security officials and other interest groups may not play according to
the rule of the game, thereby engendering violence.Yeghe, Bomuu and B’Dere were
seen as hotspots because of the presence of rival politicians belonging to the
different political parties with large support base. Moreso, there has been the
presence of rival cult groups, which in the recent past include, for example,
DEEBAM and DEWEL which allied themselves to the various politicians and their
parties.Now the ICELANDERS and GREENLANDERS are said to have taken oven. The
area also has a history of inter-community conflicts. Moreover, Magnus Abe, the
APC senatorial candidate in River South East is from the LGA, making it a
deeply contested area. In the last re-run election, the level of violence was
so much that voting materials were not allowed to be moved out by some powerful
political forces in the LGA. No one was able to vote, including the senatorial
candidate. In fact, INEC office in the LGA was burnt. In the run-up to this
rerun, shootings have been reported in some places.
Category:
Red
Ikwerre
LGA
Our field work covered four communities,
namely Elele, Egbeda, Obudoogan and Obila. It came across as one of the most
politically sensitive areas in the rerun election. This is not just because of
the activities of various cult groups in the area. It is also the LGA of former
Governor Rotimi Amaechi. The Amaechi factor, including federal might, and the
power of incumbency from the state, makes the area very sensitive. Residents
have serious fear that the election could be very violent in the area.
Category:
Red
Khana
LGA
Past elections in the area have been
violent. The march towards the rerun elections has also been tension-soaked.
There are signs that the rerun elections could be violent. For example, a few
killings have been reported in the area. The recent defection of the caretaker
Chairman of the LGA to APC has also generated its own tensions. Again, the INEC
office in the LGA was once set ablaze in July this year. People point at the
fact that the LGA is very large probably the largest in the state. Cult
activities, including killing and kidnapping are also a major issue in the area.
Category:Red
Obi/Akpor
LGA
We visited some communities in this LGA,
including Rumuagholu, Eneka, Rumualogu, Nkpolu, Igwurata, and GRA. Finding
reveal that the area has a history of electoral violence, a deve3lopment many
believed has dampened the moral of the people of the area. In Rumualogu,
respondents confirmed that there have always been cases of electoral violence
at every election in the community. Party chieftains from the two main parties
(PDP and APC) in the area are said to indulge in arming youths/thugs with
dangerous weapons and buy votes at polling units on the day of elections.
Identified hotspots include Rumualogu, Eneka, Rumuagholu and Igwuruta.
Category:
Amber
Ogba/Egbema/Ndom
LGA
Previous elections in the area are said
to have been very violent. Criminal activities have also been deeply entrenched
in the area. There are said to have been community displacements, violent cult
activities, kidnapping. These issues are said to have assumed political
colourations, though their roots may be elsewhere. The state chairman of PDP is
also from this LGA. There have been unreported cases of killings running into
1000s spreadacross many communities, especially Okposi; abduction of village
heads, assassination of perceived opponents, infighting between rival cults,
notably Icelanders and the Greenlanders, etc. There have been reported cases of
gun shots in the last couple of days. The election here may be bloody.
Category:
Red
Ogu/Bolo
LGA
The area has a history of violence and
inter-communal clashes. Previous elections here are said tobe general peaceful.It
also has a history of electoral violence, especially in recent times. Election
results were said to have been burnt in the last rerun election in the area.
Already, there have been reported cases of shooting in the area in recent
times. The LGA has three persons in key positions in the current government of
the state, including the Majority Leader of the State House of Assembly. All of
them may wish to deliver their area at all costs. The PDP senatorial candidate
in the zone, Senator George Thopson Sekibo, is from the LGA. Other parties may
want to make an inroad into the area. The Ikpokiri Island also requires
adequate security.Owo-Ogono and Ikpokiriwere however seen as possible hotspots.
Category:
Red
Okrika
LGA
We visitedAbam-ama, Ibaka, Kalio-Ama and
Ogan communities. The area has a history of communal violence. This tendency
tends to be extended, and indeed escalated during elections.It is the country
home of Ateke Tom, a leading ex-militant. The recent kidnapping/abduction of
six (6) police officers in the area, whose whereabouts remains unknown till
now, represents evidence of dangers in the area. Notable hotspots include
Kalio-Ama, Okochiri, Ogan, Ibaka,Kalio-Ama, Okochiri and Ogan communities.
Category:
Red
Omuma
LGA
We visited communities such as Eberi,
Obiohia, Obibi, Umuogba, Ofe and Oyoro, These communities are said to be remote
and characterized by robbery and recent history of kidnapping.Some parts of the
LGA, for example Ofe community, are said to be frequently exposed to activities
of armed bandits from Osisima LGA of neighboring Abia state. While the people look
forward to the polls; they are however afraid of alarming rate of criminal
activities like robbery, cultism and kidnapping in the area.Obiohia, Eberi and
Ofe communities were identified as violent hotspots for various reasons:
Obiohia is the highest ward with most populated polling units; Eberi for pride
and who wins the council headquarters; Ofe is the hub of criminality in the
area; criminals frequently enter the community through Osisioma in Abia state;
Category:
Red
Opobo/Nkoro
LGA:
It is one of the LGAs under the Rivers
South East where Magnus Abe is the Senatorial candidate. Our field work here
covered Queen’s town and Kalibiami main town. The area is said to be generally
peaceful, with limited or no history of electoral violence. Moreover, only
federal elections will be conducted in a few units. No hot spots were also
identified.
Category:
Amber
Oyigbo
LGA
The LGA is considered a potential
trouble spot for various reasons. Specifically, Wards 2, 3 Egberu, 6 and 9 are
violence prone essentially ward 3 and 6 have many escape route that will make
it difficult for security agencies to contend with. Ward 9 is urbanize and home
of a strong PDO stalwart, who had served as an Ambassador to south Korea, a two
term commissioner in Rivers state and currently the caretaker chairman of the
LGA.
Category:
Amber
Port
Harcourt LGA
As the state capital, Port Harcourt has
always been the hob of political activities in the state. This is not
surprising, given the high number of votes spread across 20 wards. Finding
reveal that turnout may be low here due to fear of violence. Cult violence and
kidnapping are rampant in the city. Supporters of the two leading parties, the
PDP and APC were said to be ‘combat ready’ for the rerun election. Some also
expressed fear that INEC and security agencies may be compromised to work
against the PDP in the state. It was also identified as a potential battle
ground for both pre- and post-election protests. Specifically, Wards 17, 18 and
19, Mile 1, 2 and 3 were identified as volatile areas for violence because of
the presence of political big wigs in the area. Also is ward 5 Port Harcourt
township area due to porous nature of the environment.
Category:
Red
Tai
LGA
The LGA has a history of violent
elections. People were of the view that the inability of security agents to
deal with emerging threats could trigger violence in the rerun elections. They
also noted that inadequate election materials had triggered violence in the
area in the past.There is a very fierce contest between the PDP and APC
candidates in the area. There is also a history of inter-communal conflicts in
the area. Still, criminality and cult violence are rampant in the area. Above
all else,the recent High Court ruling over the results of previous electionfrom
the LGA has become a source of controversy with both PDP and APC claiming victory
over the matter. The chances are that INEC’s interpretation of the judgement
wills me ‘reinterpreted’ by affected party. This is a dangerous sign that
should be watched. Flashpoints include: Nonwa, Ke-bara, Koroma, Kpita, Sime,
Baryeria, Bunu, Ken-Nkoro, Botem and Ban-Egoe
Category:
Red
.
SYNTHESIS OF KEY RISK
FACTORS
From our
findings, a number of election risk factors could trigger electoral violence
unless urgent steps are taken to mitigate them. These include:
Ø
A history of
electoral violence and activities of thugs:Rivers state has a history of
electoral violence particularly under the fourth republic. This has reached a
crescendo since the 2015 general election as a result of the realignment of
political forces that altered the balance of power between the PDP and APC
nationally and in Rivers state. Ever since, the spate of violence has been on
the increase so much so that attempts at conducting the inconclusive elections
of 2015 in the state also ended in another round of inconclusiveness as a result
of violence. Between the last attempt and now there is little to suggest that
anything fundamental has changed for the better. The state has a record of
militancy with several militia and cult groups all available for political
engagements and deployment. Most of the most notable ex-militants and warlords
are from the state and are known to be sympathetic to a political party. These
are credible sources of serious security threats;
Ø The activities of political parties: This is very
central as both experts and the general public were unanimous in this respect.
Specifically, 66 (75..9%) and 53 (86.9%%) of the general public and experts
respectively either strongly agreed or agreed that the activities of political
parties in the state could undermine the electoral process and cause violence.
Some of the underlined factors by experts include godfatherism, undue influence
of money and the unguarded utterances of political gladiators across the two
main parties. In particular, while 90.9% of general public respondents either
strongly agreed or agreed that activities of party thugs could be a source of
electoral violence, it was 86.9% among experts.
Ø The role and activities of INEC: A total of 67.2%
of expert respondents and 58.9% of general public respondents either strongly
agreed or agreed that INEC is pivotal to the peacefulness of the election. When
we consider the fact that 16.7% and 19.7% of general public and experts
respectively were undecided, it shows that very few respondents thought
otherwise. For most of the experts, some of the major issue they identified
with INEC include its perceived bias in favour of the APC, which they felt
could compromise its professionalism and overall performance during the rerun
elections. In other questions relating to INEC, for example, 86.3% of
respondent in the general public category either strongly agreed or agreed that
partiality of INEC officials could generate violence. The response was 91.1%
among experts, the remaining 8.8% undecided.
Ø The role and activities of security agencies: The role of
security agencies was also identified as pivotal to peaceful election. 64.8% of
the general public and 73.3% of experts either strongly agreed or agreed that
unless security agents display exemplary professionalism, non-partisanship, the
election could lead to violence. Furthermore, 91.5% of the general public and
96.4% of experts either strongly agreed or agreed thatpartiality of security
agencies/agents could cause violence in the rerun election. Experts also
alluded to the need to pay good attention to the welfare need of security
agents if they must measure up to expectations, adequacy or otherwise, etc.
Ø Judicial Institutions: The judiciary
was also identified as an important institution whose conduct could make or mar
the election. 43.3% of the general public and 56.7% of experts either strongly
agreed or agreed about the salience of the judiciary. One major issue
identified by experts relates to the phenomenon of corruption in the judiciary.
When the level of trust in the judiciary is poor, people may be tempted to
resort to self-help strategies.
Ø The Media: Though the media were identified by
58.3% of experts and 50.6% of the general public as constituting potential
source of threats that could instigate violence, especially when they fail to
operate within their ethical and legal codes.
Ø Traditional institutions: Traditional
rulers are ordinarily the custodians of traditional customs, traditions and
values. However, most of them appear to have been contaminated by politics.
Little wonder that 73.3% of experts and 48.9% of the general public considered
them as potential source of violence during the election.
Ø Others: many
other factors identified by experts of constituting risk factors in the
election include the following:
a)
Geographical
terrain:
b)
Non-adherence
to process and procedures
c)
Problem
with payment of election workers
d)
Problem
associated with recruitment of adhoc INEC staff
e)
Power
of incumbency
f)
Proliferation
of small arms and light weapon
g)
Corruption
among INEC officials
h)
Reliability
of election equipment
i)
Inadequate
training and conduct of security agents
j)
Strong
opposition
k)
Political
interference with the work of INEC
l)
Involvement
of informal policing groups
Though there were variations
in the degree of responses to these questions from one LGA to the other, the
approval rating to these questions were generally at least average (at 50%)
across the LGAs. This further lends credence to the findings presented in this
report.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
The Rivers state legislative
rerun elections are scheduled to hold on 10 December, 2016.At the aggregate
level, the data presented in this report suggest that the election may likely
be violent, with many potential hotspots.With the data from various sources, we
have classified the 23 LGAs base on the perceived degree of peacefulness or
violent potential of the election in a given area. It is, however, important to
note that noting is cast in iron or stone. The mere fact that an area is
categorized as GREEN, for example, does not imply that the election in the
areas will automatically be violence-free and vice versa. Much depends on
proactive measures taken to mitigate identified risk factors across the various
LGAs of the state.
Against the background of the
following, the following recommendations are considered imperative:.
Ø
There
is need for all institutions connected with the administration of the election
to embark on confidence building with all political stakeholders in the
election, most notably the ruling and opposition parties, civil society
organizations and the people at large.
Ø
In
particular, INEC and security agencies should meet periodically with these
actors to assure them of their neutrality, impartiality, willingness and
ability to act in a way that will ensure free, fair and credible election;
Ø
There
is need for timely distribution of election materials and personnel to ensure
timely commencement of voting across the state. This is, however, much more
crucial for the riverine areas where the challenges of transportation seem to
be more entrenched;
Ø
Notable
potential flash points during the election should be given more security
protection, together with more election observers, in such a way that no ballot
station will be left uncovered;
Ø
Activities
of notable political thugs/gangs criminal gangs, militants, especially the
ICELANDERS AND GREENLANDERS, should be monitored and curtailed;
Ø
There
is need for demilitarization of the mind through social mobilization of the
people on the need to shun violence during and after the election. This is a
task for political parties, INEC, civil society organizations, mass media and
the generality of the people;
Ø
All
adhoc election administrators should be adequately trained and monitored to
ensure compliance with established rules and procedures;
Ø All political
parties should be encouraged to adhere to peaceful electoral process through
the elections.
