Afrobarometer
Dispatch No. 18
Summary
Nigeria’s 2015 general elections,
delayed by six weeks because of scaled-up military operations against
terrorism, are likely to be the most competitive in the country’s history (see
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 11 at www.afrobarometer.org). The Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) has used the extra time to distribute more voter
cards and complete other preparations. In the tense build-up to the elections,
this new analysis of Afrobarometer survey data collected in December 2014 takes
the democratic pulse of Nigerians as they get ready to head to the polls.
Focusing on attitudes toward
democracy and accountability, the analysis finds that while most Nigerians
embrace the concept of democracy and reject other forms of government,
significant proportions of the population express support for non-democratic
practices, such as military rule or an authoritarian president who is above the
checks of Parliament and the courts. Public dissatisfaction with how democracy
is working in Nigeria and with the performance of their elected leaders is
high. Many Nigerians believe that public institutions and office holders can
serve as checks on each other, but they do not see voters as playing a leading
role in holding political officials accountable. Levels of citizen trust in
institutions and leaders vary, in parallel with perceptions of office-holder
corruption, suggesting that addressing corruption is likely to be a key to
building public trust in elected offices and government agencies.
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Two-thirds
(65%) of Nigerians favour democracy as the best form of government, a decline from
69% in 2012, and one in five (21%) say non-democratic forms can sometimes be
preferable.
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While
majorities reject non-democratic alternatives, 15% approve of military rule,
11% support one-party rule, and 9% approve of one-man rule.
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Nigerians show
relatively weak support for checks and balances to ensure that public officials
perform their functions appropriately, and most respondents do not see voters
and their ballots as playing leading roles in ensuring accountability.
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Ahead
of the elections, key political office holders receive weak approval ratings on
their performance, and public perceptions are characterized by low levels of
trust and high levels of perceived corruption.
Over the past 15 years, Nigeria has held four general elections, in
1999, 2003, 2007, and 2011. While democracy has other prerequisites, the
conduct of periodic elections is arguably the most important factor for the
sustenance of democracy. Nigerians are not strangers to the concept of democracy
– 72% understand the meaning of the word “democracy” in English (including 69%
of women), while 21% require a local-language translation to understand the
word.
Two-thirds
(65%) of Nigerians prefer democracy over other forms of government. This is a
decline from 69% in 2012. Moreover, a full 21% of citizens say non-democratic
forms of government can sometimes be preferable, while 11% say the system of
government in place does not matter (Figure 1).
While
majorities reject non-democratic alternatives, 15% approve of military rule,
11% support one-party rule, while 9% approve of one-man rule (Figure 2).
Figure 1:
Preferred form of government | 2012-2014
Respondents were asked: Which of these three statements is
closest to your own opinion? (%)
Statement 1: Democracy is preferable to any
other kind of government.
Statement
2: In some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable.
Statement
3: For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have.
Figure 2:
Support for alternative forms of government | 2014
Respondents were asked: There are many ways to govern a
country. Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternatives: (%)
A: Only one political party is allowed to stand
for election and hold office?
B: The army comes in to govern the country?
C: Elections and the National Assembly are
abolished so that the president can decide everything?
Only 7% of
citizens say Nigeria is “a full democracy,” down from 9% in 2012, while 10% say
it is “not a democracy” at all, a drop from 16% in 2012. Most Nigerians see
their country as a democracy “with major problems” (47%) or “with minor problems” (35%) (Figure 3).
Only 29% are “very satisfied” or
“fairly satisfied” with the way democracy is working in Nigeria, while 68% are
“not very” or “not at all” satisfied (Figure 4). Dissatisfaction with the
quality of democracy is a theme that cuts across the country’s six geopolitical
zones or regions, peaking at 75% who are “not very” or “not at all” satisfied
in the North Central, North East, and South West. Respondents in the South East
are the least dissatisfied (59%). There is no significant difference between
men and women regarding their satisfaction with democracy in Nigeria.
Figure 3:
Extent of democracy in Nigeria | 2012-2014
Respondents
were asked: In your
opinion, how much of a democracy is Nigeria today? (%)
Figure 4:
Satisfaction with democracy | by region | 2014
Respondents were asked: Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works
in Nigeria? (%)
In addition to support for and
satisfaction with democracy, a number of questions sought to determine
citizens’ attitudes toward specific elements of democracy, including the
balance of executive, legislative, and judicial powers and the role of opposition
political parties in supporting or holding the government accountable. The
results show mixed views of democracy in practice.
Two-thirds (68%) of Nigerians say
law-making power should rest with the National Assembly, “even if the president
does not agree,” but a significant minority (25%) say the president should
“pass laws without worrying about what the National Assembly thinks” (Figure
5).
Figure 5:
Who should make laws | 2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest
to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%)
Statement
1: Members of the National Assembly represent the people; therefore they should
make laws for this country, even if the president does not agree.
Statement 2: Since the president represents all
of us, he should pass laws without worrying about what the National Assembly
thinks.
Regarding checks against excesses
and abuses of power, survey respondents hold mixed views on institutional
accountability and largely dismiss accountability to the voters.
A majority of Nigerians (58%) say
the National Assembly “should ensure that the president explains to it on a
regular basis” how public funds are spent, while 40% say the president should
be allowed to govern freely without “wasting time” to justify expenses (Figure
6).
Figure 6:
Support for legislative oversight | 2012-2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements
is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%)
Statement 1: The National Assembly should
ensure that the President explains to it on a regular basis how his government
spends taxpayers’ money.
Statement 2:
The President should be able to devote his full attention to developing
the country rather than wasting time justifying his actions.
Regarding the balance of executive and judicial powers, more than
one-third (36%) of Nigerians say the president should not be bound by a court
decision if s/he does not agree with it, while 60% say the president must
“always obey the laws and the courts” (Figure 7).
Figure 7:
President bound by court decisions? | 2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements
is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%)
Statement 1: Since the president was elected to
lead the country, he should not be bound by laws or court decisions that he
thinks are wrong.
Statement
2: The president must always obey the laws and the courts, even if he thinks
they are wrong.
Respondents rank voters low in
their ability to hold public officials accountable for doing their jobs. The
largest proportions see the president as responsible for holding Parliament to
account (37%) and Parliament as responsible for holding the president to
account (33%). Only about one in five respondents see it as the voters’
responsibility to hold elected officials accountable for their performance
(Figure 8).
Figure 8:
Who holds elected officials accountable| 2014
Respondents were asked: Who
should be responsible for
making sure that, once elected, [National Assembly members, local government
councillors, the president, state governors, State Assembly members] do their
jobs?
Similarly, two-thirds (68%) of
Nigerians do not see elections as a means to “enable voters to remove from
office leaders who do not do what the people want” (Figure 9).
Figure 9:
Election efficacy for removing officials who don’t perform | 2014
Respondents were asked: How well do elections
enable voters to remove from office leaders who do not do what the people want? (%)
As for limiting presidential power by limiting the number of terms he
or she may serve, three-fourths (75%) of Nigerians say the president should be
limited to two terms in office (Figure 12). This support for term limits has
not changed substantially since 2012. In the North East, 92% insist on term
limits, compared to 64% in the North West (Figure 13).
Figure 12:
Views on presidential term limits | 2012-2014
Respondents
were asked: Which of the following
statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%)
Statement 1: The Constitution should limit the president to
serving a maximum of two terms in office. Statement 2: There should be no
constitutional limit on how long the president can serve.
Figure 13:
Views on presidential tenure limits | by region| 2014
(% who agree with each statement))
Asked about the role of losing political parties in holding the
government accountable, only 30% of Nigerians say the opposition should
“monitor and criticize the government in order to hold it accountable,” while
two-thirds (68%) suggest that the opposition should “accept defeat and
cooperate with government to help it develop the country” (Figure 10). The call
for the opposition to accept defeat and cooperate with the government rather
than hold it accountable rose by 9 percentage points from 2012.
The North East region stands out in
its conception of the opposition party as a tool for accountability, with 45%
saying the opposition should help to hold the government accountable. The South
East ranks highest (76%) in the call for the opposition to accept defeat and
cooperate (Figure 11).
Figure 10:
Role of opposition parties after elections | 2012-2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements
is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%)
Statement
1: After losing an election, opposition parties should monitor and criticize
the government in order to hold it accountable.
Statement
2: Once an election is over, opposition parties and politicians should accept
defeat and cooperate with government to help it develop the country.
Figure 11:
Role of opposition parties after elections | by region| 2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements
is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%)
Statement 1: After losing an election,
opposition parties should monitor and criticize the government in order to hold
it accountable.
Statement 2: Once an election is over,
opposition parties and politicians should accept defeat and cooperate with
government to help it develop the country.
Finally, regarding another potential check on political power, seven of
10 respondents (72%) support the media’s mandate to “constantly investigate and
report on government mistakes and corruption,” while 25% say that such
reporting harms the country (Figure 14).
Figure 14:
Check on government by the media | 2012-2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements
is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%)
Statement 1: The news media should constantly
investigate and report on government mistakes and corruption.
Statement
2: Too much reporting on negative events, like government mistakes and
corruption, only harms the country.
Corruption is a major problem in
Nigeria, and the promise to fight corruption has featured prominently in the
election campaign. A majority of survey respondents see “most” or “all” elected
office holders at all levels as corrupt, whereas religious and traditional
leaders are less likely to be perceived as corrupt. Members of the National
Assembly lead the list, with 62% of citizens saying that “most” or “all” of
them are corrupt (Figure 15). More than half (55%) of citizens say the
president and most or all of his office are corrupt. By comparison, smaller
proportions say religious leaders (28%) and traditional leaders (36%) are
corrupt.
Figure 15:
Perceptions of corruption| 2014
Respondents
were asked:
How many of the
following people do you think are involved in corruption, or haven’t you heard
enough about them to say? (%)
Findings on how much citizen trust their leaders tend to mirror perceptions
of corruption. More than one-third of citizens say they do not trust the
president (35%) or the National Assembly (36%) “at all” (Figure 16). Overall,
the National Assembly earns the least trust, with only 4% trusting it “a lot.” Among elected office holders, state
governors are the most trusted, with 16% trusting them “a lot.” In sharp
contrast, 29% say they trust religious leaders “a lot.”
Figure 16:
Trust in political, traditional, and religious leaders | 2014
Respondents were asked: How much do you trust each of the
following, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say? (%)
Alongside relatively low levels of citizen trust and high levels of
perceived corruption, public officials at all levels receive low approval
ratings for their performance. Parliamentarians score lowest; only 30% of
citizens “approve” or “strongly approve” of their performance, while 66%
“disapprove” or “strongly disapprove.” President Goodluck Jonathan’s performance
receives approval from 39% of citizens and disapproval from 59%. At 53%
approval, governors score the highest performance rating among public
officials.
A majority of Nigerians (58%)
approve of the performance of traditional rulers – a significantly higher
approval rating than those of elected public officials.
Figure 15:
Performance ratings of leaders | 2014
Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the
way that the following people have performed their jobs over the past 12
months, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say? (%)
As Nigerians head toward their fifth general elections since 1999,
strong majority support for democracy co-habits with a high level of tolerance
for values and practices at variance with democracy.
Nigerians do not consider their role as voters to be crucial in
ensuring accountability among public officials. While institutional checks and
balances are crucial in every democracy, Nigerians may need to consider the
value of the ballot as a viable guarantor of accountability.
