2015 BAYELSA STATE: Election Security Threat Assessment

Key Risk Factors:

• Southern Ijaw LGA which has a high concentration of ex-militant leaders poses specific security considerations.
• The riverine communities of Ekeremor and Brass LGAs also present a unique security challenges that would require keen monitoring throughout the election period.
• Sagbama LGA, the home town of the incumbent Governor Dickson is another area to watch as both candidates would be keen to claim victory there.
• Yenagoa LGA which houses the seat of power is an important area to watch security-wise.

Key Mitigating Factors:

• The 20 political parties involved in the election had signed a Peace Accord which observers say is holding in spite of occasional fracas between supporters of the PDP and the APC.
• Different initiatives have been held to sensitize candidates and supporters on the importance of peaceful elections.
• Bayelsa is a small state with only a total of 663,748 registered voters. The efforts of the police led by IGP Solomon Arase along with the support of other security outfits in the state and the region would likely be enough to forestall breakdown of law and order during the election.
• Should there be violence, it could be localised and rapidly quelled to avoid it spreading to other areas

Introduction
The governorship election in Bayelsa State is scheduled for Saturday 5th December, 2015. The atmosphere in the build up to this, has been tense and filled with fear of high level of insecurity. Understandably, the outcome of the 2015 general elections in which the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) which had been in power both at the federal level and in Bayelsa State for the past 16 years was voted out of the presidency, increased the stakes in the staggered governorship election in Bayelsa State as both the PDP and the All Progressives Congress (APC) are working hard to win the election in Bayelsa.

For the PDP, it is a battle to retain one more state in Nigeria to serve as a basis from which the party could attempt to relaunch itself to power in the next general elections. Bayelsa is also the home state of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, PDP’s presidential candidate who lost and conceded to President Muhamadu Buhari in the last general elections. Dr. Jonathan has been visible in his campaign for the PDP. Furthermore, although the governorship election held in Kogi State on November 21, 2015 was inconclusive with supplementary election scheduled for December 5, the APC was leading in the polls. The sudden death of the APC candidate,  late Abubakar Audu has exposed the elections to multiple legal tussles. Both parties would therefore seek to win convincingly to devoid any post-election challenge in Bayelsa State.

For the APC, this is the first time they would be contesting as an opposition political party in Bayelsa while being in power at the presidential level. The APC’s candidate is a former Governor of the State who is now seeking to unseat an incumbent of the PDP thus repeating the feat the APC accomplished at the presidential level last March. The APC is mobilising its resources across Nigeria – with the Vice President headlining one of their campaign rallies. Analysts believe that APC is seeking to win Bayelsa to consolidate it gains into the South South where it presently controls only Edo State.

Hot-spots for Violence

• Southern Ijaw LGA which has a high concentration of ex-militant leaders poses specific security considerations.
• The riverine communities of Ekeremor and Brass LGAs also present a unique security challenges that would require keen monitoring throughout the election period. Sylva who hails from Brass LGA is thought to be a favourite in that area, but he is keenly match by the strength of Dickson, the incumbent.
• Sagbama LGA, the home town of the incumbent Governor Dickson is another area to watch as both candidates would be keen to claim victory there. 
• Yenagoa LGA which houses the seat of power is an important area to watch security-wise. With its population and ease of access, all candidates would seek to win in the town where they intend to govern from.

Conclusion and Recommendations
As Bayelsans participate in the second staggered elections to be organised under the Muhammadu Buhari led administration and under the current leadership of INEC, there are important lessons for Bayelsans and Nigerians to take away from the process.

• The government agencies, especially the judiciary should be sensitive to the impact of their work on elections. Judgements on on-going criminal prosecution coming on the eve of the elections as well as the adjournment of hearing on eligibility suit of a candidate well ahead of the election date risk being interpreted as politically motivated and calculated to determine the outcome of the election.

To download the full report, visit www.cleen.org

CLEEN Foundation holds Security and Governance Fora in the South East, Nigeria

Nigeria has in recent years been battling different security and governance challenges which manifest in the form of impunity, mismanagement of resources, human rights violations, corruption, bad governance and insecurity.  CLEEN Foundation in a recent study on governance and security in the south east found among other things decline and marginalization of South East region of Nigeria, crime and insecurity, victimhood and poor governance etc. Key findings from the study reveal strong and casual link between poor governance and insecurity. It also shows that politics drives insecurity while lack of implementation of policies and reforms engender insecurity in form of backlash and leads to declining social capital. 

In an effort to strengthen the governance structures at the communal and local levels to provide support for promoting public safety and security, the CLEEN Foundation is partnering with the Ford Foundation to implement a project aimed at promoting governance and security in the South East geopolitical Zone. This builds on the lessons learnt from research and the implementation of other governance and security projects in Nigeria.

The CLEEN Foundation under the auspices of its South East Governance and Security Project organized the second “Governance and Security Forum” at Abakaliki LGA Secretariat Hall, Ebonyi State on Tuesday 3rd November 2015.

The Transitional Committee Chairman of Abakaliki LGA, Hon. Peter Nwaogbaga in his speech, thanked CLEEN Foundation and partners for convening the forum. The Forum brought together a cross section of over 70 participants drawn from Abakaliki LGA including experts and stakeholders from civil society organizations, security agencies, traditional institutions and other stakeholders within the region.

The Forum provided an opportunity for both structured and informal reflection on governance and security issues in the South East in general and particularly in Ebonyi State. Participants discussed and proffered solutions to identified challenges.

CLEEN Foundation is also engaged in building the capacity of community leaders and security agencies on conflict prevention, community policing, and educating them on negative effects of corruption to governance and security.

The discussions in Abakaliki were led by Mr. Frank Odita a retired Commissioner of Police and the Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of the CLEEN Foundation. Mr.  Ifeanyi Anyanwu, Program Officer and head of the CLEEN Foundation’s Owerri office facilitated the forum.

Presentations at the forum were aimed at educating participants on community policing and to facilitate discussions on safety, security and governance which contribute also to the adoption of the monthly NPF/VPS Coordination Meeting and Community Accountability Forum (CAF) that CLEEN Foundation and Justice for All (J4A) are implementing in seven states in Nigeria.

From Abakaliki, the “Governance and Security Forum” moves to Ebonyi LGA on 5^th November and thereafter to Enugu South LGA on 11^th November, 2015.

For more information on the project, please contact cleen@cleen.org or visit www.cleen.org. You can also follow us on twitter @cleenfoundation or like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CLEENFoundation/

Applications to the Investigative Reporting Training Program

Application Deadline: Friday, October 16, 2015

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The Access Nigeria Investigative Reporting (Research Reporting) Training Program aims to improve media’s capacity to produce investigative journalism reports - with a particular focus on corruption in the security sector - in order to enhance media's effectiveness as anti-corruption watchdogs. Through the Access Nigeria project, journalists in the investigative reporting program will have access to:

·         Investigative reporting skills-building workshops;

·         Eligibility to apply for financial support from an Investigative Reporting Innovation Fund; and a

·         Mentoring program that connects journalists with experienced investigative reporters. 

The program will provide targeted support for journalists to investigate and report in restrictive operating environments, access and analyze hard to find documents, and improve interview techniques to get the cooperation of official and other sources. Through the Investigative Reporting Innovation Fund, the program will offer pre-publication legal guidance to journalists around legal implications when carrying out investigations. Training provided will include discussions regarding the code of conduct and international standards of journalism ethics specifically regarding the issues of covering corruption around security sector. 

The program welcomes applications from qualified candidates in print, TV, radio, or electronic media. Participants profile: mid-career journalists who are willing to immerse themselves in an intense, interactive learning environment, can commit to attending the training workshop, and have demonstrated previous experience covering issues of corruption, public finance, justice sector or the security sector.

About IWPR:  IWPR in an international nonprofit organization that gives voice to people at the frontlines of conflict, crisis and change. IWPR helps people in the world's most challenging environments have the information they need to drive positive changes in their lives — holding government to account, demanding constructive solutions, strengthening civil society and securing human rights. IWPR builds the skills and capacity of local journalism, strengthens local media institutions and engages with civil society and governments to ensure that information achieves impact.

In Nigeria, IWPR is working in partnership with Partners for Democratic Change (PDC), the CLEEN Foundation, BudgIT and Public and Private Development Centre (PPDC) to implement the Access Nigeria project. More specifically, IWPR is collaborating with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR) on the investigative journalism training component of the project.

Investigative Journalism Skills Building Workshops

Workshops will focus on challenges faced on a daily basis in terms of researching, accessing and analyzing information in order to produce investigative reports designed to push boundaries and encourage public awareness around key anti-corruption themes.  

The first workshop is expected to take place over 5 days in Abuja in late October 2015 (October 26 – October 30, 2015).

Workshops will include curricula on the following topics:

·         Principles and best practices of investigative reporting

·         Ethics of Investigative Reporting and media code of conduct

·         Principles and best practice of data visualization   

·         Legal threats awareness raising and strategies for mitigation 

·         Freedom of Information Law

Investigative Reporting Innovation Fund: Journalists who fully attend the training workshop and publish their training experience will be eligible to apply for support from the Access Nigeria's Investigative Reporting Innovation Fund.  The fund will enable journalists to undertake investigative projects. Recipients of support from the Fund will also be assigned a mentor to provide guidance and support throughout the research, writing, and publication phases of the development of investigative reports. More information on how to apply for support from the Investigative Reporting Innovation Fund will be presented at the conclusion of the training program.

Schedule:

Friday, October 16, 2015: Deadline for applications to the Investigative Reporting Training Program

October 20, 2015: Selected participants for Training Program notified

October 26 – October 30 2015: Investigative Reporting Training in Abuja

November 9, 2015: Opening of application period for Proposals to Investigative Reporting Innovation Fund

December, 2015: Final application deadline for Proposals to Investigative Reporting Innovation Fund

November- February: Small Grants executed (anticipated)

From November 2015: Reports published (anticipated)

Selection Process and Evaluation Criteria: Applications to the training program will be evaluated with the following criteria:  i) Quality of statement of purpose and demonstrated interest in research-based reporting; ii) Quality of writing sample; iii) Diverse representation of media outlets and gender balance of participants. All applications will be reviewed by experienced selection panel, comprised of representatives from the Institute for War & Peace Reporting

 

Application Submission Instructions: 

Please find the application form at the following link: http://goo.gl/forms/Mp8zdNP3FZ

As well as basic personal details, the application form requires: (i) a Statement of Interest that outlines the applicant’s interest in the Investigative Reporting Training Program, a brief discussion of the applicant's preparation and background, and a statement regarding applicant's ambitions for potential Investigative Reporting projects; ii) a writing sample in the form of a previously published article that demonstrates the applicant's interest and capacity in investigative reporting; (iii) details of two professional referees who are able to verify your prior work experience and suitability for the Investigative Reporting Training Program.

Majority of Nigerians see cross-border movement as difficult

A majority of Nigerians value their right to move freely within West Africa but say that crossing borders for work or trade is difficult, according to the latest Afrobarometer survey.

The survey findings provide a snapshot of Nigerians’ mixed views on their country’s international relations, including their difficulties in crossing international borders, their assessment of assistance provided by the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), their preference for the United States as a model for Nigeria’s development, and their appreciation of China’s contributions as a business and development partner.

These findings are detailed in Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 43. Other survey findings on Nigeria are explored dispatches No. 11, 18, and 29. All are available at www.afrobarometer.org.

Key findings

• Six in 10 Nigerians (62%) say West Africans should be able to move freely across international borders in order to trade or work, but more than half (54%) say that doing so is “difficult” or “very difficult.”
• The United States is the preferred development model for Nigeria, favoured by 43% of respondents, followed by China (25%).
• Two-thirds (67%) of Nigerians perceive China’s economic and political influence on Nigeria as “very positive” or “somewhat positive.”
• Two-thirds (67%) say they did not receive remittances from friends or relatives living outside of the country during the previous year.

Afrobarometer

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across more than 30 countries in Africa. Five rounds of surveys were conducted between 1999 and 2013, and Round 6 surveys are currently under way (2014-2015). Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative samples.

Fieldwork for Afrobarometer Round 6 in Nigeria was conducted by Practical Sampling International (PSI) in collaboration with the CLEEN Foundation. PSI interviewed 2,400 adult Nigerians between 5 December 2014 and 19 January 2015. The sample covered 33 of Nigeria’s 36 states, as well as the Federal Capital Territory. It was not possible to conduct interviews in three states in the North East zone – Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe – due to unrest in the region, so substitutions of sampling units were made from neighbouring states in the same zone. Thus, each of the country’s zones is represented in proportion to its share of the national population. A sample of this size yields results at the national level with a margin of sampling error of +/-2% at a 95% confidence level. Previous Afrobarometer surveys have been conducted in Nigeria in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2012.

Charts

Figure 1: Difficulty of crossing West African borders | Nigeria | 2014

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how easy or difficult is it for people in West Africa to cross international borders in order to work or trade in other countries, or haven’t you heard enough to say? (%)

Figure 2: Perceptions of ECOWAS and AU assistance to Nigeria | 2014

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how much does each of the following do to help your country, or haven’t you heard enough to say: a) The Economic Community for West African States or ECOWAS?  b) The African Union? (%)

Figure 3: Best model for development | Nigeria | 2014

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, which of the following countries, if any, would be the best model for the future development of our country? (%)

Figure 4: Contributors to China’s negative image in Nigeria | 2014

Respondents were asked: Which of the following factors contributes most to negative images of China in Nigeria, or haven’t you heard enough to say? (%)

Download full report

For more information, please contact:

Dr. Willie A. Eselebor, 

Executive Director

CLEEN Foundation

Telephone: (+234) 1-493-3195

Email: cleen@cleen.org

Visit us online at: www.cleen.org and www.afrobarometer.org

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter @Afrobarometer.

Communiqué issued at the end of the two-day summit on security and governance in North East, Nigeria

Being text of a communiqué issued at the end of a two-day Summit on Security and Governance in the North East of Nigeria held on Monday 29th and Tuesday 30th June, 2015 at the Maidugu Guest Palace, Gombe, Gombe State. It was organised by the CLEEN Foundation in collaboration with the Nigeria Stability and Reconciliation Programme (NSRP) with support from the Ford Foundation.

The Summit was organized to facilitate discourse on the nexus between governance and insecurity in the North East. It is a follow-up activity to the finalization of a research on governance and security conducted in the six (6) states of the North East. The Summit provided a platform to extensively discuss the findings of the study along thematic lines, develop strategies for implementing the findings, agree on immediate priority areas and identify key partners to drive the initiatives forward in the North East.

The summit had in attendance about 70 participants, drawn from the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF), Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), Nigeria Police Force (NPF), National Boundary Commission (NBC), National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), National Unity and Peace Corps (NUPC), Nigeria Bar Association (NBA), Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (ICPR), Victim Support Fund (VSF), Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF), National Union of Journalists  (NUJ), the media, civil society groups and universities in the region, notably University of Maiduguri, Adamawa State University and Taraba State University. The opening session was chaired by Alhaji Lamido Abubakar (Durbin Gombe), representing the Emir of Gombe.

After very robust discussions and deliberations historical and contemporary security and governance challenges in the North East, including the on-going counter- insurgency initiatives, the participants observed that:

The security challenges in the North East are the consequences of failure of governance at different tiers of government;

Existing conflict early warning and response mechanisms have been weakened by poor inter-agency coordination and tensions in civil military relations that generally alienate the populace from government security institutions;

Although insurgency presents the most challenging threat to national and human security, the North East region has also been affected by communal violence, religious violence and violence conflict over land and water use. The insurgent groups have taken advantage of existing divisions, rivalries and conflicts among groups to unleash violence on communities in the region.

The ineffective response to the insurgency has stemmed from the fact that the Nigeria government initially under-estimated the capabilities of the insurgent group and overstated the capacity of the Nigerian armed forces and security institutions.

The counter insurgency initiative have suffered from poor equipment and poor intelligence management system of the Nigerian military as well as the military’s poor understanding of Nigeria’s geography ;

The default position of deployment of the military for internal security operations have kept the military continually engaged in internal law enforcement thereby contributing to the weakening of the law enforcement capacity of the police;

The porous state of Nigerian borders has provided a conducive climate for transnational crime such as unhindered proliferation of smalls arms and light weapons and trafficking in persons and drug that have made Nigeria’s border areas notably the Lake Chad Basin insecure but safe havens for insurgent groups and internal criminal networks;

Mutual suspicions and conflicting interests among member states of the Lake Chad Basin Commission have affected the operations of the Multinational Task Force (MNTF);

Recent efforts to counter-insurgent such as the procurement of more weapons for the armed forces, addressing of issue of discipline and loyalty, strengthening of cooperative frameworks among contributing states to the MNTF and relocation of the military command centre to Maiduguri have recovery of towns and communities held by insurgents. This has forced the insurgents to revert to terrorist tactics of suicide bombing increasingly carried out of women and girls.

The newly inaugurated administration of President Muhammadu Buhari enjoys enough goodwill both nationally and globally which is expected to boost the counter-insurgency effort.

There in need for close security cooperation at the regional level between affected countries within the Lake Chad Basin Commission, the ECCAS and ECOWAS;

Politicisation and opaqueness of the operation of the military makes it difficult to understand their efforts and provide support from the communities;

There is need for periodic progress report in order to understand the successes and failures of the various security agencies in the fight against the insurgency;

The Ministry of Defense should carry out its constitutional duties to procure weapons for the security agencies to prevent unilateral procurement by the agencies;

The advancements made in the 6 weeks to the election show that we have the capacity to deal with the insurgency, if we back it up with political will;

Community policing will assist greatly in feeding information into the national peace architecture and fostering community policing would make it difficult for groups like Boko Haram to grow unnoticed and unchallenged.

Following these observations, the participants resolved and recommended as follows:

Security

There is need to step up efforts to resolve all lingering incidents of violent conflict through proactive implementation of recommendations of panels of enquiries, addressing of grievances of disaffected groups and effective community policing;

There is need to improve equipment, morale and discipline in the military in order to sustain the gains in the counter-insurgency initiatives in the weeks preceding the 2015 elections;

There is need to strengthen coordination and collaboration among the different security institutions and between security institutions and the civil society;

The Mobile section of the Nigeria Police Force should be strengthened through better training, equipment and deployment to reduce frequency of deployment of the military for internal security operations;

Government and security institutions should be adopt measures including training, monitoring and application of sanctions to ensure adoption and observance of rules of engagement and respect for human rights and dignity by security personnel deployed for security operations;

There is need to effectively implement the national peace and security architecture designed to ensure early warning and effective response at federal, state, local council and community levels. The proposed National Peace Commission can be used to coordinate the functioning of the peace architecture based on existing peace and security structures;

The commendable effort to relocate the command centre to Maiduguri should be enhanced by the appointment of a war commander to lead operations and collaborate with the MNTF based in Ndjamena, Chad;

Government and the military should initiate concrete plans for demobilization and disarmament of the CJTF. There should involve creation of a database of CJTF members and roll out of plans for provision of vocational training and job placement of CJTF members and their possible enlisting into security agencies.

Traditional institutions that play crucial roles in conflict resolution at the local level should be strengthened to gain trust of stakeholders and complement the roles of other agencies and institutions.

Governance

Governance and service delivery should be improved especially at the state and local government levels in the North East to address the issues of youth unemployment and restiveness.

There should be strategic capacity building of community members to demand accountability and representation from elected leaders;

Credible platforms existing at the state and community level should be harnessed to support governance and security measures in the communities.

There is need to strengthen governance at the local level in order to close the gap between the government and communities. The prospects of bridging the gap can be enhanced through conduct of regular elections at the local government levels.

There is need for realignment of the statutory mandates of National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and States Emergency Management Agencies (SEMAs) and the National Commission on Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) to enhance coordination and effectiveness in the management of the humanitarian emergencies;

The Victim Support Fund (VSF) should be mobilized to deliver support to victims of the violence including families of members of the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) that died in operations, as well as women and orphans and others who suffered irreversible injuries and loss in the conflict.

Border development and management agencies should be strengthened by the creation of trans-border institutions and involvement of community institutions in border areas in security management.