Key Risk Factors:
- · Inability of electorates to obtain their Permanent Voters Card and register during PVC/CVR exercises.
- · The issue of zoning and religious balancing is a major risk factor if not well handled.
- · Political assassination, kidnapping, armed robbery and bombings may escalate as we approach 2015.
- · The nexus between drugs, arms and crimes that needs to be effectively contained.
Key Mitigating Factors:
- · INEC should ensure the proper capturing of voter details and ensure it uses the card reader for voter verification during the 2015 polls.
- · INEC, National Orientation Agency, media and Civil Society Organisations need to embark on voter education.
- · INEC should shelve the creation of the proposed 30,027 additional PUs till after the next general elections.
Political Context
Preparation for the
February 2015 General Elections is amidst increasing concern of high levels of
insecurity and violence in the election days and the days immediately after.
The concerns are that the current security situation such as continued
insurgents attacks in the North East, attempts by insurgents to infiltrate the
South South, incursion by Cattle Herdsmen openly armed with AK47 rifles in the
South East, political killings and proliferation of Small Arms & Light
Weapons (SALWs), would fuel an outbreak of violence.
The Government
recently scaled-up its on-going intervention of providing heavy military
presence across Nigeria to curb insecurity. Military personnel and over 30,000
and 73,000 security agents were deployed to the Ekiti State and Osun State
Governorship Elections respectively. The elections were conducted in June and
August 2014 and were incident-free. The Independent National Election
Commission (INEC) has been lauded by some Stakeholders for this feat and also
for suspending two Electoral Officers over administrative lapses during the
Osun State Elections. Some see these events as a foreshadowing of free and
fair, violence-free General Elections in February 2015.
Preparations
for the Elections
On
May 16, Independent National Election Commission (INEC) inaugurated the
National Inter-Agency Advisory Committee on Voter Education and Publicity
(NICVEP). The Commission is expected to issue Notice of Election on 1 October,
2014. INEC distributed Permanent Voters Card (PVCs) and continued with
Continuous Voters Registration (CVR) across the country. INEC also procured
150,000 Card Readers to fast track the accreditation process of voters during
the February 2015 General Elections.
INEC
has also established citizens’ contact centres as well as online voter
verification platform. It plans to use electronic transmission of results
during the next general elections and is in the process of implementing a
redelineation (delimitation) of electoral constituencies aimed at creating an
additional 30,027 Polling Units (PUs) ahead of the 2015 elections (21,615 PUs
allocated to the North; 8,412 PUs to the South).
The Nigerian
Police, through the former Force Public Relations Officer had reported that the Police had commenced
training of its officers and men on election policing ahead of the 2015 polls.
Gender
Dimension
A combination of cultural practices, religion and a
long history of political exclusion has continued to keep women out of active
political participation. Women with ambition for prominent political positions
have had to endure the usual electioneering process as well as the patrilineal
nature ideology prevalent in parts of Nigeria.
Women are not currently featuring prominently in most
of the permutations, neither are they strategically involved in any of the
political parties.
Although women usually are more of victims than
perpetrators of electoral violence, recent suicide bombings by women in Kano
and Lagos States by a person (gender undetermined) dressed in hijab has placed
a different perspective on this opinion. In July alone, five synchronized
teenage female suicide bombers killed scores of people in different locations,
in Kano State.
Presence and
Activities of Non-State Actors
Understanding the recruitment,
operations, financing and accountability processes of non-state actors is
crucial even as the election date draws closer.
In the North West, some non-state
outfits are supported and funded by some states and local governments. In some
cases parallel or complementary security outfits are established by state
governments. For instance, aside the Hisbah in Kano, the government recruited and
trained 395 security guards to curb the menace of insecurity and unemployment.
Militant youths called Area boys are major players in electoral politics and
security in Sokoto state. In Kano, Kaduna, Katsina states with the history of
youth militancy, particularly the yan’daba, electoral politics is always an
opportunity to perpetrate violence on behalf of their principals. The cases of
raids and mass killings by bandits in southern Kaduna are also attracting non
state security response from the communities.
In the North East, the continued
encroachment and establishment of a caliphate by insurgents has cast doubts on
the conduct of elections in the region in 2015. In the North Central region,
the rise and dominance of militia and vigilante groups operating outside the
control of states is an on-going issue. The remoteness of the land makes it
poorly policed which in turn increases the proliferation of SALWs.
In the South South, the ex-militants,
cult groups and other dangerous groups supporting the PDP is creating security
concerns. It is feared that the existence of these groups may lead to the
creation of counter armed groups for opposition parties vying for other
government level positions.
In the South West, the most
pronounced non-state actors are the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC) working
mainly as private security guards. In Ogun and Osun states, state funded
Vigilante Security outfits complement the service of the police and other
security agencies. They however carry weapons and unlicensed arms, operate
illegal detention centres and are said to be involved in extra-judicial
killings.
Migration and Internal Displacement
There is a foreshadowing of security threats from
Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) across the nation. This notion began in June
2014 when 486 suspected Boko Haram members on their way to Port Harcourt were
arrested in Aba by the Army.
In September 2014, rural bandits and cattle rustlers
allegedly stormed Zamfara State villages in Gusau LGA killing over 35 people
displacing hundreds of people. Many villagers fled after a coordinated attack
on their respective communities and camped at Damba Model Primary School.
Hundreds of refugees including children besieged classroom blocks where they
spent days in suspense, receiving emergency assistance from the state and local
authorities. Others took refuge in Yandoto, Mada, Marke, Kwatarkwashi, Faskari,
Gusau, the capital city and the neighbouring Katsina state.
In
the South South, there are suspected refugees from Mali, North East and South
East Nigeria. The prevalent belief in
the region is that these refuges are imminent threats to the security of 2015
General Elections.
In
the South West illegal aliens from West African countries such as Benin
Republic, Togo and Ghana have been reported to move en-masse into Nigeria
illegally through the three states (Lagos, Ogun and Oyo) that border with Benin
Republic. Some of these immigrants are involved in trans-border crimes such as
smuggling of small arms which often are bought by politicians to arm their
thugs. Also, citizens fleeing from Boko Haram insurgents in the North East
often flee to the South West state of Lagos though the state itself recently
witnessed one foiled and one successful attack by the same insurgents.
The
impact of this migration will be immediate humanitarian crises, escalation of
Sexual and Gender based Violence (SGBV), disenfranchisement of IDPs, near
impossibility to conduct elections in affected states and inadequacy in
existing infrastructure of IDP receiving states.
Recent Developments within the State
Houses of Assembly
Adamawa
State House of Assembly succeeded in impeaching Governor Nyako while the Borno
State House of Assembly removed its majority leader. In the North Central
region, there have been failed attempts by the Nasarawa State PDP dominated
House of Assembly to impeach Governor Tanko Almakura, deepening inter-party
rivalry between PDP and APC.
The
Imo State House of Assembly which was predominantly and originally PDP moved
almost en masse with Governor Rochas Okorocha when he became governor under
APGA. Though there is disenchantment with the current governor’s achievements,
Governor Okorocha wishes to retain the state. In Edo state, there is discord in
the House of Assembly resulting from the perceived plot by PDP lawmakers to
impeach the Governor, the Deputy Governor and the Speaker of the House of
Assembly.
In
the South West, the Lagos State Speaker is being persecuted by the Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) for an alleged N600 million financial
crimes. In Ondo State, there have been rumors that Governor Olusegun Mimiko
intends decamp to PDP. If this happens, most members of the State House of
Assembly may follow suit.
Presence and impact of the activities of the
military, police and other security agencies
The insurgency in
the North East persists in spite of the state of emergency and heavy military
deployment to the region. The presence of the military in the South East states
restored some sense of public safety among the populace particularly due to the
significant reduction in incidences of kidnapping. This sense of public safety
has nurtured a culture of healthy civil-military relation, and if maintained,
will ensure the preservation of security before, during and after the 2015
elections.
Due
to the interest of the President Goodluck Jonathan to capture the South West in
order to bolster his purported second term ambition, the president made two key
appointments - Minister of State for Defence and the Minister of Police
Affairs. These two appointments are strategic and its usefulness is perceived
to have played out during the Ekiti and Osun elections.
The perceived
partisanship of security agencies by openly embarking on show of force, deployment
of masked personnel, indiscriminate shooting in the air, arrest of opposition party chieftains are
grounds for citizens losing confidence in the security agencies.
Violent Hot
Spots
We categorized the states according to the perceived
level of threat using traffic light signals (green, amber and red); green
indicating stability/lowest threat states and red indicating the highest threat
level/ most volatile states. The measures used for the categorization include
history of violence, degree of control by incumbent and relationship with the
federal government, stability of internal state party politics, existence of
terrorist/militant activity, state of emergency or communal/religious conflict,
bid for second term by incumbent governor, zoning arrangement, jostle for
federal and state legislative positions etc. Most states fit into various
categories based on comparison within their region and not on the scale of
risks nationally.
- RED: NC – Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa; NE – Borno, Yobe, Adamawa and Taraba; NW – Kaduna, Kano, Zamfara; SS – Rivers; Akwa Ibom; Edo; SE – Enugu and Imo; SW – Lagos
- AMBER: NE – Bauchi and Gombe; NW – Jigawa, Katsina, Sokoto; SE –Abia Anambra, and Ebonyi; SW: Ondo, Oyo, Ogun; NC: Kogi, Niger
- GREEN: NC – Kwara; NW – Kebbi, SS – Cross River and Bayelsa; SW: Osun and Ekiti
Synthesis of
Key Risk Factors
- a. Inability of electorates to obtain their Permanent Voters Card and register during PVC/CVR exercises.
- b. The issue of zoning and religious balancing is a major risk factor if not well handled.
- c. Political assassination, kidnapping, armed robbery and bombings may escalate as we approach 2015. The nexus between drugs, arms and crimes that has not been effectively contained.
- d. The creation of additional 30,027 Polling Units with a distribution formula of the North having more than half of the new PU allocations. Southern political leaders are openly canvassing for the resignation or removal of INEC chairman on this basis.
- e. The recent order by President Goodluck Jonathan that INEC should print sensitive electoral materials at the Nigeria Printing and Minting Company, a subsidiary of the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Mitigating
Factors and Recommendations
- a. INEC should ensure the proper capturing of voter details; ensure it uses the card reader for voter verification during the 2015 polls and commence early preparation to ensure electoral materials reach the rural and coastal communities timely.
- b. INEC should activate and institutionalise its Inter-agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES), ensuring that the committee plans for the three phases of the elections - Pre-Election, Election Day and Post-Election Day.
- c. INEC, National Orientation Agency, media and Civil Society Organisations need to embark on massive and sustained voter education, peace education and general civic education aimed at ensuring that there is violence free election in Adamawa and during the February 2015 General Elections.
- d. INEC should shelve the creation of the proposed 30,027 additional PUs till after the next general elections. This will calm frayed nerves and make the commission to focus on preparations for 2015 polls.
- e. The Government and security agencies should provide adequate policing to dislodge terrorist camps, dismantle cult groups and forestall intimidation of the electorate.
