ADAMAWA STATE: Election Security Threat Assessment

Key Risk Factors:

·          Nearly half of the state (mostly in northern and central parts) is perceived to be insecure either due to insurgency and activities of restive youths that are thugs.

·          From experience of the nature of insurgency in the northeast, there may be infiltration of Internally Displaced Persons’ (IDP) camps in the state by insurgents who may already be disguising in these camps as IDPs.

·         The heavy security presence in the state capital Yola appears to have impacted on the civilian population.

Key Mitigating Factors:

·          Security forces should increase their monitoring and surveillance of all interested parties in the State;

·          The activities of the State House of Assembly should be closely monitored too because of the recent trend of impeachment processes;

·          The IDP camps should be fully secured to ensure that they are not infiltrated by insurgents, thugs or hoodlums; and

·         Security forces should take due care to ensure that they do not provoke the local population through overzealous acts of some of its officers.

Introduction

Consequent upon the impeachment of Governor Murtala Nyako in on 11^th June 2014, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has scheduled October 11^th 2014 as the date for the by-election for governorship election in Adamawa State. The by-election is of significance in three main respects as it will (i) serve to prove whether INEC can consolidate on the success recorded in the recently held Osun State governorship election (ii) test the capacity of security agencies involved the conduct of election; and more importantly (iii) serve as a litmus test for the conduct of 2105 elections in the three states of the northeast currently under emergency rule.

Brief History of Adamawa State

Adamawa State was created on 27^th August 1991 by the military administration of General Ibrahim Babangida when the defunct Gongola State was split into Adamawa and Taraba States. Adamawa State is bounded in the north by Borno State, in the east by Gombe and Taraba States, and in the south by Taraba. The state which covers an area of 38,823 km² has total population of 3,178,950 in 2006 and is administratively divided into 21 Local Government Areas (LGAs) and 37 Development Areas (DAs). The DAs were created by the state government to further spread development to the rural areas.  Agriculture is the predominant economic activity in the state, mostly practiced at subsistence level. Politically, the state is divided into three senatorial zones – Adamawa north, central and south, and 21 state constituencies in the state House of Assembly. INEC had registered 1,529,636 voters for the October 11 bye-election in the state.

The senatorial zones and their composition are:

Senatorial Zone	LGAs	Total Population
Adamawa North (A)	Madagali, Maiha, Michika, Mubi North, Mubi South	682,026
Adamawa Central (B)	Demsa, Ganye, Guyuk, Jada, Lamurde, Mayo-Belwa, Numan, Shelleng, Toungo	1,249,580
Adamawa South (C)	Fufore, Girei, Gombi, Hong, Song, Yola North, Yola South	1,247,344

Adamawa state is culturally diverse, being home to about 80 different ethnic groups, with Fulani being predominant. Fulfulde (language of the Fulani) is widely spoken by majority of the people in the state due largely to the hegemonic role played by the Fulani rulers in the aftermath of the Fulani Jihad by Usman Danfodio in the 19^th Century and subsequent developments. Consequently, a traditional system of administration being relic of the former colonial Native Authority system exists headed by the Lamido Adamawa as the Chairman, Council of Chiefs.  Other emirates also exist that roughly fit into the boundaries of the major ethnic groups that make up the state. The traditional rulers though significant in local administration have no clearly defined constitutional role and are supposed to be non partisan

Political Developments in Adamawa

Since its creation in 1991, Adamawa State was administered by eight governors, four of them military administrators. The first civilian governor of the state, Alhaji Abubakar Saleh Michika was elected on the platform of the National Republican Convention (NRC). Michika governed the state from 2^nd January 1992 – 17^th November, 1993 in opposition to the predominant Social Democratic Party that won the June 12 1993 presidential elections that was annulled. After years of military interregnum, Boni Haruna of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ruled from 29^th May 1999 – 29^th April 2007, a period that launched Adamawa into the mainstream of national politics for being in the ruling party. Murtala Nyako continued to extend the PDP rule from 29^th May 2007 – 26^th February, 2008; and 29^th April 2008 – 15^th July, 2014. Nyako’s rule was briefly punctuated by a tribunal judgment that annulled the election which paved way for James Barka (26^th February, 2008 – 29^th April, 2008) as Acting Governor. Murtala Nyako’s second term was also briefly punctuated when Alhaji Umaru Fintiri became the Acting Governor from 27^th January, 2012 to 8^th February, 2012. The recent defection of Governor Nyako to the All Progressives Congress in November 2013 and developments thereafter led to his impeachment on 15^th July 2014 and subsequent emergence of Alhaji Umaru Fintiri, erstwhile speaker of the Adamawa State House of Assembly as Acting Governor for the second time. A Federal High Court ruled on 8^th October 2014 in Abuja that Nyako’s former deputy Bala James Ngilari who never decamped to the APC did not resign his appointment. Ngilari was immediately sworn in as governor to complete the remaining period. 

From these developments, a number of important lessons could be discerned in the politics of Adamawa State which is characterized by (i) keen contest between political parties e.g. the annulment of Nyako’s election and the conduct of fresh elections thereafter, (ii) intra party squabbles that is characterized by poor relations between the legislature and executive leading to Governor Nyako’s impeachment on July 15^th 2014, and (iii) power swing towards and away from the central government evidenced by the state being controlled even if briefly by NRC and APC (opposition parties) and PDP (ruling party) contrary to the situation in neighbouring states like Bauchi and Taraba that have consistently been politically identified with the central government.

The swearing-in of Bala Ngilari as the governor of Adamawa, no doubt unexpectedly came with new challenges namely, the cancellation of the governorship bye-election in the State. The APC believes that this development was manipulated by the ruling PDP for fear of defeat and so the swearing-in of Bala Ngilari as governor only amounts to postponing the possibility of APC taking back the State in February 2015.

Another challenge is the perceived disquiet within the PDP between the supporters of Ngilari the new governor and the former acting governor Ahmadu Fintiri who has already filed an appeal.  Both parties are from the same local government area, Madagali however Ngilari is a Christain while Fintiri is a Muslim. This could introduce a religious dimension to intra party politics of PDP in the State.

New Governor of Adamawa State: Bala James Ngilari

Barrister Ngilari was until his coming to politics a respected lawyer and a successful business man in the northeast. Ngilari served as deputy governor to the former governor Murtala Nyako but unlike his governor,  he never defected to the APC. His emergence as the new governor is likely to be contested by his fellow party men if he shows interest in becoming governor of Adamawa in 2015

Synthesis of security threats

In the aftermath of the cancellation of the proposed bye-election in Adamawa, the following threats are likely to emerge

·         Nearly half of the state (mostly in northern and central parts) is perceived to be insecure either due to insurgency and activities of restive youths that are thugs.

·         From experience of the nature of insurgency in the northeast, there may be infiltration of Internally Displaced Persons’ (IDP) camps in the state by insurgents who may already be disguising in these camps as IDPs.

·         There is the perceived feeling that the bye-election was cancelled by the national PDP for fear of defeat.

·         The heavy security presence in the state capital Yola appears to have impacted on the civilian population there was a report of an eight year old pupil that was shot by a stray bullet while in school.

Potential Flashpoints

The following areas are considered volatile in Adamawa State

·         The entire Madagali local government area where insurgency is most intense shares  borders with Gwoza local government area of Borno State;

·         Michika local government area which is close to Madagali;

·         Mubi North and South local government areas due to threats by insurgents;

·         Maiha due to fear of insurgency;

·         Jimeta (Yola North) due to presence of IDPs and restive youths who are thugs; and

·         Girei due to same reasons as Jimeta.

Recommendations

·         Security forces should increase their monitoring and surveillance of all interested parties in the State;

·         The activities of the State House of Assembly should be closely monitored too because of the recent trend of impeachment processes;

·         Communities hosting IDPs and the IDP camps should be fully secured to ensure that they are not infiltrated by insurgents, thugs or hoodlums; and

·         Security forces should take due care to ensure that they do not provoke the local population through overzealous acts of some of its officers.